OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Long-term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs), Viability Ratings (VRs) and Support Ratings of Turkiye Is Bankasi (Isbank), Akbank T.A.S. (Akbank) and Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi (YKB). The Outlooks on the banks' Long-term IDRs are Stable. The IDRs, Support Rating and National Rating of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi (Garanti) have been maintained on Rating Watch Positive (RWP), pending the increase in BBVA's ownership to a controlling stake.

Isbank, Akbank and Garanti's 'BBB-' Long-term IDRs are driven by their standalone creditworthiness, as reflected in their 'bbb-' VRs, while that of YKB (BBB) is based on potential support from UniCredit S.p.A. (BBB+/Stable), one of its two major shareholders.

Fitch has also affirmed the Long-term IDRs of subsidiaries of Isbank, Akbank and YKB, and maintained the Long-term IDRs of Garanti's subsidiaries on RWP. These ratings are equalised with those of their parent institutions.

A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary.

KEY RATING DRIVERS
IDRS, NATIONAL RATINGS AND SENIOR DEBT OF ISBANK, GARANTI AND AKBANK; SUBORDINATED DEBT OF ISBANK; VRS OF ALL FOUR BANKS
The 'bbb-' VRs of all four banks continue to reflect their reasonable financial metrics - in terms of asset quality, performance and capitalisation - underpinned by their strong franchises. In addition, they reflect Fitch's base case expectation of continued growth in Turkey, with GDP forecast to rise by 3.2% and 3.8% in 2015 and 2016, respectively, and our view that any moderate deterioration in the operating environment will be manageable for the banks, given their sound financial profiles.

The banks' asset quality has historically outperformed (or in YKB's case, been broadly in line with) the sector average. Non-performing loans (NPLs, defined as loans overdue by 90 days) remained low at between 1.6% and 3.3% of respective gross loans at end-1Q15. In addition, performance ratios, although having weakened in recent years, remain sound. The banks reported returns on equity in the range of 10.7% to 14.8% in 2014, notwithstanding the difficult operating environment, margin pressure and the cumulative impact of regulation on profitability.

Loss absorption buffers at all four banks remain sound, despite the gradual increase in leverage (from previously low levels) in recent years. Their Fitch Core Capital (FCC)/weighted risks ratios ranged from 10% to 13% at end-1Q15, and capital positions are further supported by reasonable reserve coverage of impaired loans and solid internal capital generation. Pre-impairment profit ranged from 21% to 28% of the banks' equity bases in 2014, indicating significant capacity to absorb unexpected losses through income statements. Loan growth targets for 2015 are less aggressive than in preceding years, and Fitch expects capital ratios to moderate only slightly during the year (unless there is a further marked depreciation of the Turkish lira).

Foreign currency (FC) denominated wholesale funding, attracted mainly on international markets, has risen significantly at all four banks since 2011 (equal to between 20% and 30% of non-equity funding at end-1Q15). As a result, Fitch believes that the banks' FC liquidity risks have increased, particularly given the sizable short-term component of this funding. Fitch views this risk as more moderate at YKB and Garanti, given their expected access to FC from foreign shareholders in case of need, while Akbank's short-term FC debt is somewhat higher than at peers.

At the same time, Fitch's base case remains that the banks will continue to enjoy good market access. In addition, their short-term FC liquidity positions are reasonable, with FC liabilities due within a year broadly covered by available FC liquidity (primarily, placements with the Turkish Central Bank under the Reserve Option Mechanism and maturing currency swaps). Consequently, the banks should be reasonably placed to cope with a short-lived market closure. Nevertheless, a prolonged loss of market access, combined with broader stress in Turkey's external finances, could significantly strain FC liquidity positions.

The high level of long-term FC-denominated, largely corporate, lending (between 30% and 40% of total portfolios at each of the four banks) is a source of potential credit risk. Such loans consist mainly of long-term exposures, often to unhedged or weakly hedged borrowers. As many are among the banks' largest loans, they also bring concentration risk. However, mitigating these risks is the fact that such loans are generally to prime corporates in Turkey with diversified businesses and revenues, and any deterioration in these exposures is also likely to be only gradual as they amortise slowly.

