OREANDA-NEWS. July 07, 2015. The latest round of conduct and litigation fines that may be imposed on Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) is already reflected in its standalone Viability Rating of 'bbb+', says Fitch Ratings. We consider the bank's creditworthiness capable of gradual improvement, but it faces strong medium-term challenges, of which profitability is chief, due in part to uncertainty about the size and timing of further regulatory fines. RBS' ratings are sensitive to contingent litigation and conduct costs.

Court filings on behalf of the US Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) highlight that RBS could face potential settlement fees totalling USD13bn (GBP8.3bn) relating to alleged violations linked to the sale of USD32bn of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Legal procedures are likely to take several months and the final outcome is still unclear. But we consider the impact a fine of this magnitude could have on RBS' capital adequacy ratios manageable due to the existing litigation reserves (GBP2.1bn at end-March) and the positive boost to regulatory capital to be generated by the deconsolidation and sale of Citizens Financial Group (CFG) by end-2015.

There is a risk some material charges will be borne before the capital benefit from exiting CFG will be realised. But we believe a meaningful underlying cushion to absorb further potential fines will come from the capital base of GBP40bn core equity Tier 1 at end-1Q15 (or around GBP47bn of Fitch Core Capital), and the likely reduction in risk-weighted assets (RWA) from GBP394bn to GBP300bn by end-2015 to be achieved through further de-risking and the CFG sale. Further RWA reductions are planned for the medium term.

The FHFA began litigation against 18 financial institutions in 2011 regarding securities law violations in the sale of private label securities to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the mid-2000s. Most institutions named in the suits agreed to settle. The sum paid by JPMorgan, one of the first to settle, represented roughly 12% of the original face value of the MBS it had originally underwritten, structured or distributed. Settlement rates varied significantly, from 1% to 14% of face value.

MBS volumes linked to RBS are by far the largest under discussion and yesterday's filing suggests a potential fine equivalent to 40% of MBS face value, considerably higher than the outcome for other negotiated settlements.