OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has affirmed France-based clinical laboratory group Labco SA's (Labco) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+' and revised the Outlook to Positive from Stable. Fitch has also affirmed the super senior revolving credit facility (RCF) ratings at 'BB'/'RR2'. The senior secured notes due 2018, rated 'BB-'/'RR3', have been placed on Rating Watch Positive (RWP).

The revision of the Outlook to Positive assumes a successful completion of the initial public offering (IPO) as announced by Labco whereby it expects to raise around EUR300m of net proceeds from the sale of new shares. The planned partial debt prepayment from IPO proceeds will help rebuild the financial headroom under the current 'B+' Long-term IDR. In addition, access to equity capital markets diversifies Labco's funding sources and provides the group with enhanced financial flexibility to address future M&A opportunities. At present, we forecast Labco's credit metrics (pro forma for assumed acquisitions) will improve to levels commensurate with a higher rating within the next 12-24 months; hence the Positive Outlook. The profile, scale, financing mix and embedded integration risk of such bolt-on acquisitions will be critical factors to resolve the Positive Outlook.

KEY RATING DRIVERS
Increased Rating Headroom
The planned debt reduction of about EUR270m provides Labco with additional immediate headroom under the current 'B+' rating. We estimate that funds from operations (FFO) adjusted gross leverage will reduce to around 5.5x from above 7.0x as at FYE14 (pro forma for acquisitions), whilst lower cash interest payments accelerated by a planned refinancing of the outstanding debt at a lower cost would lead the FFO fixed charge to exceed 2.0x. We would expect lower cash interest to boost the free cash flow (FCF) margin towards the mid-single digits in 2017 despite a combination of sustained capex and dividend payments from 2017, consistent with a 20% pay-out ratio as announced by the company.

In a low organic growth environment, further improvement in credit metrics will depend on Labco's ability to successfully integrate any future bolt-on acquisitions (under its new capital structure) and finance them mainly from internal cash or equity rather than debt.

Improved Recoveries for Noteholders
We expect recovery prospects for the remaining senior secured notes would improve following the proposed debt redemption, as Labco intends to use a large portion of these proceeds to partially redeem a EUR270m principal amount of senior secured notes due 2018. Post-IPO, we expect recoveries on the senior secured notes to increase within the 'RR2' range of 71% to 90%, as opposed to the 'RR3' range (51% to 70%) before the IPO. This suggests a maximum one notch upside on the rating for the senior secured notes post-IPO. Fitch continues to apply a distressed EV/EBITDA multiple of 6x when assigning bespoke recoveries to Labco's senior secured notes.

Leading Clinical Laboratory Services Group
Overall, we believe that Labco's business risk profile is fully consistent with the 'BB' rating category. Labco is the largest clinical laboratory services company in France for routine tests and in Iberia for routine and specialty testing. It is also a pan-European player thanks to its additional presence in Belgium, Italy and the UK, and to a lesser extent Switzerland. In our view, Labco's earnings profile benefits from this geographical diversity, as it reduces the group's exposure to single healthcare systems.

Organic Performance to Remain Subdued
Laboratory testing markets are underpinned by broadly favourable demographics and socio- economic factors that support organic volume growth. However, sustained price pressures by the ultimate payers such as governments and insurance companies are likely to constrain organic growth prospects in the medium term. In this environment, we expect large European players such as Labco to withstand the negative impact of tariff pressure on their profitability margins through economies of scale and operational efficiencies generated within regional and technical platforms.

Sustained Bolt-on M&A Strategy
Fitch expects Labco to continue with its strategy of small to mid-sized bolt-on acquisitions within the European laboratory testing markets. The availability under the RCF (about EUR120m) will provide financial resources for such acquisitions in the near term, pending a planned refinancing of the outstanding debt. Fitch expects these acquisitions will be accretive to EBITDA and funds from operations (FFO) and carry low integration risk. Our projections show that Labco's FFO adjusted leverage would remain comfortably within the 5x-5.5x range within the rating horizon. Mild deleveraging prospects along with the expected benefits from an enlarged group would be consistent with a higher rating if Labco maintains an adequate financial discipline. Any large, transformational M&A would be considered as an event risk.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS
-- Low to mid-single digit organic growth in key markets;
-- Sustained EBITDA margin around 19% (including UK operations);
-- EUR270m of net IPO proceeds applied to debt reduction;
-- Outstanding EUR430m 8.5% senior secured notes due 2018 refinanced at a lower cost;
-- EUR275m of bolt-on acquisitions over 2015-2017 partly funded by debt;


RATING SENSITIVITIES
Positive: Developments that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating actions over the medium term include:
-- Evidence of Labco conducting a low-risk M&A strategy that is accretive to EBITDA and primarily financed by internal cash flow or equity leading to an FFO adjusted gross leverage sustainably below 5.5x and FFO fixed charge cover trending towards 2.5x (pro forma for acquisitions).
-- Continued industry-leading profitability with sustained mid-single digit FCF as a percentage of revenue;

The RWP on the notes will be resolved upon completion of the IPO and application of the proceeds to debt reduction as per Labco's announced plans.

Negative: If the IPO fails, the ratings could come under pressure in the medium term, as financial headroom pre-IPO is low. Developments that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating actions, including a revision of the Outlook to Stable are:
-- FFO adjusted gross leverage remaining above 6.5x and FFO fixed charge cover below 1.5x on a sustained basis (pro forma for acquisitions).
-- Reduction in FCF margin to slightly positive territory, while maintaining a debt-funded acquisition strategy;
-- Labco's continued ability to source, execute and extract additional cost savings from acquiring laboratories at attractive EBITDA multiples is a key factor underpinning the ratings. Large, debt-funded and margin-dilutive acquisitions could also cause downward rating pressure.