Fitch: Sovereigns Drive Bank Rating Changes in 1Q15
Other rating actions were scattered over a broad number of countries. Multi-notch downgrades were limited to two Italian banks, Banca Mediocredito del Friuli Venezia Giulia S.p.A and Mediocredito Trentino-Alto Adige S.p.A., following revision of support considerations, and to Banca Privada d'Andorra where money laundering concerns by the US authorities resulted in account restrictions.
Fitch's review of sovereign support for banks in developed markets, mainly the EU, is nearing completion. Our view is that sovereign support for banks is becoming more uncertain and the Long-term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) of around 55 banks have been on Negative Outlook for over one year as a result. Fitch expects to downgrade these banks' Long-Term IDRs, mostly to the level of their respective Viability Ratings, in 2Q15.
Around 70% of bank ratings globally are on Stable Outlook, with no material differences between developed and emerging markets. The Outlook distribution saw little change in 1Q15, although that hides underlying changes, with 14 IDRs' Outlooks revised to Stable from Negative, and 16 Outlooks revised to Negative from Stable. Again, sovereign rating actions and/or deteriorating operating environment were the key drivers for the Negative revisions.
A full review of global bank rating actions taken by Fitch in 1Q15 is available by clicking on the link above.
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