Fitch: U.S. Credit Card ABS Charges Ahead Despite GDP Decline
The Commerce Department revised GDP down 0.7% last Friday after initial estimate of a 0.2% increase for first quarter-2015 (1Q'15). The contraction marked the weakest reading since 1Q'14 (when the economy shrank 2.1%) and the third decline since the U.S. economy has emerged from recession in 2009. In addition, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on June 1 that consumer spending was stagnant for the month of April. This occurred despite the fact that personal income increased 0.4% from the previous month. Rather than spending, consumers have been putting their income aside into their savings.
Despite the negative trends in consumer sentiment and GDP, the job market seems to be holding steady. While the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of jobless claims for the week of May 23 to 282,000, 8.14% lower than the same period last year. In addition, the four-week average ticked up slightly to 271,500 from 266,500, but is trending about 10,000 less than its average in April 2015. Four-week average jobless claims continue to be strong and are now are at their second lowest value since April 2000.
Fitch's Prime Credit Card 60+ Delinquency Index decreased to 1.02% from 1.04% in May, reaching its second lowest value historically. The index is 1.92% lower month-over-month (MOM) and 11.30% lower year-over-year (YOY). This metric indicates the percentage of balances with borrowers who have missed two or more payments. After increasing for the past two months, Fitch's Prime Credit Card Chargeoff Index bounced back in May, improving to 2.81% from 2.84% the previous month. The index is now 9.65% lower compared to the same period last year and 75% lower than its all-time high reached in September 2009.
Consistent with seasonal trends, gross yield declined for the month of May. After reaching a three year high in April, Fitch's Prime Credit Card Gross Yield Index declined to 18.42% from 19.54%. The index is 5.73% lower MOM. The index has decreased in May every year since its inception in 1991. Despite this decline, Fitch's Prime Three-Month Excess Spread Index improved 2.68% from April, reaching 13.77 for May. The index is now 3.77% higher YOY.
Fitch's Prime Monthly Payment Rate (MPR) Index declined 3.28% MOM to 27.14%. Similar to gross yield, MPR declined in the month of May every year since 1992. The index is 3.47% higher YOY and well above its historical average of 17.59%.
Fitch's Prime Credit Card Index was established in 1991 and tracks over \$148.5 billion of prime credit card ABS backed by approximately \$247.2 billion of principal receivables. The index is primarily comprised of general purpose portfolios originated by institutions such as Bank of America, Citibank, Chase, Capital One, Discover, etc.
Fitch's retail credit card indices registered positive momentum in delinquencies, gross yield and MPR for the month of May, while chargeoffs faired less favorably. Fitch's Retail Credit Card 60+ Delinquency Index declined for the fourth consecutive month to 2.25%. The index is now 6.64% lower MOM and 7.79% lower YOY.
Fitch's Retail Credit Card Gross Yield Index increased slightly to 27.81% for the month of May and is 1.05% higher YOY. During the same period, Fitch's Retail Three-Month Excess Spread Index improved 3.93% MOM to 18.26%. Fitch's Retail Credit Card MPR Index bounced back from a two month decline to 16.12% and is now 4.40% higher than its value last month and 1.32% higher YOY.
Fitch's Retail Credit Card Chargeoff Index increased 57 bps in May to 6.88%. The index is 9.03% higher MOM, and 1.15% lower than the same period one year ago.
Fitch's Retail Credit Card Index was established in 2004 and tracks more than \$19.7 billion of retail or private label credit card ABS backed by over \$29.5 billion of principal receivables. The index is primarily comprised of private label portfolios originated and serviced by Citibank (South Dakota) N.A, Synchrony Financial (Formerly GE Capital Retail Bank), and Comenity Bank (formerly World Financial Network National Bank). More than 165 retailers are incorporated including Walmart, Sears, Home Depot, Federated, Lowes, J.C. Penney, L Brands, Bon Ton, and Dillard's, among others.
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