OREANDA-NEWS. August 19, 2015. India’s GDP growth for Q1 2015 at 7.5% outstripped China’s 7.0%, placing India as the world’s fastest growing major economy. India’s GDP growth rate for Q2 2015 will be released on 31 August at 8pm Singapore time while China’s Q2 GDP has already been reported at 7.0%. Investors can subscribe here to the SGX My Gateway Economic Calendar to receive an update closer to the event.

Earlier in the month the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained India’s Cash Reserve Ratio at 4.00%, Repurchase Rate at 7.25% and Reverse Repo Rate at 6.25%.  The last change made to the Cash Reserve Ratio was in early 2013, while the Repurchase Rates and Reverse Repo Rates have been reduced multiple times this year. The Repurchase Rate is the rate that RBI lends money to commercial banks and the Reverse Repo Rates is the rate at which the RBI borrows money from commercial banks.

One US Dollar (USD) currently purchases 65.310 Indian Rupees (INR) which is up from 60.684 level a year ago. Annualised volatility of the INR on a rolling 120 day basis is currently 5.2%. In 2009 the value of India’s trade with the globe totaled US\\$431.2 billion which was 40% was composed of exports and 60% imports, hence India was a net importer to the value of approximately US\\$84 billion. In 2014, the value of India’s trade had gained 80% from the 2009 levels to US\\$776.3 billion. Despite the rise of the USD/INR, India’s global trade composition in 2014 was similar to the 2009 composition, with 41% in exports and 59% in imports.

India Global World Trade US\\$ bn

Source: Bloomberg

As India’s trade flows with the world have increased, moves in the MSCI India Index have also been observed to be less independent to that of the MSCI World Index. Average correlations of the MSCI India Index and MSCI World Index over the five years from the end of 2009 through to the end of 2014 were up 12 percentage points from the preceding 10 years. The long term correlation of the two indices is tabled below.

MSCI India versus MSCI World 120 Day Correlation

Source: Bloomberg


Expanding Impact of India’s Exchange Rate

With India’s trade and investment flows with the world on the rise since 2009, statistical evidence shows that the INR exchange rate has had an increased influence on corporate India.

A working paper was released Monday examining whether India’s exchange rate is now the dominant factor influencing corporate profitability in India. The paper conducted a statistical analysis of the importance of the exchange rate in determining corporate profitability since 2009. The key observation was in recent times when the foreign exchange market has been under stress, the exchange rate has become the only critical factor to determine corporate profitability, dominating all other factors.

As summarised by the paper, when the INR had appreciated, corporate profitability had been observed to get a short-term boost with the long-term impact depending on import and export elasticity. Furthermore, the paper cited that since 2009 many of India’s large private non-financial corporates took advantage of the easy liquidity abroad which has amplified the impact of exchange rate volatility on their profitability. The jointly written paper which, like this Market Update, is designed to be educative, was designed to elicit comments and further debate and can be found on the RBI website here. This was based on a cross-sectional analysis where profitability of multiple firms was compared over three timeframes on micro and macro-economic indicators which examined the nature of impact of the various factors on corporate profitability. For 2015, 47 Indian companies were listed in the Forbes Global 2000 ranking for 2015.

MSCI India Index

The performance of the MSCI India Index since the end of 2009 is illustrated in the chart below. The Index has moved approximately 50% higher over the period from 700 to the 1050 level. At the same time, the USD/INR rose approximately 40% from 46.650 levels to 65.310 levels.  The MSCI India Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of India’s stock market. The index currently has 70 constituents and covers approximately 85% of the Indian equity universe. Its largest sectors are information technology, financials, consumer staples, health care and energy. Current sectors, weights and stocks can be found here.

Source: Bloomberg

Singapore Exchange (SGX) lists stocks, security and derivative products that provide investors with India exposure.

