Fitch Rates Energy Transfer Partners Sr. Unsecured Notes Offering 'BBB-'
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Increased Size, Scale and Diversity: Recent mergers and growth projects at ETP have resulted in a larger, more diversified, and generally stronger partnership. ETP's percentage of contractually supported fee-based margins has gradually increased. The recently closed merger between ETP and Regency Energy Partners, LP (RGP) is expected to provide ETP with increased cash flows driven by expected synergies and improved returns on growth projects previously planned at RGP. ETP should benefit from the increased size and scale, an increased project backlog, and increased geographic exposure, particularly in West Texas and the Marcellus and Utica shales. With ETP's merger with RGP and its interests in Sunoco, LP (SUN; rated 'BB'/Stable Outlook by Fitch) and Sunoco Logistics LP (SXL; 'BBB'/Stable Outlook), ETP's operating assets and retail platform provide further diversified geographic and business line exposure and a major platform for growth within most of the major U.S. production regions.
Moderate Leverage Metrics: Fitch expects ETP's adjusted consolidated debt/EBITDA should range between 4.0x to 4.5x in both 2015 and 2016. If leverage were to be meaningfully above 4.5x on a sustained basis, Fitch would likely take a negative rating action.
Modest Commodity Price Exposure: Pro-forma for the merger, ETP expects that roughly 85% to 87% of its cash flows are fee based for 2015. As such, expectations are that cash flows remain relatively stable even in the current weak commodity price environment.
Other Rating Considerations: ETP's structural subordination to subsidiary debt and uncertainties resulting from potential future structural changes are also considered. The potential effect on pipeline system utilization and related re-contracting risk resulting from changing natural gas supply dynamics is a longer-term concern.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch's key assumptions within the rating case for the issuer include:
--WTI oil price that trends up from \$50/barrel in 2015 to \$60/barrel in 2016 and a long-term price of \$70/barrel; and Henry Hub gas that trends up from \$3/mcf in 2015 to a long-term price of \$3.75/mcf consistent with Fitch's published Base Case commodity price deck;
--Moderate revenue growth on existing assets;
--Balanced funding with both debt and equity of growth capital spending and acquisitions
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Positive: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to a positive rating action include:
--A material improvement in credit metrics with ETP adjusted leverage sustained at between 3.5x and 4.0x;
--Reduced consolidated business risk as ETP acquires and expands fixed-fee operations.
Negative: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to a negative rating action include:
--Weakening credit metrics with ETP leverage above 5.0x on a sustained basis would likely lead to a downgrade to BB+;
--Increasing commodity price exposure above 30% could lead to a negative ratings action.
LIQUIDITY
Liquidity is Adequate: ETP has access to a \$3.75 billion unsecured five-year revolving credit facility that matures in November 2019. As of March 31, 2015, ETP had no borrowings under the credit facility. On April 30, 2015 ETP borrowed \$1.5 billion to partially repay the RGP credit facility. The bank agreement contains a financial covenant that provides that on each date ETP makes a distribution, the leverage ratio, as defined in the credit agreement, shall not exceed 5.0x. With permitted acquisitions leverage can temporarily increase to 5.5x. ETP is currently in compliance with this covenant.
Fitch's ratings for ETP are as follows:
Energy Transfer Partners, LP
--IDR 'BBB-';
--Senior unsecured debt 'BBB-';
--Junior subordinated debt 'BB'.
The Rating Outlook is Stable.
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