US Congress will not kill Iran nuclear deal

OREANDA-NEWS. The US Congress will not scuttle the global powers' nuclear deal with Iran now that at least 34 senators have committed to backing it.

Senator Barbara Mikulski (D-Maryland) today became the 34th senator to announce opposition to a Republican-led effort to kill the 14 July deal that the US and its P5+1 partners reached with Iran to swap nuclear concessions for oil and petrochemical sanctions relief. President Barack Obama needed at least 34 votes in the Senate to ensure Congress does not force the US to withdraw from the agreement.

Opponents of the nuclear deal plan to vote by 17 September on a resolution of disapproval in hopes of derailing the accord. If that measure passes, Obama almost certainly will veto it and will need at least 34 votes in the Senate to sustain his veto. Lawmakers need a two-thirds vote in both houses of Congress to override a presidential veto.

Mikulski said the agreement "is the best option available to block Iran from having a nuclear bomb."

The alternatives to the nuclear deal "are more sanctions or military action," Mikulski said. But it is unclear whether the EU, Russia, China and India would continue to impose sanctions if Congress rejected the deal. "At best, sanctions would be porous or limited to unilateral sanctions by the US."

No Republicans have announced support for the deal. But proponents of the accord now are hoping they might be able to muster the 41 votes needed to filibuster the resolution of disapproval, saving Obama from the embarrassment of having a majority of Congress express its disapproval of the agreement.

The agreement the US and its P5+1 negotiating partners, the UK, France, Germany, Russia and China, reached with Iran on 14 July would swap nuclear concessions for oil and petrochemical sanctions relief.

During the long negotiations to reach an accord, Iran's oil exports have been limited to 1mn-1.1mn b/d, down from 2.5mn b/d before the sanctions were imposed in 2012. Six countries — China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey — have continued to buy oil from Iran.

Iran produced 2.88mn b/d in July, up from 2.85mn b/d in June, making it Opec's third largest oil producer. Iranian officials have said repeatedly their oil sector needs \\$150bn-\\$200bn in new investment. US officials estimate that sanctions have cost Iran more than \\$160bn in oil revenue since 2012.