OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings says in its latest European Leveraged Loan Chart Book that the credit performance and the pace of new issue supply in the senior secured loan market remained healthy during the summer of 2015.

The number of debut single 'B'-category issuers in the leveraged loan market outpaced that in the European corporate high-yield bond market as eurozone and global market volatility contributed to secondary market spread widening and high-yield funds outflows. Long-term funding from collateralised loan obligation (CLO) investors and institutional investors offering separately managed accounts insulates the leveraged loan secondary market from public market volatility, contributing to fairly stable primary market demand.

Although most new issuance represented small issuers, at the end of July, arrangers upsized and flexed-down the pricing on an original EUR1bn covenant-lite loan to help finance private equity firm Apollo's acquisition of French glass packaging group Verallia. Accompanying bonds were downsized, illustrating the loan product's relative resilience and competitive appeal for issuers and investors so long as credit issues do not compel selling into less liquid loan secondary markets.

However, the low volume of leveraged loans issued year-to-date August 2015 compared with the same period last year reflects both the scarcity of assets and the on-going challenges faced by financial sponsors to undertake leveraged buy-outs as they compete with cash-rich strategic trade buyers and IPO markets that until recently were willing to pay premium enterprise valuation (EV) multiples for corporate assets.

Even though EV multiples have returned to pre-crisis 2007 levels, and credit markets are offering rising leverage and looser terms, financial sponsors remain less able and less willing to compete against trade buyers. Revenue growth and pricing power continue to prove challenging for many global corporates given sluggish economic recovery and excess capacity in many sectors. Trade buyers, often with the advantage of greater scale are willing to pay premium prices for European targets given low acquisition financing costs, lower return requirements and greater cost-cutting ability.

In contrast to competition for M&A, continued volatility in public equity markets could diminish competition from IPO markets and therefore increase the competitiveness of financial sponsors in vendors' auctions. In addition, sponsors have responded to the lack of deal flow by adopting the same tactics as trade buyers in pursuing M&A among their portfolio companies as in the recent combination of French private hospital chains Vedici and Vitalia by private equity firm CVC. Fitch expects new issue volumes to reach up to EUR35bn by end-2015 and estimates new issue volumes of EUR50bn in 2016.

The shift towards institutional demand and competition with the bond market for scarce assets means covenant-lite (or loose) structures will remain a primary market feature until credit issues raise concern. Deterioration in underwriting standards and an increasing number of small issuers has translated into a weaker credit quality in Fitch's leveraged credit portfolio, as 50% of outstanding issuers are rated at 'B-' or below as of end-August 2015 versus 40% at the beginning of 2014. Leverage has been trending up towards 2007-08 levels and debt structures are mainly back-ended while cash flow generation stays subdued given generally weak top-line revenue and margin performance.

Nonetheless, the share of "at-risk" issuers rated 'B-' with a Negative Outlook or below continues to decrease. It reached a new record low of 12.7% of our portfolio as of end-August 2015 vs around 15% a year ago. Consequently, we expect default rates to remain low in 2015, supported by long-dated debt maturities mainly falling due beyond 2020. Median senior debt recoveries for the portfolio are expected at around 65%, which has been stable since April 2015, although variances exist by sector and geography.

Fitch's latest "European Leveraged Loan Chart Book", is available on www.fitchratings.com or by clicking the link above. It includes updated data on primary market trends, loan performance, median credit statistics for different cohorts of issuers as well as recent trends in default and recovery rates. In this edition, the agency has also introduced statistics on "Double Luxco" structures in French deals. The data and analysis is based on Fitch's portfolio of private credit opinions, private ratings and public ratings on about 440 European leveraged credits (as of August 2015), primarily LBOs, representing about EUR380bn of committed senior and junior loan debt.

Fitch will hold a webcast today at 15:00 BST ' 10:00 EDT on the recent drivers and credit dynamics of the European high yield and leveraged loan markets. For more information, or to register, please click here: http://www.workcast.com/register?pak=8679558067032726