Russia Piles Pressure on Exporters to Sell Foreign Currency
OREANDA-NEWS. The Russian government has resumed pressure on exporters to sell foreign currency in an effort to prevent global market turbulence from triggering another rouble sell-off.
In meetings and calls from August 19, Central Bank and cabinet officials instructed executives at state-owned and private companies on when and how much of their dollar revenues to convert to roubles, company officials said.
"There is monitoring on a daily basis now," said an executive at diamond miner Alrosa, while a person close to Rosneft, the state oil company, said: "Forex sales are being conducted on direct orders from the government."
Dmitry Medvedev, the prime minister, confirmed that the government was again leaning on exporters. This weekend, he pledged that in the medium term the rouble would be "brought back" to the levels at which it had been trading before the latest rout.
"Of course we, I mean the government, will also help the Central Bank in the sense of getting additional foreign currency inflows," Russian news agencies quoted Mr Medvedev as saying. "I believe that there will also soon be additional foreign currency sales by our exporters, which will also be felt in the rouble's exchange rates."
The move mirrors measures Russia employed amid the dramatic fall of the rouble at the end of 2014.
In mid-December, when the currency briefly depreciated to 80 to the dollar, a group of Central Bank and senior cabinet officials monitored foreign exchange operations by large exporters on a daily basis, and the government ordered companies to ensure a "rhythmic and stable conversion" of their dollars into roubles to avoid causing additional volatility. This supervision, part of a package of measures that allowed Moscow to tackle the crisis without hard capital controls, was relaxed early this year after the rouble started stabilising.
However, analysts say the tool might have only a limited impact now as the Russian currency is caught in a much broader emerging markets sell-off.
As corporate tax payments are due by the end of September, stronger demand for local currency is expected over the coming week. But then the trend is likely to reverse as Russian corporate borrowers face the largest redemption in foreign currency debt in several months.
"We expect more FX sales on the back of Rbs717 billion in tax payments due next week. However, this will be unable to change the downward rouble trend," Tom Levinson, chief foreign-exchange and rates strategist at Sberbank CIB, said in a note.
According to Central Bank statistics, Russian companies excluding banks are due to repay more than \\$12 billion including interest.
The latest slide in the rouble, from 49 to the dollar in mid-May to just shy of 70 on Friday, helps the Russian government limit the blow drastically lower oil prices deal to its budget - while the oil and gas revenues that account for half of the budget are dwindling, the cost of budget spending also shrinks in dollar terms.
But the renewed currency drop is set to force the Central Bank to step up financial support for banks and other companies which need to redeem foreign debt and can't refinance it because of western sanctions.
That could fuel further concerns about financial stability. In mid-May, the bank started buying foreign exchange to refill its international reserves. But amid the currency's renewed depreciation this month, it said it had suspended this move.
Financial Times - by Kathrin Hille
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