OREANDA-NEWS. Yesterday was another strong session, with RUB continuing to outperform EM peers. Trading activity was decent, with MICEX turnover picking up to USD 5.0bn. RUB kicked off on a stronger footing, moving below 67.00 against USD in the early trading hours. At the end of the Moscow session, RUB tested the 66.55 level, but found strong resistance there, rolling to 66.76 (+1.2%) by the close. The crude market provided a supportive background, albeit oil’s performance looked much more moderate than RUB’s yesterday, with Brent inching up to USD 46.6/bbl (+0.6%). However, this morning Brent is markedly stronger, hovering near USD 47.8/bbl. Separately, EM FX currencies traded mixed yesterday, with BRL (-1.2%) being the weakest spot. We also noted pressure in IDR (-0.5%) and KRW (-0.3%), while TRY recovered 0.9%. RUB’s strong performance in recent day does not look surprising, in our view, being just a catch-up to fundamentally justified levels. If oil stays at USD 45/bbl, we think that the market’s balanced USDRUB rate is around 65.0. The tax period is ahead of us, so perhaps RUB has some more room to appreciate.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Chernyavskaya
VTB Capital analysts