Fitch Affirms IDRs of IRCP, IRSA and Cresud
Fitch has affirmed the following ratings of IRSA Propiedades Comerciales S.A. (IRCP):
--Local currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+'; Outlook Negative;
--Foreign currency IDR at 'CCC';
--USD120 million senior unsecured notes due in 2017 at 'B-/RR3'.
IRCP's ratings reflect the company's exposure to Argentina's business climate and economic conditions, its credit profile, and the credit linkage with its parent company, IRSA. The Negative Outlooks on IRCP's LC IDR reflects the high degree of uncertainty about the business climate and economic conditions.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
IRCP's foreign currency (FC) IDR continues to be constrained at 'CCC' by the 'CCC' country ceiling assigned to Argentina by Fitch. The company's local currency (LC) IDR remains at 'B+' due to the high risk of operating in Argentina's real estate industry. The 'RR3' Recovery Rating reflects above average recovery prospects in the event of default. The notching above the soft cap of 'RR4' for bonds issued by Argentine corporates reflects the company's very strong credit profile.
IRCP's leverage is low for a real estate company. During the last twelve months ended March 31, 2015 (LTM March 2015), the company's leverage has increased to 2.7x from 1.1x. The increase in debt is primarily due to a new related-party transaction that the company entered with its parent company, IRSA. The company's ratings continue to be linked with IRSA's, which owns 95.7% of IRCP. As of March 31, 2015, IRSA had USD530 million of total consolidated debt, resulting in a total net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.7x.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
--EBITDA margin for full-year 2015 around 80%
--Total adjusted net leverage for full-year 2015 around 3x
RATING SENSITIVITIES
The ratings are expected to be driven primarily by developments in Argentina's business climate and economic conditions.
LIQUIDITY
IRCP's short-term debt has increased during the LTM period ended March 2015, which adds some pressure to its liquidity' however, this situation is partially counterbalanced by the company's cash flow generation and access to short-term credit with local banks. The company's debt payment schedule includes USD75 million during the next 12 months ended March 2016, while it had USD10 million of cash at the end of March 2015. In addition, IRCP's portfolio of assets is strong, and is primarily unencumbered and provides an additional source of liquidity.
Fitch has also affirmed the following ratings of IRSA:
--Local Currency IDR at 'B+';
--Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'CCC';
--USD150 million Senior Unsecured Notes due in 2017 at 'B-/RR3';
--USD 150 million Senior Unsecured Notes due in 2020 at 'B-/RR3';
--The Rating Outlook for the Local Currency IDR remains Negative.
IRSA's ratings reflect the company's exposure to Argentina's business climate and economic conditions as well as its consolidated credit profile. The Negative Outlooks on IRSA reflects the high degree of uncertainty about the business climate and economic conditions in Argentina.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
IRSA's FC IDR is constrained at 'CCC' by Argentina's 'CCC' country ceiling. The company's LC IDR is 'B+', which reflects a strong position in the local market and an easier access to financing.in Argentine peso.
Both IRSA and its subsidiary, IRCP, own key parcels of land in strategic areas of Buenos Aires, which could be sold to improve the company's liquidity or for new developments. The LC IDRs of IRSA and IRCP have been linked at 'B+'. This linkage reflects factors that align the credit quality of these companies, as well as the fact IRCP's upstream dividends represent a relevant part of IRSA's cash flow generation.
IRSA has a leading position in the Buenos Aires shopping center segment through PCSA. The shopping center segment accounts for about 75% of IRSA's consolidated operating EBITDA. The company is also the leader in the development and management of office buildings in Buenos Aires.
IRSA maintains moderate levels of debt, as well as a manageable liquidity position. Its main source of financing is with local banks, which is done primarily on a short-term basis. The company has a high level of unencumbered assets and land that could be sold to enhance liquidity and to service debt.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
--EBITDA margin for full-year 2015 around 75%
--Total adjusted net leverage for full-year 2015 around 2x
LIQUIDITY
As of March 31, 2015, IRSA had USD530 million of total consolidated debt, resulting in a total net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.7x. IRSA is expected to meet its upcoming debt obligations during the next 12-month period ended in March 2016 with a mix of cash from operations and the rollover of existing debt. The company main challenge remains the refinancing of its unsecured notes of USD150 million due in 2017.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
The ratings are expected to be driven primarily by the development of the Argentina's business climate and economic conditions.
Fitch has also affirmed the ratings of Cresud S.A.C.I.F. y A. (Cresud) as follows:
--Local Currency IDR at 'B-';
--Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'CCC';
--The Rating Outlook for the Local Currency IDR remains Negative.
Cresud's ratings reflect the company's exposure to Argentina's business climate and economic conditions and its leading business position in the real estate and agribusiness sectors. The Negative Outlook reflects the high degree of uncertainty about the business climate and economic conditions in Argentina.
RATING DRIVERS
Cresud's FC IDR is constrained at 'CCC' by the 'CCC' country ceiling assigned to Argentina by Fitch. Cresud's 'B-' LC IDR is held back by above-average risks associated with operating in the Argentinian real estate segment and the volatile cash flow of its agribusiness division, which is subject to weather conditions and commodity prices.
Fitch links the ratings of Cresud and IRSA. Cresud's 'B-' LC IDR is notched down from IRSA's 'B+' LC IDR because of the structural subordination of its debt and weaker stand-alone financial profile. This also incorporates factors such as strong strategic and operational ties with IRSA, which represents a significant part of Cresud's cash flow from operations.
Cresud's ratings consider its position as a leading company in the real estate and agribusiness sectors in Argentina. Cresud owns 64.5% of IRSA, a leading real estate company in Argentina dedicated to real estate development, office rentals, and shopping mall operations through IRCP. Cresud has farms in Argentina and a presence in Bolivia, Paraguay, and Brazil.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
--EBITDA margin for full-year 2015 around 30%
--Total adjusted net leverage for full-year 2015 around 5.5x
LIQUIDITY
The ratings also reflect moderate consolidated leverage, as well as manageable liquidity from unencumbered assets and sellable land. These assets provide Cresud, and its direct and indirect subsidiaries, with financial flexibility.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
The ratings are expected to be driven primarily by positive developments in Argentina's business climate and economic conditions.
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