Exposure to the volatile Turkish market is a highly important factor for the banks' ratings, and downside risks have moderately increased. This follows the inconclusive parliamentary elections in June that have given rise to near-term political uncertainty and potential disruption to the economic policy framework. The potential for slower economic growth, lira depreciation, higher interest rates and weaker investor sentiment towards Turkey could all weigh on banks' credit profiles. At the same time, any deterioration in the operating environment is likely to be moderate, in Fitch's view, and the four banks have sufficient capital and liquidity buffers to absorb mild shocks (see 'Fitch: Political Uncertainty Creates Risks for Turkish Banks', dated 12 June 2015 at www.fitchratings.com.)

KEY RATING DRIVERS: YKB's IDRS, NATIONAL RATING, SUPPORT RATING AND SENIOR AND SUBORDINATED DEBT
YKB's IDRs and National Rating are driven by potential support from Unicredit, which via Unicredit Bank Austria (BBB+/Stable), owns a 50% stake in YKB's holding company (which in turn holds a 82% stake in YKB). In Fitch's opinion, YKB is a strategically important subsidiary for Unicredit, taking into account the continued high strategic importance of Turkey and the Central and Eastern Europe region for Unicredit. Hence Fitch notches YKB's Long-term IDRs down once from those of Unicredit. The upgrade of YKB's Short-term IDR to 'F2' from 'F3' reflects the available of liquidity support from Unicredit.

KEY RATING DRIVERS: AKBANK'S, GARANTI'S AND ISBANK'S SUPPORT RATINGS AND SUPPORT RATING FLOORS
Akbank, Garanti and Isbank's '3' Support Ratings and 'BB-' Support Rating Floors (SRFs) are based on potential support from the Turkish sovereign (BBB-/Stable), reflecting their systemic importance. The three-notch difference between Turkey's sovereign ratings and the SRFs reflects potential limitations on the authorities' ability to provide FC support, given the banks' growing and sizable FC wholesale funding and the sovereign's moderate FC reserves.

KEY RATING DRIVERS: SUBSIDIARIES
The Long- and Short-term IDRs assigned to Akbank A.G.(AAG), Ak Finansal Kiralama A.S. (Aklease), Is Finansal Kiralama A.S. (Is Leasing), Is Faktoring A.S. (Is Factoring), Garanti Faktoring A.S. (Garanti Factoring), Garanti Finansal Kiralama A.S. (Garanti Leasing), Yapi Kredi Finansal Kiralama A.S. (YKL) and Yapi Kredi Faktoring A.S. (YKF) and the Long-term National Rating of Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler A.S. (Is Investment), are equalised with those of their respective parents, reflecting Fitch's view that they are core, highly integrated, subsidiaries. The upgrade of YK and YKL's Short-term IDRs to 'F2' from 'F3' reflects the available of liquidity support from their parent.

RATING SENSITIVITIES
VRS OF ALL FOUR BANKS; IDRS, NATIONAL RATINGS AND DEBT RATINGS OF ISBANK AND AKBANK
The VRs of all four banks are sensitive to a marked deterioration in Turkey's economic performance and/or restricted access of the banking sector to wholesale funding markets, potentially resulting in significant deterioration in asset quality and FX liquidity. However, this is not Fitch's base case. Upside potential for the VRs of all four banks is limited, given that they are already at the level of the sovereign rating. Isbank and Akbank's IDRs, National ratings and debt ratings are primarily sensitive to a change in the banks' VRs.

IDRs, NATIONAL RATINGS, SENIOR DEBT RATING, SUPPORT RATING AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR OF GARANTI
The RWP on Garanti's ratings reflects Fitch's expectation that the bank will likely be upgraded by one notch (to 'BBB', the level of Turkey's Country Ceiling) on the basis of shareholder support following the increase of BBVA's stake. This transaction is currently awaiting regulatory approval but Fitch understands it is likely to take place in 3Q15. If and when Garanti's ratings become driven by institutional support, Fitch will withdraw the bank's SRF.

IDRS, NATIONAL RATING, SUPPORT RATING AND SENIOR AND SUBORDINATED DEBT OF YKB
The Stable Outlook on YKB's IDRs reflects that on its parent. A downgrade of Unicredit would result in a downgrade of YKB's ratings. A downgrade of Turkey's sovereign rating and revision of the Country Ceiling (BBB) would also result in a downgrade of YKB's Long-term FC IDR. However, an upgrade of YKB would require both (i) positive rating action on Unicredit; and (ii) the raising of Turkey's Country Ceiling.

