OREANDA-NEWS. July 07, 2015. Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Department of La Manche's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at 'AA-' and its Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F1+'. The Outlook is Stable.

La Manche's ratings are underpinned by the department's sound operating performance, moderate indebtedness and strong governance. The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's view that despite expected weakening over the medium term, the department will be able and willing to keep financial metrics compatible with the current ratings.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Despite pressure on operating revenue due to significant cuts in state transfers, Fitch considers that the Department of La Manche will continue to report sound fiscal performance over the medium term. The operating margin remained stable in 2014, at 14.7% of operating revenue. The expected deterioration in performance (to 12.6% of operating revenue in 2017) is mainly due to sharp cuts in state transfers, while operating spending is expected to continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace (on average 1.7% between 2015 and 2018 against 2.1% over 2010-2014) as cost-cutting measures are being implemented. Our projections do not factor in possible tax hikes given the department's commitment not to use the tax lever over the short term.

La Manche's budget structure is only slightly flexible, but nevertheless more favourable than other French departments. About 75% of operating revenue is based on non-modifiable taxes and state transfers, and operating expenditure is driven by rigid items such as staff costs, mandatory transfers and state-defined social spending. Nonetheless, La Manche has a more favourable social spending structure than other departments as it is characterised by lower-than-national average unemployment (8.4% vs. national 10.1% in 4Q14), a high number of retirees (33.56% vs. 26.5%) and a positive inflow of high-income retirees. Possible shrinkage in departmental current transfers would provide some, albeit limited, operating spending flexibility, allowing La Manche to concentrate on its core competencies.

Capital expenditure was EUR78m in 2014 (excluding financial investments), focusing on roads and infrastructure. The department's current balance covered, on average, 72.5% of capital expenditure between 2010 and 2014. We expect self-financing to decline due to a lower current balance going forward. However, this should be limited by a gradual scaling-down of capital expenditure, to an average EUR65m per year between 2015 and 2018.

Debt coverage metrics are likely to weaken but remain comfortable and compatible with the current ratings. Total debt, including other Fitch-classified debt such as that of public-private partnerships or ancillary budgets, to current balance could weaken to around 7.5 years in 2018, from a low six years at end-2014. Although La Manche-guaranteed debt is high in absolute terms (EUR269m at end-2014), Fitch considers risk related to the guaranteed debt as low since the guarantees are mostly to low-risk regulated social housing entities.

RATING SENSITIVITIES
A downgrade could result from La Manche's inability to control its operating expenditure and to adjust its capital expenditure to its self-financing capacity, resulting, for instance, in a debt payback ratio above 10 years.

An improvement of the current margin for several consecutive years, combined with controlled capital expenditure, leading, for instance, to a debt payback ratio consistently lower than five years, could lead to an upgrade.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Our base case scenario relies on the following assumptions:
- Tax rates to remain stable, the tax base will expand, and state transfers to decline significantly;
- Operating expenditure will remain controlled;
- Capital expenditure will not exceed on average EUR65m per year over 2015-2018.