Fitch: Macao Banks Challenged by a Sustained Economic Slowdown
The banks' gaming exposure is small at only 3% of assets at end-1Q15, but they have higher exposure to property and China as well as a decent exposure (in aggregate) to other sectors that would be affected by further weakening in gaming revenues. Fitch expects mortgage quality to remain benign, as long as unemployment remains low. Growth in Mainland China exposure (21% of system assets at end-2014) will continue to outpace that of property loans, driven by cross-border trade finance and syndicated loans for property projects, the majority of which are financed by Chinese-owned banks.
Even in the event of asset quality deterioration, the Macao banks' Issuer Default Ratings are unlikely to be affected because all are underpinned by institutional support from much larger parents.
Key areas to watch include Chinese authorities' gaming and anti-corruption policies, banks' risk appetite and improving anti-money laundering practices, and a likely increase in volatility in liquidity flows across borders.
The full report is available on www.fitchratings.com.
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