OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has affirmed Morocco-based Banque Marocaine pour le Commerce et l'Industrie's (BMCI) National Long-term Rating at 'AAA(mar)' with a Stable Outlook and its Support Rating at '2'. A full list of rating actions is available at the end of this rating action commentary.

KEY RATING DRIVERS: BMCI's NATIONAL AND SUPPORT RATINGS
BMCI's ratings are based on Fitch's belief that there would be a high probability of support from its majority shareholder, BNP Paribas (BNPP, A+/Stable), if required. This reflects BNPP's strong ability (as indicated by its rating) and willingness to provide support to BMCI. BMCI's Support Rating is constrained by Morocco's Country Ceiling of 'BBB'.

Fitch considers BNPP has ample resources to support BMCI, whose assets and equity account for only 0.3% and 0.8% of BNPP's, respectively.

Morocco accounts for around half of BNPP's activities in Africa in terms of operating income, net income or number of branches, and BMCI is BNPP's only African subsidiary that has reached a 5% domestic market share. As such, Fitch considers Morocco (through BMCI) to be strategically important to BNPP's retail banking franchise in the Mediterranean basin.

BMCI has a reasonable franchise in Morocco (fifth-largest bank with a 6% market share). BMCI's lower performance in the past few years has not led BNPP to rethink its presence in Morocco. The ownership has remained unchanged, with BNPP holding 66.7% of the capital, 16.3% floating, and the rest split among institutional investors. Fitch does not foresee a reduction in BNPP's presence in Morocco and stake in BMCI.

BMCI is strongly integrated into BNPP as the latter controls BMCI's supervisory board, is well represented in the bank's senior management, and tightly oversees BMCI's risks and business strategy. BMCI benefits from BNPP's organisation, procedures and systems. Commercial synergies with BNPP's subsidiaries in France and Tunisia provide leverage to BMCI's business with multinational companies. In addition, BMCI combines BNPP's branding with its own.

Fitch understands that BMCI has never required any extraordinary support from BNPP. However, ordinary support in the day-to-day activities is well developed, for instance in the form of a counter-guarantee that allows BMCI to meet regulatory requirements on large exposures, and through the provision of all USD and EUR funding needs.

RATING SENSITIVITIES
SUPPORT RATINGS
A downgrade of BMCI's Support Rating may result from a reduction in BNPP's stake in BMCI, reduced strategic importance to or lower integration with BNPP. BMCI's Support Rating would also be downgraded if BNPP's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) was downgraded by at least five notches, which is very unlikely. Finally, BMCI's Support Rating could be downgraded if Morocco's Country Ceiling was revised downwards by at least two notches.

An upgrade of BMCI's Support Rating would require a two-notch upward revision of Morocco's Country Ceiling.

RATING SENSITIVITIES: NATIONAL RATINGS
A downgrade of BMCI's National Ratings may result from a reduction in BNPP's stake in BMCI, reduced strategic importance to or lower integration with BNPP. BMCI's National Ratings would also be downgraded if BNPP's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) was downgraded by at least three notches, which is very unlikely.

The ratings actions are as follows:

National Long-Term Rating: affirmed at 'AAA(mar)'; Outlook Stable
National Short-Term Rating: affirmed at 'F1+(mar)'
Support Rating: affirmed at '2'