PhosAgro FY 2014 EBITDA up 57% to RUB 37.6 bln

OREANDA-NEWS. PhosAgro ("PhosAgro" or "the Company") (Moscow Exchange, LSE: PHOR), one of the world’s leading vertically integrated phosphate-based fertilizer producers, today announces its audited consolidated IFRS financial results for the 12 months ended 31 December 2014. PhosAgro’s revenue for the period increased 18% to RUB 123.1 billion, while EBITDA grew by 57% to RUB 37.6 billion (USD 979 million), compared to RUB 23.9 billion (USD 752 million) in 2013.

2014 Financial and operational highlights:

Result	2014		2013		year-on-year change (RUB vs. RUB), %
	RUB	USD	RUB	USD
	million		million
Revenue	123,124	3,205	104,566	3,283	18%
EBITDA*	37,609	979	23,934	752	57%
EBITDA margin	31%		23%
Net (loss)/profit	(13,395)	(349)	8,576	269	-
Adjusted net profit**	18,114	471	9,659	303	88%
(Loss)/earnings per share	(105)	(3)	60	2	-
Sales volumes
Phosphate-based products	4,836.5		4,793.8		1%
Nitrogen-based fertilizers	1,384.5		1,262.2		10%
Apatit mine and beneficiation plant	3,328.8		3,912.0		(15%)
Other products	220.6		191.3		15%

RUB/USD rates: average 2014: 38.4217; average 2013: 31.8480
as of 31 December 2014: 56.2584; as of 31 December 2013: 32.7292
*EBITDA is calculated as operating profit adjusted for depreciation and amortisation.
**Adjusted net profit is calculated as net profit adjusted for unrealised foreign exchange loss.

Other highlights

Annual dividend recommendation:

· At its meeting on 28 April 2015, PhosAgro’s Board of Directors recommended that shareholders approve a final dividend of RUB 1,943 million for 2014, which represents RUB 15 per share (RUB 5.0 per global depositary receipt). Shareholders will vote on the dividend recommendation at the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders on 8 June 2015.

Production, sales and logistics flexibility:

• During 2014, PhosAgro’s revenue and sales volumes benefited from the Company’s strategy of enhancing production flexibility, combined with strong global demand: total fertilizer production and sales volumes grew year-on-year by 4% and 3%, respectively. Revenue in 2014 was 18% higher year-on-year, supported by year-on-year increases of over 27% and 17% in average realised prices for export DAP/MAP and NPK, respectively.

Strategic developments:

• In January 2014, the Group signed a USD 440.6 million loan agreement with the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) and a group of banks consisting of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi (BTMU), Citibank Japan and Mizuho Bank. The proceeds from the loan are being used to fund construction of a new 760 ths tonnes/year ammonia plant at PhosAgro-Cherepovets.
• In line with its strategy to develop downstream production capacity and expand its product portfolio, in August 2014 PhosAgro signed a contract with Chemoproject Nitrogen a.s. for design engineering and procurement of equipment for the construction of a 500 ths tonnes/year granulated urea production unit at PhosAgro-Cherepovets. Total investments in the construction of the new urea unit and production infrastructure are estimated at RUB 11 billion (based on current RUB/EUR exchange rates).

Consolidation of ownership in production facilities and business development:

• PhosAgro completed its strategic goal of consolidating 100% ownership in all key production subsidiaries after successfully executing a compulsory share purchase offer and a subsequent squeeze out for shareholders of PhosAgro-Cherepovets, which was completed in October.

An improved pricing environment combined with significant Rouble depreciation, especially in 4Q 2014, supported revenue growth of 18% year-on-year to RUB 123.1 billion (USD 3,205 million), compared to RUB 104.6 billion (USD 3,283 million) for 2013. Operating profit for the period was RUB 29.6 billion (USD 770 million), up 83% from RUB 16.1 billion (USD 507 million) in 2013. EBITDA was RUB 37.6 billion (USD 979 million) in 2014, 57% higher year-on-year. EBITDA margin increased to 31% for 2014, compared to 23% in 2013.

