Fitch Affirms Southern Company and Subsidiaries' Ratings
KEY RATING DRIVERS FOR SOUTHERN COMPANY
Conservative Business Model: Southern Company's ratings recognize the relatively stable and predictable cash generation of its operating subsidiaries and the financial support it gets from them in the form of dividends for the payment of corporate expenses, debt service, dividends to common stockholders, and for other business matters. Southern Company's regulated utility subsidiaries enjoy a relatively favorable regulatory framework in their service territories and exhibit limited commodity price risks due to the ability to recover fuel and purchased power through separate cost trackers. Its non-regulated generation subsidiary, Southern Power follows a conservative business model by signing long-term sale contracts with creditworthy counterparties and has minimal commodity exposure via recovery of fuel costs through its power sales contracts. Southern Company provides equity funding to its subsidiaries for their long-term growth and to optimize their capital mix within a target range. The Stable Outlook reflects adequate liquidity, financial flexibility, and easy access to capital markets during a period of high capital investment.
Favorable Rate Outcomes: At present, regulatory risk is subdued for Southern Company's utility subsidiaries, except Mississippi Power, given the recent rate resolutions at Georgia Power, Alabama Power and Gulf Power. Georgia Power's rate case outcome in December 2013, while modestly below Fitch's expectations, provides for a three-year rate certainty and reflects an authorized return on equity (ROE) of 10.95% that is above industry average. Alabama Power received a favorable outcome from the Alabama Public Service Commission (PSC) regarding review of its Rate Stabilization and Equalization (RSE) mechanism in August 2013. Gulf Power received a constructive outcome in its 2013 rate case that authorized a continuation of its retail ROE midpoint of 10.25% with a range of +/- 100 basis points (bps).
Execution Risk of Two Large Construction Projects: Fitch's rating concerns for Southern Company include significant construction and regulatory risks associated with the two large baseload projects under construction, namely the 2,200 MW Vogtle nuclear units 3 and 4 in which Georgia Power owns a 45.7% stake, and the 580 MW Kemper IGCC plant being built by Mississippi Power. The Vogtle nuclear units have been recovering the financing costs on construction work in progress (CWIP) through a tracker since 2011. To date, the PSC has approved \$2.6 billion in costs incurred on Vogtle units 3 and 4; these units are projected to be in-service by 4Q'17 and 4Q'18, respectively. Fitch expects that any adjustments to the overall project costs will be deemed recoverable by the Georgia PSC. Significant project cost overruns that cannot be recovered in rates or unexpected long deferral periods for project cost recovery would be adverse credit factors.
The Kemper IGCC project has faced significant overruns relative to its original project costs estimate. The project is now expected to cost \$5.6 billion, of which \$1.1 billion is subject to exemptions and exceptions from the regulatory cost cap. Of the remaining \$4.4 billion, Mississippi Power does not intend to seek rate recovery for \$1.56 billion of costs incurred above the \$2.88 billion cost cap and has taken an equivalent charge to income through its 2Q'14 financial results. Southern Company has committed to inject equity in Mississippi Power to restore its capital structure and has financed its equity infusion into Mississippi Power through equity issuance. The funding of Kemper cost overruns primarily by equity is a key factor that underpins Southern Company's IDR of 'A' and Stable Outlook. It is Fitch's expectation that any future cost overruns at Kemper will be similarly funded largely through equity such that the consolidated equity in the capital structure remains closely aligned with the target of 44%.
High Environment Capex: Southern Company's consolidated environmental compliance expenditures remain significant over Fitch's forecast period; the company is planning to spend approximately \$3.2 billion over 2014 - 2016. All of Southern Company's regulated subsidiaries, with the exception of Georgia Power, have environmental trackers. Georgia Power has typically recovered environmental compliance-related costs through base rate case decisions.
