OREANDA-NEWS. The Chilean banking sector's results through July 2015 continue to show a mix of sound credit quality, reasonable asset growth, and stable profitability, in spite of sluggish macroeconomic growth (GDP 1.8%) during the first half of 2015, says Fitch Ratings. The July data release from Chile's banking regulator (SBIF) also showed operating income increasing, recovering net interest margins (NIM) and costs contained - each helping to counterbalance the economic slowdown.

Although loan loss provisions increased, asset quality across the sector continues to surprise with nonperforming loans (NPLs) improving to 2.01% of total gross loans at July 2015 (versus 2.15% one year prior). NPLs declined in all portfolios, including consumer loans, which improved to 2.04% from 2.09% one year before. The trend reflects the conservative credit risk appetite from banks after important changes in regulatory and operating environment since 2011. It also highlights a more cautious approach toward short- and medium-term lending. Early signs of a future uptick in NPLs may be seen in loan chargeoffs, which modestly increased in the July data. Total loan loss reserves remain ample, with coverage of 1.4x the total past-due loans over 90 days.

Through July 2015, the banking system's gross loans, excluding cross-border lending, increased 11.1% year over year (up from 10.4% at the end of 2014), reflecting strong commercial and corporate loan expansion (15.5% year over year), stable mortgage loans, and consumer loan portfolio growth of 10.2% year over year. Despite the current trends, Fitch expects that loan growth and asset quality will show less strong performance in the second half of 2015 and likely well into 2016 due to the economic slowdown, higher expected unemployment and exchange rate volatility. In 2016, Chile's GDP will likely reach the three-year point with an average real growth in GDP of under 2%.

Consolidated system results, excluding cross-border lending, reached CLP1.247 billion, an 8.7% decline from one year ago, due to lower inflation and its impact on NIM. Fitch expects that this trend could reverse in the second half of 2015 and hence see a strengthening of net interest income, since annual inflation is now projected to rise to 4%, according to market consensus.

Significant M&A activity has occurred in 2015, including among smaller banks. Fitch expects the M&A trend may continue in the short and medium term. The landscape for Chile's banks includes 24 institutions, with the largest five managing 72% of the system's consolidated assets. Foreign banks hold 35% of the system's total assets. The forthcoming Itau-Corpbanca merger will concentrate the system even more next year, reaching more than 75% of total assets in five banks.