The significant Rouble depreciation resulted in an unrealised foreign exchange loss of RUB 31,509 million (USD 820 million) and a loss from operations with derivative financial instruments of RUB 7,338 million (USD 191 million). These two factors caused the company to report a net loss for 2014. The 2014 net loss amounted to RUB 13.4 billion (USD 349 million), compared to a net profit of RUB 8.6 billion (USD 269 million) in 2013. Basic and diluted loss per share came to RUB 105 (USD 2.73) for 2014, compared to earnings of RUB 60 (USD 1.88) in 2013. Adjusted for the unrealised foreign exchange loss, 2014 net profit was RUB 18,114 million, up by 88% from an adjusted net profit of RUB 9,659 million for 2013.

Cash flow from operating activities remained very robust, increasing by 53% year-on-year to RUB 27.5 billion (USD 716 million) in 2014, compared to RUB 17.9 billion (USD 563 million) in 2013.

Gross debt at 31 December 2014 amounted to RUB 123.8 billion (USD 2,201 million), compared to RUB 52.8 billion (USD 1,612 million) at 31 December 2013. Net debt at 31 December 2014 stood at RUB 93.1 billion (USD 1,656 million), up from RUB 43.8 billion (USD 1,339 million) at 31 December 2013. Most of the Company’s debt is denominated in USD as a natural hedge against primarily USD-denominated sales. The depreciation of the Russian Rouble against the US Dollar was the primary reason for the increase of PhosAgro’s net debt in RUB terms. The Company’s net debt to EBITDA ratio increased to 2.48 as of 31 December 2014, from 1.83 as of 31 December 2013.

Commenting on 2014 results, PhosAgro Management Board Chairman and CEO Andrey Guryev said:

“We had a good year in terms of phosphate industry supply-demand fundamentals, which remain tight. We benefitted on the revenue side from a healthy USD 30, or 7%, increase in average DAP prices (FOB Tampa) from USD 442 in 2013 to USD 472 in 2014. At the same time, we continued implementing cost-cutting initiatives throughout the year with programmes to improve staff efficiency and to optimise our mining and logistics operations. As a result, our margins have improved to what we consider to be sustainable levels, with gross profit margin close to 44% and a solid EBITDA margin of 31%.

“At the same time Ukraine-related factors, combined with a significant decline in oil prices, led to a sharp and unexpected devaluation of the rouble, especially in the fourth quarter of 2014. While our financial position remains strong, this had a negative impact on our balance sheet and led to a temporary weakening of our debt ratios as of 31 December 2014. The rouble devaluation also resulted in a significant unrealised FX loss in Q4 2014 due to the revaluation of our USD-denominated debt, creating a net loss for the full year despite very strong performance at all other levels.

“On the flip side, the situation has significantly improved already in the first three months of 2015. The weak rouble, combined with our cost-cutting initiatives, has substantially improved PhosAgro’s global cost position, and I am very optimistic about the results we will report for 1Q 2015. We are carefully monitoring all our financial policies, and as of the end of March our position was significantly better than the snapshot on 31 December 2014, which will enable us to improve returns for shareholders.

“With respect to phosphate industry fundamentals, we expect another good year in terms of demand, while supply will remain balanced. In 1Q 2015 we saw average DAP prices (FOB Tampa) improve by USD 24 from USD 459 in 4Q 2014.

“Longer-term I am happy to report that 2014 was a very important year for us in terms of our strategic development: we have completed our three-year effort to consolidate 100% ownership in all of our main production subsidiaries, and we unveiled our 2020 Strategy. Combined with improved current returns, implementation of this strategy will provide significant growth opportunities already in 2017, which should benefit our investors and other stakeholders.”

