Fitch Takes Various Actions on GCCFC 2007-GG9
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The downgrades to distressed classes are due to actual realized losses and further certainty about ultimate loss expectations for the pool now that the majority of the real estate owned (REO) loans have been disposed. The upgrades and Rating Outlook revisions reflect better than expected recoveries on many of the assets that were previously in special servicing as well as lease renewals, improved occupancies and clarity as to the ultimate path forward for some large loans in the pool, including the John Hancock Tower (15.7% of the pool) and Stafford Place I (4.3%).
Since the beginning of 2015 a total of 15 assets were disposed with losses of approximately \$252 million. The largest of these assets was the Schron Industrial Portfolio, which had an original principal balance of \$305 million and incurred a 28% loss or \$85 million. The second largest disposition was Pickwick Plaza which had an original balance of \$200 million and was fully recovered less special servicing fees. The third largest asset was the \$140 million Hyatt Regency - Bethesda loan which incurred a loss of 48% or nearly \$67 million.
Fitch modeled losses of 8.4% of the remaining pool; expected losses on the original pool balance total 13.3%, including \$530.7 million (8.1% of the original pool balance) in realized losses to date. Fitch has designated 60 loans (40%) as Fitch Loans of Concern, which includes eight specially serviced assets (7.7%).
As of the May 2015 distribution date, the pool's aggregate principal balance has been reduced by 37.9% to \$4.08 billion from \$6.58 billion at issuance. Per the servicer reporting, eight loans (1.2% of the pool) are defeased. Interest shortfalls are currently affecting classes H through S.
The largest contributor to expected losses is the specially-serviced COPT Office Portfolio (3.2% of the pool). The asset is REO and originally consisted of nine office properties, totaling 618,541 sf, located in Linthicum, MD and five office properties, totaling 400,441 sf, in Colorado Springs, CO. Four of the properties have been sold and the remaining 10 properties are being marketed for sale.
The next largest contributor to expected losses is the TIAA RexCorp Long Island Portfolio loan (5.8%), which is secured by five office properties, totaling 1.2 million sf, located in Nassau and Suffolk counties on Long Island, NY. While occupancy has been fairly stable, rental rates have eroded in the past few years due to weak market conditions. As of YE 2014, occupancy had increased to 91.4%. The YE 2014 NCF DSCR was 1.16x, compared with 1.09x at YE 2013. DSCR has declined due to concessions given on new leases and lower lease rates on some renewals.
The third largest contributor to expected losses is the Plaza America Towers I and II loan (3.4%), which is secured by two office buildings containing 509,430 sf of space located in Reston, VA. The property cash flows have suffered due to the largest tenant vacating the property at lease expiration in 2011. As of YE 2014, the property was 84.2% occupied, an improvement from 71.4% at YE 2013. YE 2014 NCF DSCR also improved to 0.97x compared to 0.84x last year but remains well below 1.42x at YE 2011.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Rating Outlooks on classes A-4 through A-MFX are Stable due to increasing credit enhancement and continued paydown. Further upgrades to classes A-M and A-MFX are possible should dispositions of the remaining specially serviced loans come in at or better than current loss expectations or should positive performance trends of the large Loans of Concern continue. Further downgrades to the distressed classes will occur as losses are realized.
DUE DILIGENCE USAGE
No third party due diligence was provided or reviewed in relation to this rating action.
Fitch downgrades the following classes:
--\$98.6 million class C to 'Csf' from 'CCsf'; RE 0%;
--\$41.1 million class D to 'Csf' from 'CCsf'; RE 0%.
Fitch upgrades the following classes and revises Rating Outlooks as indicated:
--\$557.6 million class A-M to 'BBBsf' from 'BBsf'; Outlook to Stable from Negative;
--\$100 million class A-MFX to 'BBBsf' from 'BBsf'; Outlook to Stable from Negative.
Fitch affirms the following classes and assigns or revises Rating Outlooks and REs as indicated:
--\$2.4 billion class A-4 at 'AAAsf'; Outlook to Stable from Negative;
--\$197.2 million class A-1A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook to Stable from Negative;
--\$575.4 million class A-J at 'CCCsf'; RE to 90% from 30%.
Fitch affirms the following classes:
--\$32.9 million class B at 'CCsf'; RE 0%;
--\$0 class E at 'Dsf'; RE 0%;
--\$0 class F at 'Dsf'; RE 0%;
--\$0 class G at 'Dsf'; RE 0%;
--\$0 class H at 'Dsf'; RE 0%;
--\$0 class J at 'Dsf'; RE 0%;
--\$0 class K at 'Dsf'; RE 0%;
--\$0 class L at 'Dsf'; RE 0%;
--\$0 class M at 'Dsf'; RE 0%;
--\$0 class N at 'Dsf'; RE 0%;
--\$0 class O at 'Dsf'; RE 0%;
--\$0 class P at 'Dsf'; RE 0%;
--\$0 class Q at 'Dsf'; RE 0%.
The class A-1, A-2, A-3 and A-AB certificates have paid in full. Classes E through Q remain at 'Dsf'; RE 0% due to realized losses. Fitch does not rate the class S certificates. Fitch previously withdrew the rating on the interest-only class X certificates.
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