Fitch Downgrades 3 Andorran Banks
The ratings have been removed from Rating Watch Negative (RWN) and the Outlooks on the Long-term IDRs are Stable. A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary.
The IDRs of the three banks have been downgraded following a reassessment by Fitch of the operating environment in Andorra. This reassessment includes Fitch's view of the stage of development of Andorra's financial market, which is characterised by a lack of direct access by the banks to a lender of last resort, and of its regulatory framework. In its assessment Fitch has also taken into account individual developments at the three banks.
This revision completes the review started on 23 March when Andorran banks were placed on RWN due to spill-over effects from the naming of Banca Privada d'Andorra (BPA) as a foreign financial institution of primary money laundering concern by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network's (FinCEN).
KEY RATING DRIVERS
IDRS AND VRS
Fitch views the operating environment as a constraint on the banks' VRs and therefore of high importance for the ratings. We consider the regulatory framework as developing compared with some of the more advanced frameworks in Europe and financial reporting as less transparent than at many international peers. We, however, expect that transparency and comparability with international peers and counterparties will improve with the pending implementation of IFRS and Basel III by 2017.
The limited development of financial markets in Andorra, among other aspects, is reflected in the lack of a lender of last resort. Central bank access can only be achieved through the banks' international subsidiaries, which we view as less reliable and a major shortcoming versus international peers, thus affecting the banks' funding and liquidity scores. The funding and liquidity scores are reflected in the lower of the two possible Short-term IDRs for banks with a Long-term IDR of 'BBB' for Andbank and Credit Andorra.
At the same time Fitch acknowledges the authorities' swift measures to manage the fallout from BPA, to the extent of isolating the impact on the economy and on the rest of the financial system. Fitch also recognises that the country is adopting all EU directives for the financial system as per the monetary agreement, a process that is expected to be completed by 2017.
Fitch expects GDP growth to slow in 2015, due to the large size of the banking sector in the economy and the challenges that this sector faces, particularly in terms of profitability pressure from low interest rates, asset quality, assets under management outflows (AUMs) and capacity to attract new business in Andorra. Fitch expects the bank's domestic loan books to continue to deleverage in view of limited opportunities.
The three banks focus on private banking/wealth management activities and they also maintain a retail presence in Andorra. All banks have been growing their assets under management in recent years, particularly Andbank and Credit Andorra as they have been expanding internationally through a combination of organic and inorganic growth, while MoraBanc has a more limited international presence. Nevertheless, their franchises in international private banking are still small.
Fitch expects some spill-over effect from BPA on the banks' business growth prospects, particularly in Spain (where Andbank and Credit Andorra have banking subsidiaries) and Andorra. Net new money outflows since FinCEN's announcement have been limited and are now stabilising. The banks have been actively managing their balance sheet liquidity and maintaining them at fairly stable levels.
The recently implemented law on mechanisms for restructuring and resolution of banking institutions will enable the Andorran authorities to resolve banks according to international practices. The resolution plan for BPA includes the creation of a new bank, which will inherit all of BPA's legitimate assets and liabilities after an independent review of anti-money laundering (AML) of all customers. The aim is to regain access to correspondent banks and resume operation under normal circumstances before the bank is sold off via an auction.
Under the resolution law, a EUR30m resolution fund has been set up, provided by the Andorran banks. In addition, Andorra also has a deposit guarantee fund, which at end-2014 totalled around EUR112m. The banks' contributions to these funds are accounted for as non-distributable reserves, which could affect their capital ratios if the funds are utilised.
Andbank's ratings further reflect risks related to the fast expansion of the bank's activities, particularly following the acquisition of Banco Inversis in 2014. This transaction had a negative impact on capital ratios, but Fitch assumes that capital will be restored to historical levels within a fairly short timeframe. The ratings also take into account Andbank's diversification and strong earnings generation capacity.
Credit Andorra's ratings also reflect its proportionally larger exposure to the domestic economy, which has suffered from a long recession, and continued weakening of asset quality (including foreclosed assets). The ratings also consider the bank's strong earnings generation, adequate capital and a balanced approach towards international expansion.