Derivate Highlights & Application

The SGX CNX Nifty Index futures contract and SGX MSCI India Index futures contract represent cost effective methods to hedge international exposures to India. The CNX Nifty Index is a well-diversified market capitalisation weighted index comprising 50 large and highly liquid securities traded on the NSE.  The MSCI India Index is highly correlated to the CNX Nifty Index with the 120 rolling day correlation standing at 97%. SGX CNX Nifty Index futures month end open interest stood at US\\$5.7 billion in July with total notional value for SGX CNX Nifty Index futures in July reaching US\\$28.5 billion.

Monthly volume of the SGX INR/USD futures reached a record US\\$10.2 billion during July. The bid/offer spread for SGX INR/USD futures currently average 1.1 basis point during onshore opening hours, which is tighter than other liquidity venues such as the over-the-counter (OTC) market for non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).

The SGX INR/USD futures can facilitate offshore investors' needs to separately manage the currency risk premium associated with their exposure to the India market. At a trading price of 153.00 US cents to 100 India Rupees, the minimum value of a long or short position in the SGX INR/USD futures is US\\$30,600. Please note the futures contract is quoted in an inverse price format in order to facilitate settlement in the US dollars. Thus if the futures contract which is quoted as INR/USD is priced at 153.12, the approximate equivalent USD/INR rate will be 65.310.

Please note that Futures contracts have been categorised as Specified Investment Products (SIPs) as part of an MAS initiative to introduce stronger measures and enhance requirements to further safeguard the interests of individual investors. SGX has introduced two online initiatives, a Customer Account Review Module and an Online Education program, to improve the understanding and trading of SIPs listed on SGX. Please click here to access these initiatives.

Stocks & Security Products

The most active Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) by turnover value listed on SGX is the iShares MSCI India Index ETF which accounted for 19% of Singapore’s ETF turnover in the first seven months of 2015. The ETF has maintained a 1.4% price gain in the year thus far. This brought the three year performance of the ETF to 31.1% in US Dollar terms. As illustrated in the chart below much of the gains since the end of 2009 have occurred in the last three years.

The three stocks trusts with India assets – Ascendas India Trust, Religare Health Trust and Indiabulls Property Investment Trust, in addition to the one stock that reports more than half its revenue to India, Sarine Technologies,  have together averaged a 12.7% decline in the year to date. This takes their average three year total return to 25.8%.

Details of these three stocks are tabled below. 

Source: SGX StockFacts (data as of 17 August 2015)

Source: SGX StockFacts (data as of 17 August 2015)

Ascendas India Trust

Ascendas India Trust owns real estate properties primarily used as business space and real estate-related assets in India. It develops, owns, and manages information technology parks and focuses on acquiring, holding, and developing land or uncompleted developments to be used primarily for business purposes. Ascendas India Trust was formed in August 2007 and is based in Singapore.

On 23 July, Ascendas India Trust reported audited consolidated earnings results for the first quarter ended June 30, 2015. As noted in SGX StockFacts, for the quarter, the trust reported total property income of S\\$34,160,000 against S\\$31,865,000 a year ago. Income to be distributed was S\\$12,654,000 or 1.37 cents per share against S\\$10,575,000 or 1.15 cents per share a year ago. Net Asset Value per unit as at 30 June 2015 was S\\$0.64, 6% lower compared to 31 March 2015 partly due to distributions paid. Total property income for the quarter increased by 6% due to additional income from CyberVale, which was acquired in March 2015. Ordinary profit before tax decreased by 19% mainly due to a higher realised exchange loss, partially offset by higher realised gain on derivative financial instruments and higher net property income. More of news pertaining to Ascendas India Trust can be found here.

The trust has generated a dividend-inclusive year to date gain of 14.6% taking its three year total return to 40.1%.

Religare Health Trust

Religare Health Trust provides medical and clinical establishment services in India. It was the first business trust with a portfolio of healthcare assets in India to be listed on SGX. It has a portfolio of 11 clinical establishments, four greenfield clinical establishments, and two operating hospitals. The trust was founded in 2011, is based in Singapore and listed in the third week of October 2012.

