OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has upgraded Kapital Bank (KB) and Pasha Bank's (PB) Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings to 'BB-' from 'B+'. Fitch has also affirmed AccessBank's (AB) IDR at 'BBB-' and upgraded KB's Viability Rating (VR) to 'b+' from 'b'. A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary.

KEY RATING DRIVERS
KAPITAL BANK AND PASHA BANK - IDRS, SUPPORT RATINGS AND SUPPORT RATING FLOORS
The upgrades of KB and PB have been driven by upgrades of the banks' Support Ratings and upward revisions of their Support Rating Floors, and reflect a reassessment of the potential support available to the banks from the Azerbaijan authorities, in case of need. This reassessment has been driven by: (i) Fitch's focus on the banks' combined market shares, rather than their standalone positions, in considering systemic importance, given that they are part of a single group; (ii) the somewhat improved track record of sovereign support for the banking sector in light of the announced financial rehabilitation of International Bank of Azerbaijan (IBAR; BB/Rating Watch Positive); and (iii) somewhat greater emphasis in our analysis on the benefits of the banks being ultimately owned by a structure closely connected to the Azerbaijani authorities, which at least in the near term should make support more likely, in our view.

KB and PB, which are both owned by Pasha Holding, at end-1H15 had combined market shares of 14.1% in deposits (6% KB; 8.1% PB) and 8.8% of loans (5.6% KB, 3.2% PB), making them comfortably the second-largest banking group in Azerbaijan after IBAR. In Fitch's view, any sovereign support would likely be available to both of the banks, in case of need, rather than one of the institutions in isolation. In assessing potential support, Fitch also views positively (i) KB's social role in distributing pensions and other budget payments (including an exclusive mandate for social payments) through the largest branch network in the country; and (ii) KB's participation in state-related agency lending.

AB'S IDRS AND SUPPORT RATING
AB's Long-term IDR of 'BBB-' and Support Rating of '2' reflect the high probability that the bank would receive support from its international financial institution (IFI) shareholders. This view is based on (i) the IFIs' strategic commitment to microfinance lending in developing markets; (ii) the IFIs' direct ownership of AB, stemming from their participation as founding shareholders; (iii) the significant integration of IFI guidelines into AB's risk management; and (iv) Fitch's understanding that a full exit of the IFIs from the bank in the next few years is relatively unlikely.

At the same time, Fitch notes some uncertainty with respect to timely support always being provided to AB, if needed, given the fragmented nature of the shareholder structure and the limited overall strategic importance of the small microfinance bank for its IFI owners. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (AAA/Stable), KfW (AAA/Stable), International Finance Corporation and the Black Sea Trade and Development Bank each hold a direct 20% stake in AB, and a 16.5% stake is held by AccessHolding, in turn also controlled by IFIs.

KB'S VIABILITY RATING (VR)
The upgrade of KB's VR reflects the bank's extended track record of reasonable asset quality and profitability. The VR also benefits from the bank's strong capital position and only limited exposure to foreign currency risks given modest balance sheet dollarisation. On the negative side, the rating continues to reflect the weak operating environment and significant risks resulting from recent and potential future growth.

KB's retail loan book has performed reasonably well to date, with origination of NPLs (non-performing loans, 90 days overdue) at a modest 0.5% in 1H15. Asset quality is somewhat weaker in the corporate book (with lumpy, unsecured construction exposures comprising at least 26% of corporate loans or 0.6x regulatory capital), resulting in an aggregate NPL ratio of 9% at end-1H15.

However, KB remains well-capitalised following AZN100m of equity injections in 2013-2014, and the total regulatory capital adequacy ratio (CAR) stood at 19.2% at end-1H15. Loss absorption capacity is also supported by KB's solid pre-impairment profitability (equal to 9.5% of average loans, annualised, in 1H15) which has improved considerably as a result of KB's focus on retail lending.

KB's liquidity position is healthy, supported by the absence of material non-government wholesale borrowings and decent deposit collection capacity. KB is primarily deposit funded and its liquidity cushion was sufficient to withstand a 34% customer funding outflow at end-8M15.

PB'S VR
PB's VR reflects its solid capitalisation, comfortable liquidity and manageable (although somewhat deteriorated) asset quality metrics. At the same time, the rating remains constrained by (i) the weak operating environment, (ii) the bank's still limited franchise and so far quite high credit losses; and (iii) uncertainty with respect to the long-term sustainability of the bank's sizeable related party funding (42% of end-1H15 liabilities).

