Fitch: Australian Housing Boom Hides Mortgage Delinquencies
As of March 2015, Fairfield-Liverpool recorded a 90+days delinquency rate of 0.37%, well below the average of 1.08% during the past decade, thanks to house price growth of 19.04% yoy. Hume, north-west of Melbourne, where house price growth was only 0.8% yoy, recorded 90+days arrears at 0.64%, in line with the 0.77% average during the past decade. Hume and Fairfield-Liverpool are regions characterised by low socio-economic variables and have historically shown similar trends in mortgage performance.
During a housing boom, repossessed properties are sold quickly, delinquent loans are cleared more rapidly and borrowers have the option to dispose of the property before financial difficulties become unsustainable.
As there is no improvement in the borrowers' ability to service their mortgage, only the ability to cure arrears by selling the property, 90+ days arrears are expected to return to long-term average levels.
Fitch believes that the ratings of Australian RMBS and covered bonds benefit from strong house price growth. However, in its analysis the agency gives credit to mortgages for only 50% of the house price growth since settlement.
This is one part in a series of Fitch's "APAC SF Chart of the Month", which highlights topical issues in the region and can be found at www.fitchratings.com or by clicking the link above.
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