SUPPORT RATINGS AND SUPPORT RATING FLOORS OF ISBANK AND AKBANK
The SRFs of Isbank and Akbank could be revised down if either (i) the Turkish sovereign is downgraded; (ii) the FC positions of the banks, or more generally Turkey's external finances, deteriorate considerably, or (iii) Fitch believes the sovereign's propensity to support the banks has reduced. The introduction of bank resolution legislation in Turkey aimed at limiting sovereign support for failed banks could negatively impact Fitch's view of support propensity, and hence the banks' SRs and SRFs. However, Fitch does not expect this in the short term.

Upward revisions of the banks' SRFs are unlikely unless there is a marked strengthening of the sovereign's ability to support the banks in FC.

SUBSIDIARIES
The subsidiaries' ratings are sensitive to any changes in (i) the parents' ratings; and (ii) Fitch's view of the ability and propensity of the parents to provide support in case of need.

The RWP on the ratings of Garanti Faktoring and Garanti Leasing reflects Fitch's expectation they will continue to be aligned with Garanti following the expected upgrade of the parent.

The rating actions are as follows:

Turkiye Is Bankasi A.S., Akbank A.S.
Long-term FC and local currency (LC) IDRs affirmed at 'BBB-'; Outlook Stable
Short-term FC and local currency IDRs affirmed at 'F3'
Viability Rating affirmed at 'bbb-'
Support Rating affirmed at '3'
Support Rating Floor affirmed at 'BB-'
National Long-term Rating affirmed at 'AA+(tur)'; Outlook Stable
Senior unsecured notes affirmed at 'BBB-'/'F3'
Subordinated notes (Isbank only) affirmed at 'BB+'

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S.
Long-term FC and LC IDRs : 'BBB-' maintained on RWP
Short-term FC and LC IDRs: 'F3' maintained on RWP
Viability Rating affirmed at 'bbb-'
Support Rating: '3' maintained on RWP
Support Rating Floor affirmed at 'BB-'
National Long-term Rating: 'AA+(tur)' maintained on RWP
Senior unsecured notes 'BBB-'/'F3' maintained on RWP

Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi A.S.
Long-term FC and LC IDRs affirmed at 'BBB'; Stable Outlook
Short-term FC and LC IDRs upgraded to 'F2' from 'F3'
Viability Rating affirmed at 'bbb-'
Support Rating affirmed at '2'
National Long-term Rating affirmed at 'AAA(tur)'; Stable Outlook
Senior unsecured debt affirmed at 'BBB'
Short-term senior unsecured debt upgraded to 'F2' from 'F3'
Subordinated notes affirmed at 'BBB-'

Akbank A.G.
Long-term FC IDR affirmed at 'BBB-'; Outlook Stable
Short-term FC IDR affirmed at 'F3'
Support Rating affirmed at '2'

Ak Finansal Kiralama A.S.
Long-term FC and LC IDRs affirmed at 'BBB-'; Outlook Stable
Short-term FC and LC IDRs affirmed at 'F3'
Support Rating affirmed at '2'
National Long-term Rating affirmed at 'AA+(tur)'; Outlook Stable
Senior unsecured debt Long-term ratings affirmed at 'BBB-'
Senior unsecured debt Short-term ratings affirmed at 'F3'

Is Finansal Kiralama A.S. and Is Faktoring A.S.
Long-term FC and LC IDRs affirmed at 'BBB-'; Outlook Stable
Short-term FC and LC IDRs affirmed at 'F3'
Support Rating affirmed at '2'
National Long-term Rating affirmed at 'AA+(tur)'; Outlook Stable

Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler A.S.
National Long-term Rating affirmed at 'AA+(tur)'; Outlook Stable

Yapi Kredi Finansal Kiralama A.O. and Yapi Kredi Faktoring A.S.
Long-term FC and LC IDRs affirmed at 'BBB'; Outlook Stable
Short-term FC and LC IDRs upgraded to 'F2' from 'F3'
Support Rating affirmed at '2'
National Long-term Rating affirmed at 'AAA(tur)'; Outlook Stable

Garanti Faktoring A.S. and Garanti Finansal Kiralama A.S.
Long-term FC and LC IDRs: 'BBB-'; RWP maintained
Short-term FC and LC IDRs: 'F3', RWP maintained
Support Rating affirmed at '2'
National Long-term Rating: 'AA+(tur)'; RWP maintained