Fitch Rates Northern States Power-Wisconsin's FMBs 'A+'
The Rating Outlook is Stable.
Net proceeds will be used for the repayment of short-term debt and other general corporate purposes.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Supportive Regulatory Environment: NSP-W's ratings reflect the constructive regulatory framework in Wisconsin. Rate design mechanisms are supportive of credit quality, with above-average authorized returns on equity (ROEs), forward-looking test years, a purchased gas adjustment clause, and annual filings for fuel and purchased energy adjustments.
In December 2014, the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin (PSCW) issued its order increasing NSP-W's electric base rates by \$14.2 million, representing 69% of the utility's initial request. New rates became effective January 2015 and were based on a 10.2% ROE and a 52.54% common equity ratio.
Elevated Capex: Fitch's main rating concern relates to the relatively sizeable capital spending program over the forecast period. NSP-W plans to spend a total of \$1.44 billion in capex over 2015-2019, significantly higher than historical norms. Capex is primarily earmarked for transmission spending, including NSP-W's Wisconsin portion of the CapX2020 transmission project.
Stable Credit Metrics: For the LTM ended March 31, 2015, FFO fixed charge coverage stood at 6.9x, FFO lease-adjusted leverage at 3.1x, and adjusted debt/EBITDAR at 3.0x. Over the 2015-2017 timeframe, Fitch forecasts FFO fixed charge coverage to average 6.0x, FFO lease-adjusted leverage to average 3.5x, and adjusted debt/EBITDAR to average 3.3x. The forecasted metrics reflect capex continuing to increase through the 2019.
Fitch expects NSP-W to fund capex in a manner that is consistent with its authorized regulatory capital structure (52.54% common equity ratio), with a mix of internally generated funds, long-term debt issuances, and parent equity infusions. Fitch views the parent support as a credit positive for NSP-W.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch's key assumptions within the rating case for NSP-W include:
--Electricity sales growth averaging 0.5%;
--O&M expense growing at 3%;
--Rate case outcomes consistent with historical rate orders.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Positive: Given the already strong rating and an elevated capex program, a positive rating action is unlikely in the near term.
Negative: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to a negative rating action include:
--A deterioration of the Wisconsin regulatory environment;
--Adjusted debt/EBITDAR weakening to 3.75x; and
--A shift in management strategy that results in weaker financial support from parent Xcel Energy, Inc. (XEL).
LIQUIDITY
NSP-W has adequate liquidity and meets its short-term obligations primarily through the issuance of commercial paper under its \$150 million bank credit facility, which expires in October 2019. At March 31, 2015, NSP-W had \$70 million available under its credit facility. There are no long-term debt maturities prior to 2018, when \$150 million becomes due.
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