Fitch to Rate Santander Drive Auto Receivables Trust 2015-3; Issues Presale
--\$125,000,000 class A-1 notes 'F1+sf';
--\$236,000,000 class A-2A/A-2B notes 'AAAsf';
--\$99,147,000 class A-3 notes 'AAAsf';
--\$106,765,000 class B notes 'AAsf';
--\$114,706,000 class C notes 'Asf';
--\$68,382,000 class D notes 'BBBsf';
--\$44,118,000 class E notes 'BBsf'.
The Ratings Outlook for all the notes is Stable.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Consistent Credit Quality: 2015-3 is backed by collateral consistent with 2014 and 2015 transactions with a WA FICO score of 597 vs. internal WA loss forecast score (LFS) of 555. The WA seasoning is nearly three months, new vehicles have increased to 37.8% compared to 32.5% in 2015-1, and the pool is geographically diverse.
Increased Extended Term Contracts: Loans with terms of 60+ months total 91.9%, driven by a notable increase in 73-75-term loans totaling 14.1%, increased from 6.9% in 2015-1 and the highest historically for the SDART platform. Fitch applied a stress to the loss proxy to account for the risk posed by these loans since there is limited performance history and the expectation is that they will perform worse than loans with terms less than or equal to 72 months.
Sufficient Credit Enhancement and Structure: The cash flow distribution is a sequential pay structure. Initial hard credit enhancement (CE) totals 49.85% for the class A notes, increased from 48.25% in the prior two SDART transactions.
Stable Portfolio/Securitization Performance: Although within range of 2010-2012 performance, recent 2013-2014 losses are tracking slightly higher to date above the 2012 vintage, driven by marginally weaker collateral underwriting and lower recoveries from softer used vehicle values.
Stable Corporate Health: SCUSA recorded solid financial results recently and has been profitable since 2007. Fitch rates Santander, majority owner of SCUSA, 'A-/F2', Rating Outlook Stable.
Consistent Origination/Underwriting/Servicing: SCUSA demonstrates adequate abilities as originator, underwriter, and servicer, evidenced by historical portfolio delinquency, loss experience, and securitization performance. Fitch deems SCUSA capable to service 2015-3.
Legal Structure Integrity: The legal structure of the transaction should provide that a bankruptcy of SCUSA would not impair the timeliness of payments on the securities.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Unanticipated increases in the frequency of defaults and loss severity on defaulted receivables could produce loss levels higher than the base case. This in turn could result in Fitch taking negative rating actions on the notes.
Fitch evaluated the sensitivity of the ratings assigned to Santander Drive Auto Receivables Trust 2015-3 to increased credit losses over the life of the transaction. Fitch's analysis found that the transaction displays some sensitivity to increased defaults and credit losses. This shows a potential downgrade of one or two categories under Fitch's moderate (1.5x base case loss) scenario, especially for the subordinate bonds. The notes could experience downgrades of three or more rating categories, potentially leading to distressed ratings (below 'Bsf') or possibly default, under Fitch's severe (2.5x base case loss) scenario.
DUE DILIGENCE USAGE
No third party due diligence was provided or reviewed in relation to this rating action.
Fitch's analysis of the Representations and Warranties (R&W) of this transaction can be found in the reports titled 'Santander Drive Auto Receivables Trust 2015-3 -- Appendix'. These R&W are compared to those of typical R&W for the asset class as detailed in the special report 'Representations, Warranties, and Enforcement Mechanisms in Global Structured Finance Transactions' dated March 26, 2015.
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