OREANDA-NEWS. The world has moved on from outmoded country definitions of “developing” which grouped fast-developing economies like China alongside much poorer nations including many of those in Africa, Asia and Latin America.

There is now a much wider acceptance among governments that everyone has to pull their weight, while respecting common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Governments have crossed the battle lines and are looking for workable solutions, instead of fighting over who’s to blame, the World Bank said in May.

It would be over-simplistic to think of the Paris agreement as a Sino-US deal, but America and China are the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases and it is these two countries that can set the momentum that will bring others on board. And pressure is building in China to control emissions, particularly in cities.

This is the second of a three-part series on The Barrel about the Paris climate talks. The first part was posted on Friday, September 11, looking at how governments are now looking at the benefits of climate action as well as the costs. The third part, to be posted on Friday, September 25, will consider the limitations of the UN climate process and what to expect from the Paris summit later this year.

  • US and China hold keys to global deal
  • Poor air quality in Chinese cities spurs action
  • China concerned over global climate as well as air pollution

China’s rampant use of coal for power generation has contributed to an air quality problem that has made the authorities in Beijing nervous.

Political commentators have noted that when a country is still poor, the vast majority of the population’s key concerns are basic: access to shelter, sanitation, clean water, and enough food to feed their families. When the demographic shifts and a big section of the population moves into something regarded as middle class, with those basic living requirements satisfied, people start demanding other things, like cleaner air.

In democratic countries, if enough of the voters want change, and the government won’t budge, the party in power at the time pays the price at the next general election. How this process might pan out in China would make an interesting side debate. But the key point here is that China is taking this issue seriously because it has little choice.

China’s big cities are choking on emissions from fossil fuels in an echo of the infamous “pea-soupers” — a noxious mix of Thames valley fog and coal pollutants from millions of chimneys — in which Londoners suffered in Britain’s coal-powered industrial past.

China’s capital has for many years suffered from serious air pollution. Primary sources of pollutants include exhaust emissions from Beijing’s more than five million motor vehicles, coal burning in neighboring regions, dust storms from the north and local construction dust, according to a dedicated air quality information page in the South China Morning Post.

“A particularly severe smog engulfed the city for weeks in early 2013, elevating public awareness to unprecedented levels and prompting the government to roll out emergency measures,” the paper said.

While China’s engagement on fossil fuel emissions may be driven by concerns over local air pollutants as much as greenhouse gases, this nevertheless has become a driving force for policy change, and China, among other countries, is thinking big on emissions.

A key plank of the Paris deal is national pledges — so-called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions — which set out what each country is prepared to do, so that targets and actions can be scrutinized and compared ahead of and after the talks.

As of early September 2015, many of the big economies had already submitted their INDCs to the UN, including China, America, the European Union, Japan, Russia, Canada and Mexico.

Who’s doing what?

In recent years, China overtook America as the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, and while the country’s per capita emissions are still lower than many countries in the West, China wants to curb emissions, and the country’s policies have global significance because of its sheer size.

Since China and America are the biggest players, the efforts of these two great superpowers will make the most impact in the global climate space.

So let’s take a look at both of them.

China’s INDC makes it clear that Beijing is worried about climate change, not just local air pollution. And China talks a lot about security in its climate submission documents.

“Climate change has significant impacts on global natural ecosystems, causing temperature increase and sea level rise as well as more frequent extreme climate events, all of which pose a huge challenge to the survival and development of the human race,” China said in its submission to the UN.

China is not just playing lip service to the climate problem. Asia’s economic powerhouse is in the firing line on climate change, and this is a point apparently well understood in Beijing.

“As a developing country with a population of more than 1.3 billion, China is among those countries that are most severely affected by the adverse impacts of climate change,” it said.

“China is currently in the process of rapid industrialization and urbanization, [confronted by] multiple challenges including economic development, poverty eradication, improvement of living standards, environmental protection and combating climate change,” it said.

China said its desire to cut greenhouse gas emissions is driven by a need to enhance climate resilience as well as to ensure “economic security, energy security, ecological security and food security as well as the safety of people’s life and prosperity,” but is also driven by its “sense of responsibility to fully engage in global governance.”

All noble goals, but what does China actually intend to do? China has included in its INDC a target to reduce its CO2 intensity per unit of GDP by 60%-65% by 2030 from 2005 levels, and wants to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 or earlier.

How achievable are these targets? Time will tell, but recent developments suggest China is already partway there. China in 2009 announced that it would cut its CO2 emissions intensity by 40%-45% by 2020 from the 2005 level and increase the share of non-fossil energy in primary consumption to about 15%.

By 2014, China’s CO2 per unit of GDP was 33.8% lower than 2005, while its share of renewable energy stood at 11.2% of total consumption, the country has said.

China’s installed capacity of on-grid wind power was 95.81 GW as of 2014, 90 times higher than in 2005, while solar power capacity stood at 28.05 GW in 2014, 400 times that of 2005, it said. The country’s hydro-power capacity was 300 GW in 2014, 2.57 times higher than in 2005, it said.

That makes a combined total of 424 GW of installed renewable energy capacity in China last year. To put that in perspective, China’s renewable capacity alone is roughly equivalent to the total installed power capacity of Germany, France and Italy.

Meanwhile, the European Union’s position has been clear, with agreement in October 2014 to cut economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030 from 1990 levels, moving beyond the previous goal of 20% by 2020.

What about the US?

America’s submission documents to the UN include a target to cut economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025, and to make “best efforts” to reduce them below 28% by that date.

The US does not intend to use international market-based measures to achieve its target and it cites several existing laws, regulations and measures that will continue contributing to emissions reductions.

“The United States has already undertaken substantial policy action to reduce its emissions, taking the necessary steps to place us on a path to achieve the 2020 target of reducing emissions in the range of 17% below the 2005 level in 2020,” America said in its INDC document.

“Additional action to achieve the 2025 target represents a substantial acceleration of the current pace of greenhouse gas emission reductions. Achieving the 2025 target will require a further emission reduction of 9-11% beyond our 2020 target compared to the 2005 baseline and a substantial acceleration of the 2005-2020 annual pace of reduction, to 2.3-2.8% per year, or an approximate doubling,” it said.

Importantly, America does not necessarily need additional Congressional approval on new measures to meet these targets, because existing laws provide a legal basis and the tools to cut emissions.

America has already made use of the Clean Air Act to adopt fuel economy standards for road vehicles and made use of the Energy Policy Act and the Energy Independence and Security Act to control emissions in the buildings sector.

Furthermore, the US Environmental Protection Agency is moving forward on regulations for new and existing power plants, and developing standards to address methane emissions from landfills and the oil and gas sector.

US President Barack Obama on August 3 unveiled a revised Clean Power Plan in a move he described as “the biggest, most important step we have ever taken,” to combat climate change.

The plan seeks to cut greenhouse gas emissions from US power plants by 32% by 2030 compared with 2005 levels. The plan provides individual targets for states and gives them flexibility in how they meet them, providing a potentially fertile ground for policy innovation.

The Clean Power Plan clearly faces political opposition, particularly from the most coal-dependent states, and its success remains to be seen.