Fitch: 2Q15 U.S. Capital Markets Revenues Decline on Subdued Volatility
In the face of the overall declines, Morgan Stanley made the largest revenue share gain during the quarter due to strong underwriting and equity capital markets performance. However, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Citi retained their lead as first, second and third largest in terms of share of revenue.
"Overall, revenues during the second quarter were bolstered by advisory and equity markets," said Justin Fuller, Senior Director, Financial Institutions. "Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities is still a significant part of the revenue picture, but remains pressured by lower volatilities in foreign exchange and rates."
Fitch expects advisory to remain a bright spot through the end of 2015, although the pace of M&A may slow beyond then. Subdued volatility has the potential to continue to impact banks' capital market activities, with FICC potentially grabbing a smaller-than-usual slice of the pie if it continues.
A rise in short-term interest rates by the Federal Reserve would have a mixed impact, as the rates business is likely to improve, offsetting potential declines in credit and mortgages.
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