Last week, Religare Health Trust reported earnings results for the first quarter ended June 30, 2015. As noted in SGX Stockfacts, for the quarter, the trust reported total revenue of S\\$34.3 million compared to S\\$ 30.1 million, net service fee and hospital income of S\\$22.9 million compared to S\\$22.6 million, income available for distribution of S\\$15.4 million compared to S\\$14.3 million and Distribution Per Unit of 1.940 cents compared to 1.806 cents for the last year. The growth in revenue was driven by the annual 3% increase in base fee as well as the overall higher operating revenue recorded by operator, Fortis Healthcare, of which RHT has a share of 7.5%. More of news pertaining to Religare Health Trust can be found here.

The trust has generated a dividend-inclusive year to date gain of 5.2% and taking its total return to 38.8% since the third week of October 2012.

Indiabulls Properties Investment 

Indiabulls Properties Investment Trust primarily engages in the development, management, and lease of commercial spaces in India. The company is also involved in the development and sale of residential property. Its portfolio comprises two commercial developments, and three residential developments. Indiabulls Properties Investment Trust was formed in May 2008 and is based in Singapore.

On 3 August Indiabulls Properties Investment Trust reported unaudited consolidated earnings results for the first quarter ended June 30, 2015. As noted in SGX StockFacts for the quarter, the trust reported total income of S\\$26,364,000 against S\\$26,950,000 a year ago. Loss before tax was S\\$476,000 against profit before tax of S\\$195,000 a year ago. Loss for the period was S\\$476,000 or 0.013 cents per basic and diluted share against profit for the period of S\\$195,000 or 0.005 cents per basic and diluted share a year ago. Net cash flow generated from operating activities was S\\$38,249,000 against S\\$20,160,000 a year ago. NAV per unit as at June 30, 2015 was 33.83 cents against 35.24 cents as at March 31, 2015. More of news pertaining to Indiabulls Properties Investment Trust can be found here.

The trust has generated a dividend-inclusive year to date decline of 32.0%, accounting for much of its 33.4% decline over the past three years

Sarine Technologies

Sarine Technologies develops and manufactures planning, evaluation, and measurement systems for diamond and gemstone production in India, Africa, Europe, North America, Israel, and internationally. The company also aids in key aspects of the polished diamond trade, such as the grading of a polished diamond's cut and light performance. Sarine Technologies was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Kfar Saba, Israel.

On 9 August Sarine Technologies reported group earnings results for the second quarter and six months ended June 30, 2015. As noted in SGX StockFacts, for the quarter, the company’s revenue was USD 14,421,000 against USD 24,716,000 a year ago. Profit for the period was USD 2,679,000 or 0.76 cents per diluted share against USD 8,568,000 or 2.43 cents per diluted share a year ago. The revenue and net profit fell 42% and 69%, respectively, compared to second quarter of 2014 as capital equipment sales and recurring revenue declined due to significantly lower diamond manufacturing activities. More of news pertaining to Sarine Technologies can be found here.

The company has generated a dividend-inclusive year to date decline of 38.5%, reducing its three year total return to 57.5%.

More India-related Stocks

SGX lists another four stocks that reported between one-fifth to one quarter of their revenue from India in their last financial year. These include Longcheer Holdings, International Press Softcom, Excelpoint Technology and WE Holdings.

In addition Cordlife Group and Golden-Agri Resources reported 13% and 10% of their revenue to India respectively in their last financial year. Another 15 or so stocks report between 1% and 10% of their revenues to India. With at least another five stocks that geographically segment less than 1% of revenues to India, it means that all in all approximately 30 stocks listed on SGX report revenue to India.

Among these 30 stocks, are four Straits Times Index (STI) constituents – Wilmar International, Sembcorp Industries, Golden-Agri Resources and Noble Group which provide yet another example of the international diversity of the STI.