Total cuts output target, capex budget: UpdateOREANDA-NEWS. September 24, 2015. Total has cut its 2017 production target by about 200,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) to 2.6mn boe/d, with about half of the cut coming from project delays and the other half from reduced capital expenditure.

Delayed projects include Martin Linge offshore Norway, which has slipped from 2016 to 2017-18, and Tempa Rossa in Italy, delayed from 2016 to 2018. But the company includes expected output from the massively-delayed Kashagan project in Kazakhstan from 2017 in its projections. Total now expects the company's output to be "not far from 2.8mn boe/d" in 2019.

Total will reduce its capital expenditure (capex) budget to \\$20bn-21bn next year from \\$23bn-24bn in 2015, and is targeting annual production growth of 6-7pc between 2014 and 2017.

"Main drivers for production growth include 20 major start-ups, eight of which are in 2015, and increasing production efficiency," the company said today. Output growth is expected to average about 5pc a year between 2014 and 2019.

Total plans to cut capex further from 2017, to "a sustainable level" of \\$17bn-19bn/yr. The firm expects this level of capex to deliver 1-2pc/yr of production growth after 2019.

The company has also increased its target for reducing annual operating expenses (opex), to \\$3bn from \\$2bn by 2017, compared with its plans announced in September last year, thanks to this year's performance and future cost deflation. The \\$1bn increase in opex savings comes from the firm's upstream division.

Total has aimed to achieve \\$1.2bn of opex savings this year alone, and said today that 66pc of this target had already been reached by July, putting it on track to exceed the 2015 savings target by unspecified amount.

"Capital discipline, further opex reduction and growing production will deliver improving cash flows. The group confirms organic free cash flow will cover the dividend by 2017 at \\$60/bl," the company said.

Total is likely to maintain the dividend next year, chief finance officer Patrick de la Chevardiere said. "Patrick Pouyanne and myself do not want to be the first ones to cut the dividend," he said.

Total's breakeven oil price is currently around \\$70-80/bl, and Total aims to bring it down to about \\$45/bl in 2019, according to Chevardiere.

"We are preparing the group to face low oil prices for a long period of time," he said. Chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said that "a big jump" in the price of oil is unlikely next year, while an increase to \\$60/bl is possible.

The company kept its 2015-17 asset disposal target unchanged at \\$10bn, despite already agreeing some \\$3.5bn of sales so far this year. The \\$10bn of proceeds "is enough for us to balance our cash flow projection", Chevardiere said.

Total is planning to allocate more capital to its downstream division — about 25pc compared with 20pc previously — with the remaining 75pc going to upstream.

Chevardiere said the company is not planning to sanction any projects in the next "one or two years".

Total has also changed its exploration strategy. "We were overstating the chance of success in our high risk and frontier domain prospects," said senior vice president for exploration Kevin McLachlan.

Going forward, only a quarter of the company's drilling activity will be concentrated in "frontier with strong value potential", while half will be focused on core and emerging basins, and a quarter on near-field exploration.

Total is aiming to add more than 500mn boe/yr of resources through exploration with finding costs of less than \\$3/bl. It is budgeting \\$1.5bn-2bn/yr to drill over 40 wells/yr.

But if Total wants to achieve annual output growth of 2pc, it needs to add 1.2bn boe/yr to its portfolio, Pouyanne said. "What we expect is 500mn boe coming from exploration and 700mn boe coming from acquisition of undeveloped resources," he said.

The company said it is still enjoying high refining margins in Europe, but is budgeting for lower margins going forward.