Fitch Rates Greater Orlando Aviation Authority, FL's 2015A Bonds 'AA-'; Affirms Outstanding
GOAA also has \\$77 million in outstanding parity bank loans series 2013A and 2013B, which are not rated by Fitch.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The rating reflects the airport's position as a leading origination and destination (O&D) market, with a strong traffic base of over 17 million enplanements and a diverse carrier mix. GOAA benefits from a conservative debt structure, low airline costs, a strong liquidity position and low leverage of 2.5x, and healthy debt service coverage ratios. GOAA's updated capital program and financial plan is substantial in size at an estimated \\$3 billion with partial funding from anticipated additional borrowings on two lien levels.
Revenue Risk - Volume: Stronger
Stable Traffic Levels With Diverse Carrier Mix: The airport's high level of O&D traffic at 95% of 17.5 million enplanements has provided stable performance in recent years. Enplanements are influenced by tourism and leisure, showing modest growth in recent years. However, recent traffic data is notably positive, increasing by 7.2% over the first 10 months of fiscal 2015 (fiscal year ends in September). The airport benefits from a well-diversified mix of carriers, with the largest carrier (Southwest/Airtran combined, rated BBB, Positive Outlook) representing approximately 30% of enplanements.
Revenue Risk - Price: Stronger
Competitive Cost Structure: The airport has historically maintained a relatively low airline cost structure, with cost per enplaned passenger (CPE) at \\$4.59 in fiscal 2014. Costs are estimated to rise slightly to \\$5.75 for 2015. The authority's CPE will rise as borrowings come online for capital improvements, but levels are expected to remain competitive for a large hub airport. Following the expiration of the airport's hybrid use and lease agreement in October 2013, GOAA has been setting rates by resolution but applying a hybrid compensatory rate-making methodology for use of terminal facilities and a residual rate-making methodology for the airfield. Participating carriers (representing approximately 95% of passenger traffic) are entitled to net revenue sharing via a
three-year agreement expiring in September 2016.
Infrastructure Development/Renewal: Midrange
Capital Program Expanded: The 2013 - 2018 capital improvement plan (CIP) currently totals \\$1.14 billion. Major projects include the South APM Project; improvements to the north terminal complex; and improvements to Airside 4. The \\$1.8 billion South Terminal Project is a separate project to meet long-term passenger growth that is contingent on passenger levels, with borrowing currently expected to begin in 2016. The funding plan for the five-year CIP includes 50% in debt (general revenue and passenger facility charge (PFC)) while the South Terminal Project assumes about 80% debt funding (general revenue and PFC). Grants and airport funds will cover remaining costs.
Debt Structure: Stronger
Conservative Debt Structure: The airport has a strong debt structure, with all fixed rate debt and a manageable amortization profile. Debt service on existing obligations falls after 2021, with new debt for capital improvements expected to be layered on resulting in a relatively flat debt service. Covenants and reserve requirements are typical for an airport credit; however, GOAA intends to make amendments to its bond resolution including revising the PFC use to become a direct offset to debt service versus pledged revenue at 125% of annual PFC-applied debt service. These amendments do not impact the credit of the GOAA bonds.
Financial Metrics
Strong Financial Profile: The airport currently has stable financial operations drawing from diverse sources of operating revenues, adequate senior lien debt coverage at 2.06x in 2014, and relatively low overall leverage at 2.5x net debt to CFADS. To the extent the full financing plan moves forward, with issuance of senior and subordinate bonds, overall leverage will rise to 8.4x and total debt coverage may narrow down to the 1.2x level. These weaker metrics could pressure the authority ratings. Strong liquidity is noted with 616 days cash on hand based on cash reserves through March 2015 and 2015 budgeted expenses.
Peer Group
GOAA's peers include other south Florida airports with similar market characteristics, such as Tampa Hillsborough County (rated 'A+' by Fitch) and Broward County Fort Lauderdale (rated 'A'), with GOAA's higher rating reflecting a stronger liquidity position, lower leverage, and stronger all-in coverage metrics.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Negative - Unexpected downturns or volatility in airport traffic operations.
Negative - Erosion of the airport's current strong financial position and rate-setting flexibility.
Negative - Upward modifications to the five-year capital and financing plans that elevate borrowing requirements.
Positive - Given the airport's strong rating, upward rating movement is unlikely.
TRANSACTION SUMMARY OF CREDIT
The series 2015A bonds are senior lien obligations of GOAA and are being issued to finance certain capital improvements of the Authority, and refinance certain draws on lines of credit. The new issue is estimated to total \\$218 million. The proposed bonds are expected to be issued in fixed rate mode and have a final maturity in 2045.
Orlando is one of the nation's busiest O&D airports, serving 17.5 million enplaned passengers in fiscal 2014. O&D traffic makes up the bulk of the airport's enplanements at about 95%, benefiting from demand for local tourist destinations and convention business as well as the expanding local economy. Fiscal 2014 enplanements remained relatively stable, growing at a marginal 0.6% over a year prior. However, traffic has shown robust growth in fiscal 2015, growing 7.2% over the first ten months versus the same period in fiscal 2014. International enplanements continued to show strong growth, reaching 2.1 million in 2014, or 5.1% over the year prior (follows increases of 5.2% in 2013 and 9.9% in 2012). International enplanements have increased by 15.6% year to date. Service is now offered to 49 international destinations (30 year-round, 19 seasonal).
