Opec says fundamentals justify rollover
The statement issued at the end of the meeting today said non-Opec production growth in 2015 will be only 700,000 b/d, one third of the 2014 rate. Second-half 2015 global demand and 2016 demand is forecast to grow, led by non-OECD countries, the statement said, adding that the global economy has stabilised even if only at a moderate growth rate.
The next meeting of Opec ministers is scheduled for 4 December, 2015.
At a press conference, Opec secretary-general Abdullah al-Badri said "the market will not justify \$100/bl any more". He said Opec has no price target and that prices would be set by the market.
Several ministers said ahead of the meeting that a price of \$70-80/bl would be "equitable". Notably, the minister of traditional price hawk Iran said most Opec members thought \$75/bl to be a "fair" price.
Alternate Opec president Qatar energy minister Mohammed al-Sada said the decision to rollover the 30mn b/d target production level that has been in place since December 2011 was unanimous. Actual production by Opec members has been running at over 31mn b/d in recent months and Saudi Arabia's production in May ran at 10.3mn b/d. But al-Sada said the 30mn bl level is a full-year average. Al-Badri said it was important that members adhere to the target level. The comments about adherence and return to the use of the term "ceiling" for the production level target, a word not used since 2013, were the only apparent sops to member countries that harbour doubts about the market share strategy pushed through by Saudi Arabia and its allies last year.
The Opec secretariat publishes it monthly report on the oil market on 10 June. In addition to the most recent forecasts for demand growth and non-Opec production, it will contain members' latest official data on their actual output for May.
The statement made passing reference to technical and market cooperation talks between Opec and non-Opec officials, indicating that there is no more prospect of co-ordination of production levels than there was when Opec last met in November.
Front month Brent rose by around \$1.50/bl to \$62.80/bl in the wake of the Opec meeting. The price had slipped during the week, closing yesterday at \$62.10/bl, down from \$65.33/bl on 2 June.
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