OREANDA-NEWS. September 15, 2015. Turkey's banks are still vulnerable to shifts in global investor sentiment as they continue to raise foreign currency (FC) debt and remain the country's main external borrowers, continuing a trend since 2010, says Fitch Ratings. Turkey is one of the emerging markets most exposed to a rise in US interest rates. But our base case is that the country will avoid a sudden and prolonged loss of market access, or a rapid reversal of capital flows.

Turkish banks' external debt rose by USD5bn to USD178bn in 1H15, according to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, a significantly slower rate of increase than in previous years, mainly due to exchange rate effects as the dollar appreciated against the euro and the lira. Corporate debt was flat at USD134bn in 1H15 and sovereign foreign liabilities fell by USD17bn to USD107bn (mainly due to revaluation).

Positively for banks' risk profiles, the gradual lengthening of debt maturities continued in 1H15, following a trend that began in 2H13. FC borrowings with initial maturities of less than 12 months fell marginally in 1Q15 and 2Q15, the first absolute quarterly reductions since 1Q09. Banks' short-term debt fell to 51% of the total from a peak of 61% at end-1H13. In our view, this reflects successive increases in reserve requirements on short-term FC debt and banks' revised assessments of the risks of short-term borrowing.

The proportion of FC short-term debt remains high, but we expect banks' FC liquidity positions to remain reasonable over the next 12 months. We estimate the sector's FC debt-service requirements over 12 months, in case of a complete market shutdown (net of expected roll-overs of more stable funding sources), at around USD80bn. Turkish banks' available FC liquidity (funds placed under the central bank's reserve option mechanism, balances in foreign correspondent accounts and maturing short-term currency swaps) broadly matches this amount.

The central bank's monetary policy "roadmap" published on 18 August demonstrates its commitment to ensuring banks have access to sufficient FC liquidity to meet their short-term external debt payments. The roadmap indicates that banks' FC borrowing limits will be raised. But Turkey's FC reserves are limited, which may restrict the extent to which it can provide FC liquidity to its banks.