Fitch: Economic Growth Driving Spanish Mortgage Performance
Loans in arrears by more than three months (excluding defaults) continued their downward trend reaching 1.6% in April 2015 down from 2.2% 12 months earlier. Although the volume of borrowers in late-stage arrears is still well above pre-crisis levels (0.2%), Fitch views this trend as positive, and expects it to continue.
Another positive indicator is the decline in the pace of new defaults. As of April 2015, the constant default rate was at 1.1%, which is 60bp below the value reported 12 months ago. Unsurprisingly, the highest default rates are reported for transactions that closed between 2005 and 2007, but even these vintages have reported improved performance since their most recent peak in 2H13.
National home prices increased further at the end of 2014, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.5%. The stabilisation in home prices is also evident from information received on properties in possession and sold. The data suggests that properties sold in 2014 had depreciated by nearly 65% from their original valuations, which is the same level of decline reported in 2013. As credit continues to flow to the economy, Fitch expects prices will continue to rise.
Fitch's 'Mortgage Market Index - Spain' is part of the agency's quarterly series of index reports. It includes information on the performance of residential mortgages, predominantly from RMBS transactions, but also those held on bank balance sheets. The report sets the housing market against the macroeconomic background and provides commentary on emerging trends. The report is available at www.fitchratings.com or by clicking on the link above.
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