OREANDA-NEWS. June 30, 2015. Fitch Ratings has upgraded the following ratings of Banning Community Redevelopment Agency, California's (the agency) tax allocation bonds (TABs):

--\\$26.9 million TABs (Merged Downtown and Midway Redevelopment Project) series 2007 to 'BBB-' from 'BB+'.

The Rating Outlook is Stable.

SECURITY
Per the indenture, the TABs are payable by non-housing tax increment net of county administrative fees and senior pass-throughs. The TABs additionally are payable from surplus former 20% housing set-aside revenues per dissolution statute. The bonds have a cash-funded debt service reserve fund.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

SUFFICIENT AV CUSHION: The 'BBB-' reflects the TABs' sufficient assessed valuation (AV) cushion (defined as the degree of AV loss required to cause debt service coverage to fall to a sum sufficient amount) resulting from new development as well as AV gains due to the economic recovery. Fitch expects continued AV gains through at least fiscal 2016 and would expect a future AV loss scenario to be moderate compared to the last recession.

LARGE PROJECT AREA/WEAKER ECONOMIC INDICATORS: The merged project area is large at 3,283 acres and makes up a significant part of the city, encompassing 22% of the city's land area and roughly a third of its population of about 35,000. Banning's income levels are well below state and national averages. Unemployment continues to recover and the March 2015 rate of 5.8% is below the national average but remains slightly above the U.S. rate.

CLOSED LIEN AFTER DISSOLUTION: Fitch considers all TAB liens to be closed, as successor agencies are not permitted to issue new money TABs. In addition, all of the 20% housing set-aside revenues are available for non-housing TAB debt service as the agency has no outstanding housing debt.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

TAX OVERRIDE CONSIDERATIONS: Positive rating action is possible if Fitch determines that the agency's tax rate override revenues will continue to be allocated to the agency.

TAX BASE PERFORMANCE IS KEY: Future AV performance significantly outside of Fitch's range of expectations may result in positive or negative rating action.

CREDIT PROFILE

The city of Banning is located in western Riverside County, 84 miles east of downtown Los Angeles and 23 miles west of Palm Springs, situated on the major I-10 distribution route.

CONTINUED MODERATE IMPROVEMENT IN TAX BASE

The project area's tax base shrank for four consecutive years, with a steep peak to trough AV loss of 23.2% from fiscal years 2009-2013. The magnitude of AV loss reflected a combination of lack of tax base maturity and a distressed housing market. In fiscal 2014, AV grew for the first time since fiscal 2009, marking a solid 5.2% increase. AV grew again in fiscal 2015, but more moderately, increasing 2% over the prior year.

Fitch believes the tax base is well positioned for future modest AV growth. Year-over-year gains through Jan. 1, 2015 (the valuation date from which fiscal 2016 AV levels are calculated) increased by 3.8% according to Zillow; however, Proposition 13 will limit the tax base's overall gains to a lower amount. In addition, new developments under construction will continue to support AV growth as they are completed.

UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OVERRIDE STATUS

The agency receives a 0.17% tax rate override levied for an overlapping water agency. Fitch is concerned that the override, which would add an additional \\$781,000 (18% of total available increment) to Fitch-estimated net available increment in fiscal 2015, could cease to be provided to the agency. State Assembly Bill 1484 (the dissolution trailer bill) governs such tax overrides, but it is not clear how the agency's tax override would be treated if challenged. To date the agency has received the tax override each year and there has been no challenge to this practice continuing. The agency is seeking legal guidance on the security of this revenue stream going forward. Based on future information provided, if Fitch determines that the tax override will continue to be available to repay the bonds, there could be positive rating action.

LOW BUT IMPROVING DEBT SERVICE COVERAGE

Annual debt service (ADS) coverage in fiscal 2015 remains low, at 1.24x compared to 1.17x the prior year. The increase in ADS in fiscal 2015 stems primarily from an increase in supplemental tax revenue. Based on these levels, Fitch estimates the TABs' AV cushion at a low but adequate 14%. Fitch-calculated coverage and AV cushion would be materially higher at 1.6x and 26% including continued receipt of tax rate overrides.

CONTINUED SMOOTH DEBT REPAYMENT PROCESS

Dissolution related (AB 1X 26) risks are being mitigated as management is continuing to adhere to indenture requirements, necessary revenue tracking is in place, and timely and robust continuing disclosure reports are being provided.