Fitch Affirms Denmark's Nykredit Realkredit at 'A'/Stable
Fitch has also affirmed wholly-owned subsidiary Nykredit Bank's Long-term IDR at 'A' with a Stable Outlook, and Support Rating at '1'.
A full list of rating actions is available at the end of this commentary.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
VR, IDRS, AND SENIOR DEBT
Nykredit's ratings reflect the bank's strong Danish franchise as the leading domestic mortgage lender, resilient asset quality, and solid capitalisation. The ratings also factor in the group's modest profitability and reliance on wholesale funding, although the latter is mitigated by a large, deep and liquid domestic covered bond market.
Nykredit's asset quality remains strong, despite an over 20% property price correction in Denmark since the 2007 peak. Impaired loans are stabilising and Fitch expects the quality of mortgage lending to remain resilient in 2015 and 2016, supported by an improving Danish economy and the group's conservative risk appetite. Management aims to grow and diversify its franchise in Denmark, although Fitch expects this to be achieved without increasing the bank's risk appetite. This is because growth will focus on broadening the bank's product offering with existing clients.
Nykredit Bank's impaired loans remain elevated, although given the subsidiary's limited size, they are not expected to pose a material risk for the group.
Nykredit's capitalisation compares well with that of domestic and international peers. Low risk weights on mortgage loans boost capital ratios and leverage is acceptable in a European context, particularly given the bank's resilient asset quality. Low profitability has at times limited internal capital generation, however.
Nykredit has sound cost management, but as a result of its low-margin mortgage lending, loan impairment charges (LICs) have absorbed 40% to 60% of pre-impairment operating profits since 2011. Fitch expects LICs to reduce in 2015 and 2016, underpinned by a stabilising Danish economy, supporting the bank's improving profitability.
As a mortgage institution, Nykredit is obliged by law to fund its mortgage lending through the issuance of mortgage bonds. Danish mortgage bonds are effectively pass-through securities where the maturity of the bonds match the interest term on the underlying mortgage loan. The volume of short-term bonds at Nykredit has declined, but over a quarter still mature within one year. We believe the risk of wholesale market dislocation is partly offset by Nykredit's strong and sophisticated approach to its wholesale funding requirements, and this dependence on short-term wholesale funding is also partially mitigated by structural features in the Danish mortgage bond market.
Fitch expects continued strong demand for Danish mortgage bonds in light of the need for domestic financial institutions, insurance companies and pension funds to hold highly liquid, high quality, securities in domestic currency. This is reinforced by a fairly limited outstanding volume of Danish government bonds. Nonetheless, maintaining a significant liquidity portfolio to mitigate refinancing risks is key for Nykredit's current ratings. The group's strategy to lengthen the maturity profile of its liabilities and Denmark's law on mortgage bond maturity extension will help reduce refinancing risk.
SUPPORT RATING AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR
Nykredit's '5' Support Rating and Support Rating Floor of 'No Floor' reflect Fitch's view that senior creditors can no longer rely on receiving full extraordinary support from the sovereign in case of need. In Fitch's view, the EU's Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) is now sufficiently progressed to provide a framework for resolving banks that is likely to require senior creditors participating in losses, if necessary, instead of or ahead of a bank receiving sovereign support.
In the EU, BRRD has been effective in member states since 1 January 2015, including minimum loss absorption requirements before resolution financing or alternative financing (eg, government stabilisation funds) can be used. Full application of BRRD, including the bail-in tool, is required from 1 January 2016.
SUBORDINATED DEBT AND OTHER HYBRID SECURITIES
Subordinated debt and other hybrid capital issued by Nykredit are all notched down from its VR and have been affirmed accordingly. The ratings reflect each instrument's respective non-performance and relative loss severity risk profiles, which vary considerably.
Nykredit's Tier 2 contingent capital instruments are rated three notches below the VR. The notes are notched twice for loss severity to reflect the principal write-down feature and once for non-performance risk. The latter reflects moderate incremental risk due to a 7% common equity Tier 1 ratio trigger, which is partly offset by the large capital buffer above this trigger point, compared with the risk reflected in Nykredit's VR.
Nykredit's additional Tier 1 instruments are rated five notches below the VR. The notching reflects the notes' higher expected loss severity relative to senior unsecured creditors (two notches) and higher non-performance risk (three notches) given the fully discretionary coupon payments. Nykredit Realkredit's large capital buffer above the 7.125% CET1 trigger and regulatory minimum capital ratios is sufficient to limit the notching for non-performance risk to three (which could otherwise result in wider notching).
SUBSIDIARY AND AFFILIATED COMPANY
Nykredit Bank's IDRs and debt ratings are aligned with Nykredit's due to the subsidiary's core position within the Nykredit group, including full ownership, strong support track record, and likely high reputational risk from allowing the subsidiary to default. Nykredit Bank also allows Nykredit to provide a full range of services to its customers which the mortgage institution is unable to provide. Given the close integration of Nykredit Bank with the larger group, including various shared services, we have not assigned a VR to the subsidiary.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
VR, IDRS AND SENIOR DEBT
The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's view that Nykredit will continue to maintain strong asset quality while improving its earnings to internally generate capital.
A downgrade would most likely be a result of Nykredit being unable to competitively access wholesale funding markets or if the group reduces its focus on liquidity. An increased reliance on international debt investors who may prove less stable during financial stress, or increasing risk appetite - particularly at Nykredit Bank - would also be rating-negative.
An upgrade is currently unlikely given the group's already high ratings and limited product portfolio. In the longer term, an upgrade would be contingent on Nykredit broadening its product offering, providing it with more diversified revenue streams.
SUPPORT RATING AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR
An upgrade to the Support Rating or upward revision to the Support Rating Floor would be contingent on a positive change in Denmark's propensity to support its banks. While not impossible, this is highly unlikely in Fitch's view.
SUBORDINATED DEBT AND OTHER HYBRID SECURITIES
Nykredit's subordinated debt ratings are broadly sensitive to the same considerations that might affect its VR and Fitch's view of non-performance risk relative to that captured in the VR.
SUBSIDIARY AND AFFILIATED COMPANIES
Nykredit Bank's ratings are sensitive to the same factors that may drive changes to Nykredit's IDRs.
The rating actions are as follows:
Nykredit Realkredit
Long-term IDR: affirmed at 'A', Stable Outlook
Short-term IDR: affirmed at 'F1'
Viability Rating: affirmed at 'a'
Support Rating: affirmed at '5'
Support Rating Floor: affirmed at 'No Floor'
Senior unsecured debt: affirmed at 'A'
Tier 2 contingent capital notes: affirmed at 'BBB'
Additional Tier 1 notes: affirmed at 'BB+'
Nykredit Bank
Long-term IDR: affirmed at 'A', Stable Outlook
Short-term IDR: affirmed at 'F1'
Support Rating: affirmed at '1'
Senior unsecured debt: affirmed at 'A'/'F1'
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