Credit Metrics: For the last 12 months (LTM) ending June 30, 2014, the funds flow from operations (FFO) adjusted leverage stood at 3.5x, which includes the benefit of bonus depreciation. Fitch expects Southern Company's FFO adjusted leverage to weaken to approximately 4x by 2016, reflecting the phase out of bonus depreciation subsidies. Fitch forecasts Southern Company's FFO coverage ratios to remain strong at over 5x through 2016. Incorporated in the ratings is Fitch's expectation that Southern Company's financial measures will remain weak through the large capex cycle at Georgia Power, its largest subsidiary.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Positive: An upgrade is not likely in the next 12 - 18 months given the project execution risks associated with the Kemper and Vogtle projects and the resultant pressure on credit metrics until these projects achieve completion.
Negative: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to a negative rating action include:
--Significant time/cost overrun at the Vogtle and/or Kemper projects that are primarily debt financed and negative regulatory actions on the recovery of those costs.
--Weather-adjusted retail sales have increased 1.1% year-to-date as compared to the same period last year. Residential and commercial sales have continued to exhibit weakness while industrial sales are beginning to firm up. Materially lower than expected sales across Southern Company's utility subsidiaries that puts pressure on consolidated credit metrics such that FFO adjusted leverage weakens to 4.25x or higher for a sustained basis can lead to negative action on ratings.
KEY RATING DRIVERS FOR ALABAMA POWER
Strong Regulatory Mechanisms: The ratings and Stable Outlook for Alabama Power reflect Fitch's view that the utility will continue to generate strong credit metrics over the next three years driven by a gradual improvement in industrial sales and potential rate increases under the RSE mechanism and environmental cost recovery clauses. Alabama Power enjoys a constructive regulatory environment and has consistently earned more than 13% ROE over the last five years. Cost-of-service recovery mechanisms provide timely recovery of all prudent costs through various rates/cost trackers, such as those incurred for fuel, purchased power, storm costs, environmental expenditures and new generation facilities.
Constructive Resolution to ROE Scrutiny: Alabama Power received a favorable outcome from the Alabama PSC in 2013 regarding review of its RSE mechanism. The PSC voted to replace the prior ROE range of 13% - 14.5% and allowed equity ratio of 45% with a weighted cost of equity (WCE) provision. The WCE range was established by the PSC at 5.75% - 6.21% with an adjusting point of 5.98%, which is modestly lower than the implied WCE range under prior rates of 5.85% - 6.53% with an adjusting point of 6.19%. In addition, Alabama Power will be eligible for a performance-based adder of 0.07% if it is rated 'A' by at least one of the major credit rating agencies or is in the top one-third in customer satisfaction survey. The resolution of the RSE review was in line with Fitch's expectation and removed a key source of regulatory uncertainty for Alabama Power.
High Reliance on Industrial Sales: Rating concerns for Alabama Power include a high reliance on the industrial sector, which comprises approximately 38% of its total MWH sales. The dominant industrial customers in its service territory comprise primary metals, chemicals, pulp and paper, and transportation. Fitch sees enough room in the credit metrics to absorb a prolonged period of economic slowdown in Alabama Power's service territory; this was demonstrated during the stressed economic conditions of the year 2009. Year-to-date, industrial MWH sales have increased 3.1% compared to the corresponding period of last year. In contrast, residential and commercial sales have been weak due to decreased customer usage. Weather-adjusted residential and commercial MWH sales declined 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively, in the first half of 2014 compared with the first half of 2013.
High Proportion of Coal in Fuel Mix: Alabama Power's large coal mix (approximately 55% of total generation) leaves the utility exposed to potential higher environmental expenditures. While Alabama Power has an environmental clause that allows for recovery of all prudent and mandated expenditures, the retail electricity rates would rise, reducing the flexibility for Alabama Power to increase the base rates to earn an attractive ROE.
Credit Metrics: On a LTM basis, Alabama Power's FFO adjusted leverage was a robust 3.1x. Fitch expects this metric to average 3.5x over 2014-16 as the benefits of bonus depreciation subside. LTM Debt to EBITDAR was 2.8x and Fitch expects this metric to be approximately 3x over the next three years. FFO fixed charged cover is expected to average 6x.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Positive: An upgrade is not likely in the next 12 - 18 months given the high concentration of coal in the fuel mix. While Alabama Power has a tracker to recover environmental compliance expenditures, rate increases being borne by customers could limit the utility's flexibility to seek other rate increases.
