Fitch: Subdued Domestic Economy Weighs on Moroccan Banks
Domestic banking is the largest contributor to operating profit for Groupe Banque Centrale Populaire (GBCP), Attijariwafa Bank (AWB; BB+/Stable/bb-) and BMCE Bank (BMCE; BB+/Stable/b+), although contribution from international activities is growing as a share of their operating profit. Societe Generale Marocaine de Banques (SGMB), Banque Marocaine pour le Commerce et l'Industrie (BMCI) and Credit Du Maroc (CDM) operate exclusively in Morocco.
Fitch considers asset quality as moderate compared with international standard and asset quality ratios at the six major Moroccan banks have largely deteriorated since 2012. This is attributable to a fragile SME sector in an economy that is still awaiting a significant rebound in exports to Europe, overall low demand for loans in the absence of strong economic growth and increased exposure to weaker African economies at the three largest banks. Fitch expects this trend to continue for the rest of 2015.
Fitch views capital ratios as modest at most large Moroccan banks given strong concentration in their lending books, only adequate reserve coverage of impaired loans or significant exposure to volatile African regions, which is not covered by additional capital buffers. Nevertheless, Fitch views BMCI's capitalisation as commensurate with its risk profile.
Fitch considers the funding profile of Moroccan banks as solid, with stable and largely unremunerated retail customer deposits forming the bulk of their funding base. Wholesale funding is limited despite easy access to the market and recourse to the Moroccan central bank's repo facilities has decreased significantly since 2013.
Profitability is under pressure from worsening asset quality through hefty loan impairment charges. This was offset in the three largest Moroccan banks' 2014 net profits by significant gains on their substantial government debt portfolios, benefiting from a decrease in interest rates. A rebound in profitability is highly reliant on non-agricultural domestic GDP growth, although no distinct positive trend is yet visible. The three largest banks' performance will remain supported by their lending activity in sub-Saharan African countries, although Fitch expects the contribution to net profits to remain limited. In addition, the 2014 gains on the bonds portfolios are unlikely to be repeated. As such, profitability at the six largest banks is at best expected to stabilise in 2015 while deterioration at some of them cannot be ruled out.
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