MoraBanc's ratings also take into account a more limited and concentrated franchise than peers and the failure to complete its first acquisition in Spain, which would have provided it with AUM of about EUR3bn. They also consider increased risk appetite underlined by growing exposure to equity investments and diversification away from the core banking business in 2014.
The low interest rate environment and limited lending demand has led the bank to look for alternative earnings opportunities, including in syndicated loans and alternative investments. Fitch views the increased exposure to equity investments, arising from the use of the bank's balance sheet to develop new investment product offerings, as carrying higher risk than its core business. The ratings also reflect strong earnings generation capacity and capital levels.
The Stable Outlooks on the banks' ratings reflect our expectation of stabilising key credit factors despite remaining uncertainties related to the resolution of BPA. Fitch assumes that incremental risks related to BPA will be manageable for the banks and the ratings do not capture the potential involvement of the Andorran banks in corporate transactions resulting from BPA's resolution.
SUPPORT RATING AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR
The banks' Support Ratings (SRs) of '5' and Support Rating Floors (SRFs) of 'No Floor' reflect Fitch's view of a low probability of the Andorran banks receiving support in case of need. This in turn reflects limited resources at the authorities' disposal as well as the progress made by Andorra to implement a framework for resolving banks in accordance with the EU's BRRD.
CREDIT ANDORRA'S PREFERRED STOCK
Credit Andorra's preferred stock is rated five notches below the bank's VR to reflect higher loss severity than the average for senior unsecured creditors and the higher-than-average risk of non-performance given discretionary coupon payments. The preferred stock has been downgraded in line with the VR.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
IDRS AND VRS
In view of Fitch's revised assessment of the operating environment in Andorra, near-term rating upside is limited. In the medium-term, the bank's IDRs and VRs are sensitive to a change in Fitch's assessment of the operating environment in Andorra, which may for example benefit from further alignment of its financial markets and regulatory framework with other European countries.
The ratings are also sensitive to progress on the resolution for BPA and the impact that this may have on the confidence in the banking system and the financial profiles of these three banks, including the evolution of AUM, deposits and liquidity. Fitch's base case assumption is that potential additional costs for the system will be manageable. The ratings also assume continued sound capital ratios, supported by an ability to generate capital internally through earnings. A weakening of capital ratios could therefore put pressure on the ratings.
Andbank's ratings are also sensitive to the bank's ability to restore capital after the Inversis acquisition and the execution of its growth strategy.
Credit Andorra's ratings are also sensitive to the bank's ability to stabilise asset quality; further deterioration of the loan book could therefore put pressure on the ratings.
Morabanc's ratings are also sensitive to developments in the bank's risk appetite, such as increasing exposure to equity investments and other sources of diversification away from its core banking activities, which could negative affect the ratings.
SUPPORT RATING AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR
An upgrade to the SR and upward revision to the SRF of these banks would be contingent on a positive change in the sovereign's propensity to support its banks. While not impossible, this is highly unlikely in Fitch's view.
SUBORDINATED DEBT AND OTHER HYBRID SECURITIES
Credit Andorra's preferred stock ratings are broadly sensitive to the same considerations that might affect its VR.
The rating actions are as follows:
Credit Andorra:
Long-term IDR: downgraded to 'BBB' from 'A-', removed from RWN, Outlook Stable
Short-term IDR: downgraded to 'F3' from 'F2', removed from RWN
VR: downgraded to 'bbb' from 'a-', removed from RWN
Preference shares: downgraded to 'B+' from 'BB', removed from RWN
Support Rating: affirmed at '5'
Support Rating Floor: affirmed at 'No Floor'
Andbank:
Long-term IDR: downgraded to 'BBB' from 'A-', removed from RWN, Outlook Stable
Short-term IDR: downgraded to 'F3' from 'F2', removed from RWN
VR: downgraded to 'bbb' from 'a-', removed from RWN
Support Rating affirmed at '5'
Support Rating Floor affirmed at 'No Floor'
MoraBanc:
Long-term IDR: downgraded to 'BBB-' from 'A-', removed from RWN, Outlook Stable
Short-term IDR: downgraded to 'F3' from 'F2', removed from RWN
VR: downgraded to 'bbb-' from 'a-', removed from RWN
Support Rating affirmed at '5'
Support Rating Floor affirmed at 'No Floor'.
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