Negative: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to a negative rating action include:
--A sharp and prolonged industrial slowdown in Alabama Power's service territory that depresses margins as well as curtails its flexibility to continue to earn attractive ROE.
--A material degradation of FFO adjusted leverage to 4x or higher
KEY RATING DRIVERS FOR GEORGIA POWER
Constructive Regulation: Georgia Power's ratings are supported by the solid financial profile of the integrated utility, which benefits from constructive regulation in Georgia that limits regulatory lag. The Vogtle 3 & 4 nuclear units under construction have been recovering CWIP financing costs through a tracker since 2011. Georgia Power's rate case outcome in December 2013 provides for a three-year rate certainty and authorizes rate increases based upon 10.95% ROE.
Project Execution Risk: The Vogtle units under construction are running behind the originally PSC approved schedule and have seen an escalation in capital costs. Since the construction began, Georgia Power has requested the PSC to increase the estimated in-service capital cost by \$381 million to \$4.8 billion and to extend the estimated in-service dates to 4Q'17 and 4Q'18 for Vogtle units 3 and 4, respectively. These cost and schedule changes are primarily associated with the changes to the Design Control Document (DCD), delays in receiving approval of the DCD, and issuance of a combined construction and operating license by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Georgia Power and the other owners of the Vogtle 3 and 4 units are engaged in litigation with the contractors over these increased construction costs.
The PSC stipulation that requires Georgia Power not to request any further revision in the costs or the schedule of the Vogtle units till the first unit attains substantial completion induces regulatory uncertainty if costs escalate significantly. Fitch expects that any adjustments to the overall project costs will be deemed recoverable by the PSC. Significant project cost overruns that cannot be recovered in rates or unexpected long deferral periods for project cost recovery would be adverse credit factors. To date, the PSC has reviewed 10 Vogtle Construction Monitoring (VCM) reports filed by Georgia Power and approved \$2.6 billion in costs incurred through Dec. 31, 2013.
Georgia Power recently submitted its 11th VCM report to the PSC that seeks approval of \$198 million of construction expenditures incurred from Jan. 1, 2014 through June 30, 2014. The total construction and capital cost forecast remained unchanged since the prior reporting period. The current integrated project schedule from the EPC contractor runs through activities till the end of 2015. The company is working with the contractor to establish a comprehensive schedule of activities beyond 2015 to address concerns around project schedule raised by the PSC appointed independent construction monitor during his testimony for the combined 9th and 10th VCM proceeding. The EPC contract is close to 100% fixed or firm, nevertheless the utility is exposed to higher owner oversight and financing costs that would need to be recovered from ratepayers.
High Environment Capex: Georgia Power's annual capex is forecast to be in the \$2 billion - \$2.6 billion range over 2014 - 2016, or approximately 3x depreciation. This is high relative to peer utilities and is primarily driven by Georgia Power's share of Vogtle costs. In addition, Georgia Power anticipates spending approximately \$1.1 billion in environmental capex over 2014 -2016 mostly for compliance with the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) rule. While Georgia regulations do not allow for automatic recovery of environmental costs, Georgia Power has historically been granted adequate rate relief on its environmental capex.
Credit Metrics to Weaken: Fitch anticipates a modest decline in Georgia Power's credit metrics until 2016 reflecting the pressure from a large construction program. Fitch forecasts Georgia Power's adjusted debt to EBITDAR and FFO adjusted leverage to be approximately 3.4x and 4x, respectively, in 2016. The sales growth at Georgia Power has lagged expectations due to weakness in commercial electric demand. Year-to-date weather-adjusted residential and commercial MWH sales have increased 1.4% and 0.2%, respectively. Industrial MWH sales have increased 1.3% during the same period due to increased demand in primary metals, non-manufacturing, textiles and chemicals sector. Weaker than expected sales could put additional pressure on credit metrics.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Positive: Positive rating actions seem unlikely in the next 12 - 18 months given the ongoing construction of the Vogtle nuclear units and the associated risks of material costs and schedule overruns. Georgia Power's credit metrics could likely weaken through this long construction cycle.
