Fitch to Rate Citigroup Commercial Mortgage Trust 2015-GC33 Comm Mortgage P-T Certs; Presale Issued
Fitch expects to rate the transaction and assign Rating Outlooks as follows:
--\\$31,785,000 class A-1 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$15,217,000 class A-2 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$220,000,000 class A-3 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$331,456,000 class A-4 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$72,484,000 class A-AB 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$718,866,000b class X-A 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$47,924,000c class A-S 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$62,302,000c class B 'AA-sf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$62,302,000b class X-B 'AA-sf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$152,160,000c class PEZ 'A-sf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$41,934,000c class C 'A-sf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$56,311,000 class D 'BBB-sf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$56,311,000b class X-D 'BBB-sf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$23,963,000a class E 'BB-sf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$9,584,000a class F 'B-sf'; Outlook Stable.
(a) Privately placed and pursuant to Rule 144A.
(b) Notional amount and interest-only.
(c) The class A-S, class B and class C certificates may be exchanged for class PEZ certificates, and class PEZ certificates may be exchanged for the class A-S, class B and class C certificates.
The expected ratings are based on information provided by the issuer as of Sept. 4, 2015. Fitch does not expect to rate the \\$11,129,000 class G or the \\$34,400,233 class H.
The certificates represent the beneficial ownership interest in the trust, primary assets of which are 64 loans secured by 92 commercial properties having an aggregate principal balance of approximately \\$958.5 million as of the cut-off date. The loans were contributed to the trust by Citigroup Global Markets Realty Corp., Goldman Sachs Mortgage Company, Rialto Mortgage Finance, LLC, KGS-Alpha Real Estate Capital Markets, LLC, and RAIT Funding, LLC.
Fitch reviewed a comprehensive sample of the transaction's collateral, including site inspections on 66.8% of the properties by balance, cash flow analysis of 76.8%, and asset summary reviews on 76.8% of the pool.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
High Fitch Leverage: The transaction has higher leverage than other recent Fitch-rated transactions. The pool's Fitch DSCR of 1.15x is below both the year to date 2015 average of 1.20x and the 2014 average of 1.19x. The pool's Fitch LTV of 111.5% is above both the year to date 2015 average of 109.2% and the 2014 average of 106.2%.
Above-Average Pool Concentration: The largest 10 loans account for 54.6% of the pool by balance. This is greater than the year to date 2015 average of 47.0% and the 2014 average of 50.5%. The pool's above-average concentration resulted in a loan concentration index (LCI) of 424, which is greater than the year to date 2015 and 2014 averages of 335 and 387, respectively.
Diverse Property Types: The pool has a diverse mix of property types, with office as the largest at 26.5%, followed by hotel at 22.8%, retail at 22.5%, and multifamily at 13.1%. Three of the top 10 loans (23.5%) are office properties. Overall, the office properties have a diverse mix of geographic locations, including both CBD and suburban markets.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
For this transaction, Fitch's NCF was 14.1% below the most recent year's NOI (for properties for which a full year NOI was provided, excluding properties that were stabilizing during this period). The following rating sensitivities describe how the ratings would react to further NCF declines below Fitch's NCF. The implied rating sensitivities are only indicative of some of the potential outcomes and do not consider other risk factors to which the transaction is exposed. Stressing additional risk factors may result in different outcomes. Furthermore, the implied ratings, after the further NCF stresses are applied, are more akin to what the ratings would be at deal issuance had those further stressed NCFs been in place at that time.
Fitch evaluated the sensitivity of the ratings assigned to CGCMT 2015-GC33 certificates and found that the transaction displays average sensitivity to further declines in NCF. In a scenario in which NCF declined a further 20% from Fitch's NCF, a downgrade of the senior 'AAAsf' certificates to 'A-sf' could result. In a more severe scenario, in which NCF declined a further 30% from Fitch's NCF, a downgrade of the senior 'AAAsf' certificates to 'BBB-sf' could result. The presale report includes a detailed explanation of additional stresses and sensitivities on pages 11 - 12.
DUE DILIGENCE USAGE
Fitch was provided with third-party due diligence information from Ernst & Young LLP. The third-party due diligence information was provided on Form ABS Due Diligence-15E and focused on a comparison and re-computation of certain characteristics with respect to each of the 64 mortgage loans. Fitch considered this information in its analysis and the findings did not have an impact on our analysis. A copy of the ABS Due Diligence Form-15E received by Fitch in connection with this transaction may be obtained through the link contained on the bottom of the related rating action commentary.
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