OREANDA-NEWS. Opec has further increased its 2015 global oil demand growth forecast thanks to higher than expected consumption in developed economies, but cut its 2016 projection in anticipation of "slower economic momentum in Latin America and China". The producer group's forecasts of total demand and the call on its crude next year are sharply lower than the IEA's.

Opec sees global demand rising by 1.46mn b/d in 2015 — some 84,000 b/d faster than forecast last month — to 92.79mn b/d. For 2016, it pared its consumption growth projection by around 50,000 b/d to 1.29mn b/d, leading to total demand of 94.08mn b/d in next year. The IEA said last week it expects global demand to grow by 1.7mn b/d to 94.4mn b/d this year and by 1.4mn b/d to 95.8mn b/d in 2016.

Non-OPEC oil supply is likely to grow by 880,000 b/d this year to 57.43mn b/d, about 72,000 b/d slower than expected in August, because of lower than expected US production, Opec said in its September Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). The group expects 2016 non-Opec supply to increase by 160,000 b/d to 57.59mn b/d, which is 110,000 b/d slower than predicted last month, "mostly on the back of Brazil's lower estimation and the US reduction carried over from 2015".

The IEA sees non-Opec production at about 58.1mn b/d in 2015 and 57.7mn b/d next year.

Opec increased the call on its crude compared with the previous report, by 100,000 b/d to 29.3mn b/d in 2015 and by 200,000 b/d to 30.3mn b/d next year, still well below the declared output of its members. The IEA sees the call on Opec crude at 31.3mn b/d next year, an increase of 1.6mn b/d compared with 2015.

This month's MOMR includes August and July data from all Opec member countries except Libya. Saudi Arabia reported a second consecutive month-on-month output drop, with production falling by about 96,500 b/d in August to 10.27mn b/d, compared with a record high of 10.56mn b/d in June. Iraq said its August output rose by 42,000 b/d in August compared with July to 3.76mn b/d, and Iran reported a 50,000 b/d increase to 3.18mn b/d.

Using Argus data for the missing Libyan numbers, the total for August is around 31.97mn b/d and the July level 32.03mn b/d.

Global oil supply fell by 530,000 b/d month-on-month to 94.62mn b/d in August, Opec said citing preliminary data.