Negative: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to a negative rating action include:
--Significant cost overruns or delays in the Vogtle project as compared to the current certified amount.
--Project cost overruns that cannot be recovered in rates or unexpected long deferral periods for cost recovery.
-- While currently not anticipated, any adverse change in Georgia Power's relations with the Georgia PSC.
KEY RATING DRIVERS FOR GULF POWER
Favorable Outcome in Rate Case: In its last rate filing, the Florida PSC approved base rate increase of \$35 million annually effective January 2014 and an additional \$20 million in annual revenues effective January 2015 based on authorized ROE of 10.25%. Gulf Power has the ability to record credits to depreciation expense with an offset to a regulatory asset in amounts up to \$62.5 million between January 2014 and June 2017; in any given month the credit may not exceed the amount necessary for the jurisdictional ROE to reach the authorized midpoint. Also, Gulf Power may not request a base rate increase to be effective until after June 2017 unless the retail ROE falls below the authorized ROE range and the \$62.5 million credit is exhausted.
Constructive Regulation: The utility enjoys several rate riders that provide timely recovery of all prudent costs related to fuel, purchased power costs and environmental expenditures. While Gulf Power is dependent on coal fired generation capacity that must comply with stringent emissions standards, the fuel and environmental recovery clauses promote timely recovery of associated costs.
Improvement in Retail Sales: Gulf Power's service territory continues to see slow but steady improvement in the local economy with economic indicators such as housing starts, unemployment and income growth, all showing positive trends. The number of customers served continues to grow; however, customer usage trends have been unpredictable. In the first half of 2014, weather adjusted residential and commercial MWH sales fell by 0.8% and 1.1%, respectively, over the corresponding period in 2013 primarily due to drop in customer usage. Industrial sales increased 14% primarily due to decreased customer co-generation.
Credit Metrics: Fitch forecasts Gulf Power's adjusted debt to EBITDAR and FFO adjusted leverage to be approximately 3.4x and 3.6x, respectively, in 2016, which is in line with its rating category.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Positive: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to a positive rating action include:
-- Sustained FFO adjusted leverage lower than 3x.
Negative: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to a negative rating action include:
--Unexpected negative regulatory developments in Florida.
--Continued weakness in customer usage and a reversal of customer growth trends that results in significantly lower than expected sales.
--Sustained FFO adjusted leverage weaker than 4x.
KEY RATING DRIVERS FOR MISSISSIPPI POWER
Significant Cost Overrun at Kemper: The key near-term uncertainty at Mississippi Power remains the execution risk associated with the construction of the Kemper IGCC project. Specifically, Fitch is concerned with the escalation in capital costs of the project, the possibility of a further delay in the in-service date for the gasification system, and any potential disallowance of Kemper construction costs in the prudency reviews to be conducted by the Mississippi PSC. The project spend is approximately 90% complete with \$3.81 billion of capped plant costs incurred through the end of June 2014.
Start-up Risks with Kemper: Significant risks that remain with Kemper are associated with the gasifier start-up and its integration with the combined cycle turbines. Mississippi Power placed the combined cycle portion of Kemper along with the associated facilities in service recently. Issues with start-up activities could delay the schedule beyond the current expected in-service date of 2Q'15. A delay exposes the utility to additional costs of approximately \$20 million per month or higher and potentially greater regulatory risk.
Regulatory Uncertainty Remains: The primary regulatory risk for Mississippi Power pertains to ongoing discussions with the Mississippi PSC staff and intervenors to arrive at a global settlement that could address both the changes in the seven-year rate plan and prudency review of Kemper project costs. The 2013 Mississippi PSC rate order provided for a retail rate increase of 15% effective March 2013 and 3% effective January 2014 or \$156 million cumulative rate increase. However, the delay in the in-service date for the gasifier necessitates a change in the seven-year plan to reflect the resultant loss of bonus depreciation, recapture of the Phase I tax credits of \$133 million, and other tax matters. On the positive side, the recent settlement with Sierra Club, as a consequence of which Sierra Club agreed to drop all pending regulatory and legal challenges against Kemper, alleviates the legal and regulatory overhang to a certain extent.
