June rain fuels severe Lake Erie algae forecast

OREANDA-NEWS. July 14, 2015. Heavy June rainfall could lead to the most severe algal bloom in Lake Erie since 2011, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The Maumee river, which feeds into the western portion of Lake Erie, saw record nutrient loadings in June because of heavy rains, which will result in a more severe bloom than normal, NOAA said. Phosphorous fertilizer runoff from farm fields is one of the main contributors to the development of harmful algal blooms.

This year's algal bloom is projected to measure 8.7 on NOAA's severity index, potentially reaching as high as 9.5, making it the second most severe on record. The index runs up to 10, reflecting the record level set in 2011 when a bloom covered as much as 2,000 square miles of the lake. Last year's bloom registered at 6.5 on the index. Even at that level, algae rendered drinking water in Toledo, Ohio, unsafe for consumption for two days, sparking legislation aimed at reducing phosphorous loadings into the lake.

NOAA expects the 2015 bloom to develop from west to east and peak in September, with severity varying depending on winds.