Fitch Affirms Eurosail-UK 07-3 BL Plc
The UK non-conforming RMBS transaction remains exposed to euro and US dollar movements against British pounds following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the transactions' initial currency swap provider. Sterling-denominated proceeds from the underlying collateral continue to be converted at the current foreign exchange (FX) spot rates in order for payments to be made on the euro and US dollar-denominated notes. Given the movement of FX rates against the issuer compared with rates at transaction close, the transaction remains significantly under-collateralised.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Movements in FX Risk
Over the past year, the pound has appreciated against the euro, but depreciated against the US dollar. Nevertheless, the majority of Eurosail 07-3's outstanding notes are euro-denominated, which results in lower under-collateralisation than last year. At present, Fitch estimates the level of under-collateralisation to be 20% compared with 25% a year ago.
In its analysis, Fitch considered the negative difference between the original swap rates and current FX spot rates. Additionally, the agency has applied its currency stresses on current spot rates to assess the impact of a potential weakening of the pound against the euro and US dollar. Fitch's analysis indicates that Eurosail 07-3's class A2 notes are able to pass their respective stress scenarios, which is why they have been affirmed. All other outstanding notes have been affirmed at 'CCsf' and 'Csf', reflecting the current under-collateralisation and volatility in FX movements.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Depreciation of the pound against the euro and US dollar beyond Fitch's currency stresses could lead to a greater likelihood of shortfalls on interest and principal liabilities, resulting in a downgrade of the notes.
DUE DILIGENCE USAGE
No third party due diligence was provided or reviewed in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the information it has received about the performance of the asset pool and the transaction. There were no findings that were material to this analysis. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any third party assessment of the asset portfolio information or conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing monitoring.
Fitch did not undertake a review of the information provided about the underlying asset pool ahead of the transaction's initial closing. The subsequent performance of the transaction over the years is consistent with the agency's expectations given the operating environment and Fitch is therefore satisfied that the asset pool information relied upon for its initial rating analysis was adequately reliable.
Overall, Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's rating analysis according to its applicable methodologies indicates that is adequately reliable.
SOURCES OF INFORMATION
The information below was used in the analysis.
- Loan-by-loan data provided by Acenden Limited as at 28 February 2015
- Transaction reporting provided by Acenden Limited as at 31 March 2015
MODELS
The model below was used in the analysis. Click on the link for a description of the model.
EMEA RMBS Surveillance Model
EMEA Cash Flow Model
The rating actions are as follows:
Eurosail - UK 07-3 BL plc
Class A2a (ISIN XS0308648673): affirmed at 'BBsf'; Outlook Stable
Class A2b (ISIN XS0308650224): affirmed at 'BBsf'; Outlook Stable
Class A2c (ISIN XS0308659795): affirmed at 'BBsf'; Outlook Stable
Class A3a (ISIN XS0308666493): affirmed at 'CCsf'; Recovery Estimate (RE) 65%
Class A3c (ISIN XS0308710143): affirmed at 'CCsf'; RE 65%
Class B1a (ISIN XS0308672384): affirmed at 'Csf'; RE 0%
Class B1c (ISIN XS0308716421) affirmed at 'Csf'; RE 0%
Class C1a (ISIN XS0308673192) affirmed at 'Csf'; RE 0%
Class C1c (ISIN XS0308718047) affirmed at 'Csf'; RE 0%
Class D1a (ISIN XS0308673945) affirmed at 'Csf'; RE 0%
Class E1c (ISIN XS0308725844) affirmed at 'Csf'; RE 0%
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