Equity Injection by Parent: Southern is planning to inject equity into Mississippi Power as necessary to maintain the utility's 50/50 capital structure, which is a key factor for Fitch to maintain Mississippi Power's IDR at 'A-'. Management has committed that the parent will continue to underwrite any potential cost overruns that cannot be recoverable from customers by Mississippi Power. Hence, the risk of future cost overruns insulates the utility to a large extent.
Slow Growth in Sales: Electricity sales to residential and commercial customers continue to grow at a tepid pace. For the first six months of 2014, weather-adjusted MWH sales to residential customers declined 0.7% over the corresponding period of 2013; sales to commercial customers increased 0.3% over the same time period. Industrial sales continue to show solid growth driven by industrial expansions and increased usage by large customers. MWH sales to industrial customers grew by 3.6% for the first half of 2014 as compared to the same period last year. Wholesale service area is showing a stronger growth than retail residential and commercial segments.
Stress on Credit Metrics: The delay in recovery of financing costs has already put significant stress on Mississippi Power's credit metrics. For the LTM ending June 30, 2014, FFO adjusted leverage ratio increased to 4.6x and adjusted debt to operating EBITDAR increased to 9x. Fitch's financial analysis indicates that if the project becomes operational within the currently projected capital costs and schedule, and based on the assumption that the Mississippi PSC approves the utility's modifications to the seven-year plan as proposed, Mississippi Power's credit metrics are expected to revert to Fitch's guideline ratios of a low-risk 'A-' rated utility company by 2016. Fitch expects FFO adjusted leverage to be 3.5x and adjusted debt to operating EBITDAR to be 3.6x by 2016.
Negative Outlook: The Negative Outlook reflects still elevated regulatory risks for the company in addition to the ongoing construction and operational risks associated with the Kemper project. The key near-term uncertainty at Mississippi Power remains the project completion risk, the pending changes to the seven-year rate plan, and the outcome of the prudency reviews to be conducted by the Mississippi PSC. Fitch expects the Negative Outlook to remain until there is sufficient clarity regarding the final capital costs and time to completion for the Kemper project as well as successful operational performance of the plant within the parameters established by the Mississippi PSC.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Positive: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to a Stable Rating Outlook include:
--Completion of the gasification portion of the Kemper project by 2Q'15. The successful operational performance of the plant within the parameters established by the Mississippi PSC is also key to maintaining rating stability at Mississippi Power.
--Constructive global settlement with the regulators that does not result in material reduction in retail rates as compared to the seven-year rate plan currently in place.
--Constructive outcome in the prudency review of the Kemper costs, which will be undertaken after the project has been placed in service and been operational for a reasonable period of time.
Negative: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to a negative rating action include:
--Adverse outcome in the pending global settlement regarding retail rates and prudency review.
--Any material cost overrun beyond the latest project cost estimate of \$5.56 billion, if not funded by the parent.
--Unfavorable changes in regulatory policies for timely recovery of utility capital investments, fuel and purchased power costs, and storm-related costs.
KEY RATING DRIVERS FOR SOUTHERN POWER
Conservative Contracting Strategy: Southern Power's ratings reflect its conservative strategy of selling power primarily under long-term power sales agreements with investment-grade counterparties. As of Dec. 31, 2013, the company had contracted an average of 79% of its capacity for the next five years and 70% of its capacity over the next 10 years. The company is generally able to pass through fuel costs to its customers under power sales contracts, although it retains margin exposure to the operating efficiency of its plants. This results in a high visibility of cash flows and consistent credit metrics over time.
