OREANDA-NEWS. The Bank of Russia has accomplished a reassessment of the payment schedule of external debt and the related funding sources until end-2015.

According to estimates, actual repayment in September-December 2015 may amount up to USD 35 billion out of USD 61 billion of the total external debt payments of banks and non-financial organisations, including principal and interests. Intragroup payments and liabilities which are likely to be carried forward or refinanced account for the remainder. The assessment is based on historical data and a survey of major companies.

According to the international investment position and current data on assets and liabilities of credit institutions, the banking sector and non-financial organisations have accumulated foreign liquid assets in the amount of about USD 135 billion. The Bank of Russia estimates current account balance, which is used as a funding source for external debt repayment, to stand at about USD 28 billion with oil price at USD 60 per barrel, about \\$25 billion with oil price at \\$50 per barrel, and about USD 20 billion with oil price at USD 40-45 per barrel. Besides, the unused balance amounts to about \\$14 billion of the total USD 50-billion limit on refinancing operations in foreign currency established by the Bank of Russia.

Thus, the Bank of Russia does not expect excess demand in the FX market in the run-up to external debt repayments. The Bank of Russia does not forecast considerable portfolio investment outflow and higher tensions in the FX market due to foreign currency purchases for import contract payments.

In order to estimate actual external debt payments the Bank of Russia surveyed top 30 Russian companies, whose payments cover up to 60% of total repayments by non-financial organisations till the end of 2015. The estimate was aimed at exposing intragroup payments indicated as external in transaction specifications and which are likely to be carried forward. According to the companies' data, the share of such payments in the total external debt payments will stand at 74% in September, 59% in October, 8% in November, and 48% in December 2015.

Intragroup payment adjustments show that monthly debt payments by major companies have no pronounced peaks till the end of the year. Thus, the debt payment spikes observed in statistics based on transaction types are mainly related to intragroup payments. In the second half of 2015, the monthly average debt service payments of major companies will be two-threefold lower than those made in 2014 Q4 - 2015 Q1.