Fitch Rates AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2015-3
--\\$230,000,000 Class A-1 notes 'F1+sf';
--\\$199,740,000 Class A-2-A notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$199,730,000 Class A-2-B notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$225,130,000 Class A-3 notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$92,070,000 Class B notes 'AAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$114,280,000 Class C notes 'Asf'; Outlook Stable;
--\\$112,390,000 Class D notes 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Consistent Credit Quality: The 2015-3 pool displays consistent credit quality relative to recent pools based on the weighted average (WA) Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO) score and internal credit tiers. Extended term contracts (over 60-month loan terms) continue to account for the majority of the pool at 92%. New vehicles total 48% of the pool, consistent with prior AMCAR transactions.
Consistent Credit Enhancement (CE): The cash flow distribution is a sequential-pay structure. Initial hard CE is consistent with recent transactions. The reserve is 2.00% (nondeclining), and initial overcollateralization (OC) is 5.50% growing to 14.50% target of the outstanding pool balance (less the required reserve amount for the distributing period). Excess spread has decreased to approximately 8% per annum.
Stable Portfolio/Securitization Performance: Losses on GM Financial's managed portfolio and securitizations are stable and relatively low, supported by the gradual economic recovery and stable used vehicle values. The cumulative base case loss proxy for this pool is 11.10%.
Solid Corporate Health: Fitch rates GM and GM Financial Company Inc., 'BBB-'/Outlook Stable. The recent corporate upgrade reflects the ongoing fundamental improvement in the company's core business over the past several years.
Consistent Origination/Underwriting/Servicing: AFSI demonstrates adequate abilities as originator, underwriter, and servicer, as evidenced by historical portfolio and securitization performance. Fitch deems AFSI capable of adequately servicing 2015-3.
Legal Structure Integrity: The legal structure of the transaction should provide that a bankruptcy of GM Financial would not impair the timeliness of payments on the securities.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Unanticipated increases in the frequency of defaults and loss severity on defaulted receivables could produce loss levels higher than the base case and could result in potential rating actions on the notes. Fitch evaluated the sensitivity of the ratings assigned to each class of AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2015-3 to increased losses over the life of the transaction. Fitch's analysis found that each class of notes displays some sensitivity to increased defaults and losses, with some classes showing potential downgrades of up to one rating categories under Fitch's moderate (1.5x base case loss) scenario. Some classes of notes could experience downgrades of more than two rating categories under Fitch's severe (2.5x base case loss) scenario.
DUE DILIGENCE USAGE
Fitch was provided with third-party due diligence information from Deliotte & Touche LLP. The third-party due diligence provided was on Form ABS Due Diligence-15E and focused on a comparison and re-computation with respect to 200 sample loan contracts all selected randomly and 20 automobile loan characteristics. Fitch considered this information in its analysis and the findings did not have any impact on our analysis. A copy of the ASB Due Diligence Form-15E received by Fitch in connection with this transaction may be obtained through the link contained on the bottom of the related rating action commentary.
Fitch's analysis of the Representation and Warranties (R&W) of this transaction can be found in 'AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2015-3 -- Appendix'. These R&W are compared to those of typical R&W for the asset class as detailed in Fitch's June 12, 2015 special report, 'Representations, Warranties, and Enforcement Mechanisms in the Global Structured Finance Transactions'.
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