Favorable Fuel Mix: The company is well-positioned relative to other power generators in the face of more stringent environmental regulations that affect coal- and oil-fired generation, as its fleet consists mainly of modern gas-fired power plants. Fitch expects Southern Power's generation fleet to benefit from potential retirement of old and inefficient coal capacity in its region. Southern Power has also been expanding its solar portfolio. After the most recent acquisitions, which includes the 20MW solar PV facility in California and 50MW solar PV facility in New Mexico, Southern Power's solar PV portfolio has expanded to 262 MW. The entire output from these facilities has been contracted under long-term power purchase agreements with the local regulated utilities.
New Growth Opportunities: Southern Power continues to scout for new investments opportunities that include utility scale solar and natural gas-fired plants. Fitch expects Southern Power to finance new projects and/ or acquisitions with 50%-55% debt structure.
Strong Credit Metrics: Fitch expects Southern Power's credit metrics to remain strong through its forecast period. Fitch expects debt-to-EBITDAR and FFO adjusted leverage metrics to be approximately 3x and 3.6x, respectively, in 2016, both strong relative to Southern Power's rating level.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Positive: An upgrade of Southern Power is not likely in the next 12 - 18 months since Fitch typically caps the IDR of a non-regulated power generation company at 'BBB+'.
Negative: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to a negative rating action include:
--Significant drop in power demand led by protracted weakness in economic growth, which could negatively affect recontracting of power generation output once existing contracts mature.
--Aggressive investment or financial strategy such as buying or building merchant generation assets without long-term power purchase agreements or taking on major construction or completion risks on unconventional technologies. An aggressive financial strategy, such as debt-funded acquisitions or new development, could also lead to downward rating actions.
KEY RATINGS DRIVERS FOR SOUTHERN ELECTRIC GENERATING COMPANY
The ratings of SEGCO are supported by joint ownership by Georgia Power and Alabama Power. SEGCO's debt is fully and unconditionally guaranteed by Alabama Power, which, in turn, has an indemnification from Georgia Power to cover 50% of SEGCO's debt repayment in case of a default by SEGCO.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Positive: Given that an upgrade is not likely in the next 12-18 months for Alabama Power, there are no expectations for positive rating actions for SEGCO at this time.
Negative: Future deterioration in the credit quality of Alabama Power or Georgia Power could have negative rating implications for SEGCO.
Fitch affirms the following ratings with a Stable Outlook:
Southern Company
--Long-term IDR at 'A';
--Short-term IDR at 'F1';
--Commercial paper at 'F1';
--Senior unsecured notes at 'A'.
Southern Company Funding Corp.
--Short-term IDR at 'F1';
--Commercial paper at 'F1'.
Alabama Power Company
--Long-term IDR at 'A';
--Short-term IDR at 'F1';
--Commercial paper at 'F1';
--Senior unsecured notes at 'A+';
--Pollution control revenue bonds at 'A+' and 'F1';
--Preferred securities at 'A-'.
Alabama Power Company Capital Trust V
--Trust preferred stock at 'A-'.
Georgia Power Company
--Long-term IDR at 'A';
--Short-term IDR at 'F1';
--Commercial paper at 'F1';
--Senior unsecured notes at 'A+/F1';
--Pollution control revenue bonds at 'A+' and 'F1';
--Preferred securities at 'A-'.
Gulf Power Company
--Long-term IDR at 'A-';
--Short-term IDR at 'F1';
--Commercial paper at 'F1';
--Senior unsecured notes at 'A';
--Pollution control revenue bonds at 'A' and 'F1';
--Preferred securities at 'BBB+'.
Southern Power Company
--Long-term IDR at 'BBB+';
--Short-term IDR at 'F2';
--Senior unsecured debt at 'BBB+'.
Southern Electric Generating Company
--Long-term IDR at 'A';
--Senior unsecured debt at 'A+'.
Fitch affirms the following ratings with a Negative Outlook:
Mississippi Power Company
--Long-term IDR at 'A-';
--Short-term IDR at 'F1';
--Commercial paper at 'F1';
--Senior unsecured notes at 'A';
--Pollution control revenue bonds at 'A' and 'F1';
--Preferred securities at 'BBB+'.
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