Operating revenues increased by 4.9% to \\$396.5 million in fiscal 2014, building on 3.8% revenue growth in fiscal 2013 and 2.3% growth in fiscal 2012. Participating airline revenue increased 17.3% as a result of a new baggage system charge. Non-participating airline revenue decreased 11.7% due in large part to Aero Mexico becoming a participating airline during fiscal 2014. Overall nonairline revenues increased 1.8%, and concession revenues decreased 1.6%. Operating expenses increased by 3.2% in 2014 due to increases in baggage handling services costs, safety and security and salaries/benefits.
Resulting debt service coverage levels for fiscal 2014 were healthy at 2.06x for senior debt and 1.93x on all obligations, above 2013 results and in-line with Fitch's base case expectations.
For fiscal 2015 year to date through June, operating revenues are up 8.3% over the same period a year prior and in line with budget, while year to date operating expenses are up 15.1% over the same period a year prior, and \\$8 million below budget. Management estimates resulting debt service coverage levels for fiscal 2015 will be 2.07x on the senior lien and 1.94x for all obligations, consistent with Fitch's expectations.
Since November 2013, the Authority has set its rates and charges by resolution. The resolution, which has no expiration date, provides for a compensatory rate-making methodology for use of the terminal facilities, including certain activity based charges for use of the baggage system, and a residual rate-making methodology to establish landing fees for the use of the airfield. A rate agreement is also in effect which entitles signatories to share in certain revenues remaining after the payment of Authority debt service and operating expenses. The current rate agreement runs through September 2016. Fourteen carriers have signed the agreement and are eligible for revenue sharing, representing approximately 95% of passenger traffic. In Fitch's view the airline cost recovery mechanisms together with non-airline revenue contributions provide solid operating cashflows with robust coverage levels.
The authority continues to maintain strong balance sheet flexibility with \\$393 million of unencumbered fund balances as of March 2015, equating to 616 days cash on hand based on fiscal 2015 budgeted operating expenses. CPE was low at \\$4.59 in 2014, down from \\$5.65 a year prior due to lower terminal area rents and a higher proportion of revenue sharing under the new agreement. CPE is expected to rise to \\$5.75 in 2015 due to higher terminal and landing fee rates (stemming from higher O&M expense), and lower revenue sharing payments. During the five year projection period, the Authority expects CPE to rise to the \\$10 level as more revenues are retained for use towards the CIP. Due to the desirability of Orlando's service area, Fitch does not view this increase as a material concern. Furthermore Fitch notes that cash reserves and CPE levels have been well managed historically, with the airport generating significant revenues from non-airline sources including concessions and PFCs.
The 2013 - 2018 capital improvement plan (CIP) currently totals \\$1.14 billion and includes \\$430 million of projects previously approved by the airlines (38% of total CIP). Major projects include \\$427 million for the South automated people mover (APM) Project; \\$451 million for the north terminal complex; \\$114 million for Airside 4; \\$111 million for Airfield projects; \\$19 million for ground transportation projects; and \\$15 million for other projects. The current plan is expected to be 19% funded with general airport revenue bonds (prior and future), 30% with PFC backed debt (prior and future), 15% with PFCs on a pay-go basis, and 36% from other funds, including grants and GOAA funds. The series 2015 bonds will help to fund North Terminal ticket lobby improvements, Airside 4 improvements, and the Airside 1 and 3 APM. The \\$1.8 billion south terminal project, which is not included in the five-year CIP, will not be built until the airport hits triggers of 38.5 million total passengers and 2 million inbound international passengers. Total passengers in 2014 were 35.2 million. The airport's enplanement forecasts anticipate reaching the trigger level in 2016.
The authority's updated forecast incorporates the effects of the full capital program, including the South Terminal, and assumes average enplanement growth of 3% for the 2014 - 2022 period. Resulting senior coverage is 1.8x or better, and all in coverage of 1.4x or better; leverage rises to 8x net debt/CFADS. Fitch's forecasts, including base and rating cases, assume additional borrowings for the South Terminal project will go forward beginning in 2016. Fitch's base case considers low and steady enplanement growth of 1.2% from 2016 onwards, consistent with historical averages, while the rating case models a recessionary enplanement drop of 8% in the 2019 - 2020 period as the South Terminal comes online. Even with the inclusion of the new terminal and its associated borrowing, Fitch views the financial profile as stable, with senior coverage remaining above 1.6x in the base case and above 1.5x in the rating case, and all in coverages remaining 1.2x or better. Leverage increases to 8x in the base case and reaches 10x in the rating case, but would be expected to decrease as the new debt amortizes. Depending on the traffic and revenue outlook, the lower metrics under the rating case, if realized, could pressure the authority ratings.
Security
The bonds are secured by a pledge of net revenues generated from the operations of the airport. PFC revenues, limited to a maximum of 1.25x annual debt service for PFC-eligible projects financed through airport revenue bonds, are also pledged. The authority intends to make amendments to its bond resolution, revising the use of PFCs to be applied as direct offsets to debt service.
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