OREANDA-NEWS. Ninety-two of China's top 100 listed non-financial corporates by revenue (Fitch China100) are projected by Bloomberg consensus estimates (BEst) to be in the positive credit change zones of cash flow growth exceeding net debt growth over 2014 to 2016. This is a dramatic shift from 2012-2014, where there was an even balance of 48 companies in the negative credit change zones and 52 in the positive credit change zones.

The bias towards positive credit change zones is less marked for the 40 companies that are rated by at least one of Fitch Ratings, Moody's or S&P, Fitch shows in a new report titled "100 Chinese Listed Corporates: Credit Change Zones".

When focusing on the 30 listed companies publically rated by Fitch, the agency's estimates for the projected 2016 versus 2014 case show a higher 27% of the companies in the negative credit change zones compared with BEst's 17%.

Fitch illustrates in the report the clear bias in consensus estimates for the financial profiles of the listed Chinese corporates towards improvement over the projected 2014-2016 period compared with the historic 2012-2014 period. A majority of companies - 71 - are forecast by BEst to be projected Net Debt Shedders, compared with a minority of 29 historically. On the cash flow front, 95 companies out of the total 100 are forecast by BEst to be projected Cash Flow Boosters, meaning that only five are projected to be Cash Flow Dippers.

Consequently median net leverage for the Fitch China100 portfolio is projected by BEst to drop dramatically by 1.2 turns to 1.0x in 2016F from 2.2x in 2014, with each major corporate sector forecast to experience a decline in net leverage.

The report contains a number of historical and projected top 10 net debt and EBITDA lists, which highlight those corporates undergoing the most significant changes on an absolute basis.

The report also includes a number of Venn diagrams illustrating the overlapping areas of our Top 10 lists, particularly the "Blue Joy Zone" of strong cash-flow increases and debt paydown, and the "Red Pain Zone" of cash flow decline and rising net debt. Alibaba, Tencent, SAIC Motor, Sinopec and CSCEC are in the "Blue Joy Zone" of projected higher cash flow and debt paydown over 2015 and 2016. Conversely, CNOOC and PetroChina are in the "Red Pain Zone" of projected cash-flow decline and rising net debt, as low oil prices and likely outlays on reserve replacement will have a negative impact.

Fitch's analysis is based on a portfolio of 100 listed Chinese non-financial corporates in order of revenue size, and with a consistent sample of both historical and forecast EBITDA, and net-debt data for 2012-2016F.

The report contains explanatory notes and rating sensitivities for the 30 listed corporates rated by Fitch.

The report is available at www.fitchratings.com.