Fitch Downgrades 3 Distressed Classes of BSCMSI 2007-TOP28
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The affirmations reflect stable performance of the transaction since Fitch's last rating action. The downgrades reflect greater certainty of losses from the specially serviced assets. Fitch modeled losses of 4.8% of the remaining pool; expected losses on the original pool balance total 3.9%, including $50 million (2.8% of the original pool balance) in realized losses to date. Fitch has designated 48 Fitch Loans of Concern (30%), which includes three specially serviced assets (1.9%). Over 50% of the pool consists of retail properties, including nine of the top 15 loans and the largest loan in the pool, representing 12% of the collateral.
As of the June 2015 distribution date, the pool's aggregate principal balance has been reduced by 19.6% to $1.42 billion from $1.76 billion at issuance. Per the servicer reporting, three loans (4.1% of the pool) are defeased. Interest shortfalls are currently affecting classes G through P.
The largest contributor to expected losses is the Pavilions at Hartman Heritage loan (1.7% of the pool), which is secured by a 220,000 square foot (sf) retail property and is located in Independence, MO, within the Kansas City MSA. As of March 2015, occupancy was reported to be 70%, which is significantly lower than the 92% occupancy at origination. The debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) as of year-end (YE) 2014 was 1.19x, slightly lower than the 1.25x reported at YE 2013. The interest-only loan matures in August 2017. While the property saw an over 60% improvement in property cash flow between YE 2011 and 2012, the property is still performing significantly below expectations at issuance when occupancy was 92% and the DSCR was 2.06x.
The next largest contributor to expected losses is the Towne Center Promenade Shopping Center (1%), a 74,762 sf retail property located in Deer Park IL, which is approximately 35 miles northwest of Chicago. The property consists of a stand-alone Dick's Sporting Goods (67% of the net rentable area [NRA]) and four strip outparcels. The loan was transferred to special servicing in April 2012 for monetary default due to the borrower's failure to make the March 2012 scheduled payment and all subsequent payments thereafter. A foreclosure sale occurred in September 2013 and the trust was the highest bidder. Occupancy was reported to be 90% as of May 2015. The special servicer is resolving some tenancy issues prior to putting the property on the market for sale.
The third largest contributor to expected losses is the Hylan Commons loan (2.3%), which is secured by a 85,389 sf retail center located in Staten Island, NY. The property's two largest tenants, TJ Maxx (24.6% of NRA) and Annie Sez (16.4% of NRA), have leases that expire in January 2016. The master servicer reports that neither tenant has yet to give an indication of lease renewal. Fitch's expected losses are primarily driven by the lease rollover risk associated with these two tenants. As of YE 2014, the DSCR and occupancy was reported to be 1.74x and 100%, respectively.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
The ratings on senior classes A-3 through A-J are expected to remain stable as these classes will benefit from increased credit enhancement as the pool continues to pay down. The Rating Outlooks on classes B and C are revised to Stable from Negative due to an overall decrease in expected losses and stabilizing performance of the pool. Upgrades to these classes, as well as class A-J, may be warranted with continued paydown and stable performance. The distressed classes are subject to further downgrade as losses are realized.
DUE DILIGENCE USAGE
No third party due diligence was provided or reviewed in relation to this rating action.
Fitch downgrades the following classes and revises Recovery Estimates (REs) as indicated:
--$22 million class E to 'CCsf' from 'CCCsf'; RE 35%;
--$17.6 million class F to 'Csf' from 'CCsf'; RE 0%;
--$19.8 million class G to 'Csf' from 'CCsf'; RE 0%.
Fitch affirms the following classes and revises Rating Outlooks and REs as indicated:
--$30.8 million class B at 'BBsf'; Outlook to Stable from Negative;
--$15.4 million class C at 'BBsf'; Outlook to Stable from Negative;
--$28.6 million class D at 'CCCsf'; RE 100%.
Fitch affirms the following classes as indicated:
--$32.8 million class A-AB at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--$841.7 million class A-4 at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--$116.5 million class A-1A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--$176.1 million class A-M at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--$114.5 million class A-J at 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable;
--$648,410 class H at 'Dsf'; RE 0%;
--$0 class J at 'Dsf'; RE 0%;
--$0 class K at 'Dsf'; RE 0%;
--$0 class L at 'Dsf'; RE 0%;
--$0 class M at 'Dsf'; RE 0%;
--$0 class N at 'Dsf'; RE 0%;
--$0 class O at 'Dsf'; RE 0%.
The class A-1, A-2 and A-3 certificates have paid in full. Fitch does not rate the class P certificates. Fitch previously withdrew the ratings on the interest-only class X-1 and X-2 certificates.
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