OREANDA-NEWS. August 10, 2015. Fitch Ratings has affirmed international hotel group Accor SA's (Accor) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating at 'BBB-'. Accor's Short-term IDR and commercial paper (CP) facility is affirmed at 'F3' and its EUR900m subordinated hybrid perpetual bond at 'BB'. The Outlook on the Long-term IDR is Stable

The ratings are supported by Accor's position as the leading European hotel group with over 480,000 rooms, its strong geographical and sector positioning as well as well-known brands. We expect Accor's performance and credit metrics to remain stable in 2015. The group's leverage was stretched by over EUR1bn of hotel acquisitions in 2014; however lease restructurings, restrained capex, asset disposals further to the restructuring of the acquired Moor Park, Axa and Tritax (TT) portfolios and improved overall performance in 1H15 should allow the group to operate within its 'BBB-' leverage guidelines, albeit with limited headroom. Any rating upside remains, however, constrained by Accor's limited free cash flow (FCF) generation prospects.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Size and Diversification
The ratings reflect Accor's position as a leading global hotel group, including being the number one in Europe, Latin America (Latam), Middle East and Africa (MEA) and Asia Pacific (APAC) in terms of rooms. They also factor in Accor's wide positioning across the economy and mid-scale segments, a growing franchise and management (F&M) contracts business which has a higher EBITDA margin, its strong brand, online presence and geographical diversification. In 1H15 the benefits of diversification were evident with firm operational results in APAC, Northern, Central and Eastern Europe (NCEE) and MMEA more than compensating for challenging markets such as Brazil.

New Business Model
Accor's new business model splits the group into two distinct divisions. The HotelInvest division owns and leases 1,340 hotels and is yield-oriented. Accor's HotelServices division is the hotel operator and brand franchisor within the group and is fee-oriented. The new hotel "twin track" strategy should ensure that Accor generates additional FCF in the medium term, as it moves more towards a fee-based structure and reduces expensive lease payments. It is unclear whether Accor will eventually de-merge and split these operations and on what basis; this could have important rating implications although is not factored in today's rating affirmation.

Reducing Rent Liabilities
Under its new strategy Accor targets value-oriented and disciplined hotel ownership, which includes an end to expansion through leases. This is an alteration from the previously announced "asset light" strategy, but takes into consideration the more complex operating and investing environment that the group now works in. The strategy also includes no further disposals of hotels, unless they are structurally underperforming assets, and lease reductions and restructurings.

Due to the lease restructuring programme and hotel buybacks undertaken in 2014 and 1H15, overall lease liabilities have declined significantly, which we estimate will total around EUR800m p.a. at end-2015 (EUR849m at end-2014). Fitch capitalises lease liabilities by applying a multiple of 8x to the most recent annual lease charge; for variable leases (47% of Accor's annual lease payments) we reduce the annual commitments by 25% to reflect the inherent flexibility of such lease arrangements.

Firm 1H15 Results
Overall Accor reported satisfactory results in 1H15, with lfl revenues increasing 4.1% due to both improved occupancy and pricing in Latam and central Europe. The HotelServices division - the group's franchise and management contract asset-light arm - in particular saw rapid lfl revenue growth of 6.4% in 1H15 and a healthy EBIT margin of 26.3% as more third party management contracts were signed. We expect steady results from HotelServices over the next 12-18 months.

Strong Expansion Programme
Around 15,000 new rooms in 99 hotels were delivered in 1H15 (out of 156,000 rooms in the pipeline over the next four to five years), confirming management's proactivenew hotel development programme. The group's global market coverage should improve, particularly in the critical and fast-growing APAC markets. We expect some 37,000 additional rooms in aggregate in 2015.

Stable Leverage
Funds from operations (FFO) lease-adjusted gross leverage rose to 5.2x at end-2014, slightly above Fitch's guideline for a 'BBB-' rating. This was due to over EUR1bn of hotel acquisitions during the year, which were funded mainly by a EUR880m hybrid bond (to which Fitch gives 50% equity credit) and EUR334m of asset disposals. We expect a small reduction in leverage in 2015, due to a combination of slightly improved EBITDA, capex restraint and working capital control. We also expect the disposal programme in 2015 (EUR65m of disposals in 1H15) to provide additional financial flexibility for the group.

Limited but Stable FCF
Accor's FCF is currently volatile, as the group continues to own and maintain a material proportion of its properties. Accor's strategy of both asset-light expansion through management contracts and lease reduction should, however, result in lower maintenance capex in the medium term and this should assist positive FCF generation. Overall, we expect Accor to generate neutral to mildly negative FCF margins over the next three years.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch's expectations are based on the agency's internally produced, conservative rating case forecasts. They do not represent the forecasts of rated issuers individually or in aggregate.
Fitch's key assumptions within our rating case for the issuer include:

-Lower occupancy and stable average room rate (ARRs) in France in 2015 and 2016, with improved revenue growth in remaining geographical sectors;
-Improved profitability given the restructuring and efficiencies measures linked to ongoing reorganisation. Yet margin gains will be offset by weak trading performance in France and Brazil in 2015 in addition to costs linked to the digital plan;
-Room additions to be the main driver of revenue growth over the next two years;
-Capex at between EUR500m and EUR600m in 2015;
-Further reduction in rentals;
-Disposals totalling around EUR250m and EUR270m in 2015 and 2016;
-Dividend policy remains unchanged;
-Equity credit of 50% for the EUR880m hybrid perpetual bond.

RATING SENSITIVITIES
It is unlikely that there will be a positive rating action until the group's strategy becomes clearer regarding a possible de-merger, but future developments that could lead, both individually or collectively, to a positive rating action include:

- Group EBIT margin sustainably above 10% (2014: 11.04%).
- FFO lease-adjusted gross leverage below 4.0x (2014: 4.9x) on a sustained basis.
- FFO fixed charge cover of above 3.0x (2014: 2.0x).
- Steady positive FCF (excluding exceptional costs) driven by improved operational profitability.

Future developments that could lead, both individually or collectively, to a negative rating action include:

- A sustained contraction in profitability due to weaker occupancy and/or reduced ARRs leading to group EBIT margin below 10%.
- FFO lease-adjusted gross leverage above 5.0x on a sustained basis.
- FFO fixed charge cover ratio of below 2.0x.

LIQUIDITY
At end-2014 Accor had EUR1.8bn of undrawn committed facilities expiring in 2019 and total readily available cash of EUR2.4bn. This is comfortable liquidity as Accor only has EUR102m of bond and bank debt maturities until June 2016. In June 2014 Accor issued a EUR900m perpetual bond, which further improved its liquidity and debt maturity profile.