EIA overestimates US oil output: consultant

OREANDA-NEWS. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is overestimating domestic crude production by more than 1mn b/d, according to a report by oil consultant Philip Verleger.

US output in April was likely 1.1mn b/d less than the 9.3mn b/d estimated by the EIA, Verleger said. US output was off by a slightly smaller degree over the past six months because of flaws in the model the EIA uses, Verleger said.

The EIA estimates weekly domestic crude production using a combination of short-term forecasts and the latest available production estimates from Alaska. The use of a forecast of future production as actual data "is an important mistake," Verleger said.

The EIA was not available for comment.

Verleger used a different formula to get what he said is a more accurate assessment of production: the change in crude stocks minus refinery runs plus imports minus exports. Compared to that calculation EIA's production data was an average of 974,000 b/d higher during the six month period of November through April, Verleger said. From February through April it was on average 1.694mn b/d more, he said.

Data that could be used to create a more accurate production figure is available to oil and gas companies, Verleger said, and could be available to the public if the Department of Energy (DOE) demanded it. But Verleger said the DOE has not made such demands.