PB's CAR stood at 20.4% at end-1H15, sufficient to increase its LIR to around 21.3% of gross loans without breaching the 12% minimum requirement. This would have been sufficient to fully cover its NPLs (13.6% of end-1H15 loans) and restructured loans (further 7.5%). PB's margin of safety on a consolidated basis is even more significant, as the AZN128m of equity injected into PB's Georgian and recently launched Turkish subsidiary is deducted from regulatory capital. Thus, at end-1H15, the bank's Fitch Core Capital ratio was around a high 29% (end-2014: 36.2%).

PB's NPLs increased to 13.6% of gross loans at end-1H15 from 4% at end-1H14. The loan book remains highly concentrated, although the quality of the largest exposures is broadly in line with the sector.

PB's total available liquidity, net of potential wholesale funding repayments, covered 34% of its end-8M15 customer accounts. However, the funding profile is weakened by significant single name concentrations and considerable funding from related parties.

AB'S VR
AB's 'bb-' VR reflects the bank's reasonable track record of solid asset quality, performance and capitalisation, but is constrained by weaknesses in the domestic operating environment and the high level of foreign currency lending (68% at end-1H15). Although some asset quality deterioration was evident in 1H15, the bank's intrinsic creditworthiness remains commensurate with a 'bb-' rating, in Fitch's view.

At end-1H15, AB reported NPLs (loans 30 days overdue) at 2.5% of gross loans, up from 0.8% at end-2014. Restructured loans comprised a further substantial 22% of the portfolio, as the bank actively extended maturities on USD-denominated exposures following the devaluation of the manat in February 2015, and the ultimate recoverability of these loans is still to be tested.

AB's loss absorption capacity is significant, as its regulatory capital ratio stood at 20% at end-August 2015, sufficient to withstand 9% of additional credit losses. Solid pre-impairment profitability was equal to a further 6% (annualised) of average loans in 1H15. Near-term wholesale funding maturities are significant, at 32% of end-1H15 liabilities, but the available liquidity cushion at end-1H15 (including committed credit lines of USD97.5m from IFIs) was equal to 100% of the maturing facilities.

RATING SENSITIVITIES
IDRS, SUPPORT RATINGS AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR - PB AND KB
PB and KB's support-driven ratings could be upgraded in case of a further marked increase in the group's systemic importance. The ratings could also be upgraded or downgraded in case of changes in the sovereign rating (BBB-/Stable).

IDRS AND SUPPORT RATING - AB
A downward revision of Azerbaijan's Country Ceiling (BBB-) would result in a downgrade of AB's ratings. Downside risks for AB's IDRs and Support Rating could also stem from a weakening support stance of the IFIs. However, Fitch does not anticipate this scenario.

Upside potential for AB's support-driven IDRs is limited in the near term. AB will not be upgraded further if Azerbaijan's Country Ceiling is raised.

ALL BANKS' VRS
Downside pressure on the VRs could stem from a further deterioration in the operating environment, if this results in significant asset quality deterioration and a weakening of banks' capitalisation.

Conversely, any upgrades of the banks' VRs would likely require improvements in the operating environment and an extended track record of reasonable asset quality and solid capitalisation.

The rating actions are as follows:

Kapital Bank
Long-term foreign currency IDR: upgraded to 'BB-' from 'B+', Outlook Stable
Short-term foreign currency IDR: affirmed at 'B'
Viability Rating: upgraded to 'b+' from 'b'
Support Rating: upgraded to '3' from '4'
Support Rating Floor: revised to 'BB-'from 'B+'

PASHA Bank
Long-term foreign-currency IDR: upgraded to 'BB-' from 'B+'; Outlook Stable
Short-term foreign-currency IDR: affirmed at 'B'
Viability Rating: affirmed at 'b+'
Support Rating: upgraded to '3' from '5'
Support Rating Floor: revised to 'BB-' from 'No Floor'

AccessBank
Long-term IDR: affirmed at 'BBB-'; Outlook Stable
Short-term IDR: affirmed at 'F3'
Viability Rating: affirmed at 'bb-'
Support Rating: affirmed at '2'.