Fitch to Rate MSJP Commercial Mortgage Securities Trust 2015-HAUL Certificates; Presale Issued
Fitch expects to rate the transaction and assign Rating Outlooks as follows:
--\\$59,000,000a Class A notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$59,000,000ab Class X-A notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$56,000,000ab Class X-B notes 'A-sf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$31,700,000a Class B notes 'AA-sf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$24,300,000a Class C notes 'A-sf; Outlook Stable;
--\\$32,000,000a Class D notes 'BBB-sf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$23,000,000a Class E notes 'BBsf'; Outlook Stable;
a. Privately placed pursuant to Rule 144A.
b. Notional amount and interest-only.
The expected ratings are based on information provided by the issuer as of Sept. 21, 2015.
The certificates represent the beneficial ownership in the trust, the primary asset of which is one loan having an aggregate principal balance in the trust of \\$170.0 million as of the cut-off date. The trust is primarily secured by the first priority mortgages on the borrower's fee simple and leasehold interests in 105 self-storage properties.
The loan's sponsor is AMERCO, a Nevada corporation, which is the holding company that owns 100% of U-Haul International, Inc., a Nevada corporation. The mortgage loan was co-originated by Morgan Stanley Bank, N.A. and JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Fully Amortizing Loan: The loan is structured with a 20-year amortization schedule providing full amortization over the term of the loan. The loan has a Fitch LTV of 77.2% and a Fitch DSCR of 1.24x, inclusive of an amortization factor of 75%.
Experienced Sponsorship and Management: AMERCO (NASDAQ: UHAL), the parent company of U-Haul is the nation's leading do-it-yourself moving company with a network of over 17,400 locations across North America. Founded by L.S. Shoen in 1945 as 'U-Haul Trailer Rental Company', the industry giant has one of the largest rental fleets in the world, with over 135,000 trucks and 107,000 trailers, and 38,000 towing devices.
The portfolio is managed by U-Haul through management agreements with U-Haul subsidiaries in each of the states where the portfolio properties are located.
U-Haul owns and operates approximately 1,280 self-storage locations in the U.S. totaling roughly 491,000 units and 44.2 million sf of space.
Collateral Performance: The portfolio has exhibited year-over-year growth in both occupancy and NOI since FY 2011. Occupancy increased from 79.3% in FY 2011 to TTM June 2015 occupancy of 89.1%. NOI experienced average year-over-year growth of 8.7% over the same period with TTM June 2015 at 51.0% above the FY 2011 level.
Granular Portfolio: The loan is secured by 105 self-storage properties located across 35 states. No single property represents more than 5.79% of NOI.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Fitch found that the property could withstand a 65.0% decline in value and an approximate 47.3% decline in Fitch's net cash flow prior to experiencing \\$1 of loss to the 'AAAsf' rated classes.
Fitch performed several stress scenarios in which the Fitch net cash flow (NCF) was stressed. Fitch determined that a 52.3% reduction in Fitch's NCF would cause the notes to break even at a 1.0x DSCR, based on the actual debt service.
Fitch evaluated the sensitivity of the ratings for class A and found that an 14.3% decline in Fitch NCF would result in a one-category downgrade, while a 39.3% decline would resulting a downgrade to below investment grade.
The Rating Sensitivity section in the presale report includes a detailed explanation of additional stresses and sensitivities. Key Rating Drivers and Rating Sensitivities are further described in the accompanying presale report. The presale report is available to all investors on Fitch's web site 'www.fitchratings.com'
DUE DILIGENCE USAGE
Fitch was provided with third-party due diligence information from Deloitte & Touche LLP. The third-party due diligence information was provided on Form ABS Due Diligence-15E and focused on a comparison and re-computation of certain characteristics with respect to the mortgage loan. Fitch considered this information in its analysis and the findings did not have an impact on our analysis. A copy of the ABS Due Diligence Form-15E received by Fitch in connection with this transaction may be obtained through the link contained on the bottom of the related rating action commentary (RAC).
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