2014 Market Conditions

• The average price for DAP in 2014 was USD 472/tonne FOB Tampa, and the average price for MAP was USD 469/tonne FOB Baltics/Black Sea. This compares favourably to average prices of USD 442 and USD 453, respectively, in 2013.
• 2014 was marked by supply constraints from the very beginning: Morocco, the United States, Saudi Arabia and Russia decreased spot supplies of DAP/MAP by 600-700 ths tonnes in 1Q 2014. Combined with early demand from Latin America and Europe following very weak volumes in 4Q 2013, this led to a sharp recovery in DAP/MAP prices in January 2014, followed by a further seasonal recovery up to USD 500 per tonne (FOB Tampa) in February-March 2014.
• Prices softened back to USD 450-460 per tonne FOB Tampa in April-May as a result of the increased supply of lower-grade phosphate-based fertilizers from China and softer-than-expected demand from India.
• Seasonal demand in Brazil, in conjunction with summer purchases in the US market, contributed to higher prices for DAP/MAP in July and August, topping out at over USD 500 per tonne (FOB Tampa), despite continued weakness in the Indian market and increased Chinese exports.
• From September the combination of the seasonal slowdown and dramatically increased ammonia prices led to production curtailments; as a result, low-season prices came down to an average of USD 459 per tonne FOB Tampa in 4Q 2014, significantly better than the average USD 362 per tonne FOB Tampa in 4Q 2013.
• Overall P₂O₅ consumption in 2014 can be characterised by two significant factors: another year of very low P₂O₅ consumption in India, where DAP imports were around 3.6 million tons; and another record year for P₂O₅ consumption in Brazil, driven by increased soybean production, with total imports of phosphate-based fertilizers increasing by over 11%.
• Phosphoric acid prices for Indian DAP producers have increased three times in 2014, from USD 615 per tonne of P₂O₅ at the end of 2013 to USD 681 per tonne of P₂O₅ in 1Q 2014, then to USD 715 per tonne in 2Q and USD 765 per tonne of P₂O₅, CFR, remaining at the same level in 4Q 2014.
• The increase in demand and prices for phosphoric acid and fertilizers pushed up the price of phosphate rock. Global trade in phosphate rock increased significantly in 2014, up 15% year-on-year to 30 million tonnes, primarily due to imports by the USA, Indonesia, Brazil and India. Positive pricing for phosphate-based fertilizers combined with increased import demand brought phosphate rock prices up from USD 106/tonne FOB Morocco (32% P₂O₅) to USD 123/tonne at the end of 2014.
• Global urea trade for the second consecutive year was significantly influenced by much higher exports from China, which was partially balanced by lower urea exports from Egypt and Ukraine. While prices increased in 3Q 2014, downward pressure renewed in the fourth quarter as result of the seasonal slowdown. The average urea price in 2014 was USD 311 per tonne FOB Baltic, versus USD 327 per tonne FOB Baltic in 2013.

Phosphate-Based Products Segment

Result	2014 RUB mln	2013 RUB mln	year-on-year change, %
Revenue	105,832	91,065	16%
Cost of goods sold	(59,285)	(59,588)	(1%)
Gross profit	46,547	31,477	48%

Phosphate-based products segment revenue increased by 16% year-on-year and totalled RUB 105,832 million (USD 2,754 million) in 2014. PhosAgro increased production of phosphate-based fertilizers and MCP by 3.2% year-on-year in 2014, while sales volumes increased by 0.8% year-on-year. Production and sales volumes for phosphate rock and nepheline concentrate decreased in 2014 compared to 2013 by 3.0% and 14.9%, respectively.

The increase in fertilizer sales volumes was primarily due to favourable market conditions and higher demand, which enabled the Company to increase substantially the sales of both concentrated fertilizers and NPKs to Latin America and Russia.

• MAP/DAP fertilizers: MAP exports increased by 79% year-on-year, with price increases in RUB terms of 21.3%. This was partly offset by an 8% decrease in DAP exports. Domestic MAP sales increased by 28% year-on-year. Revenue from DAP/MAP sales increased by 36% year-on-year, from RUB 31,264 million (USD 982 million) in 2013 to RUB 42,654 million (USD 1,110 million) in 2014, representing an overall 10% year-on-year increase in sales volumes and 24% increase in DAP/MAP average revenue per tonne denominated in roubles.
• NPK fertilizers: Domestic NPK sales volumes increased by 38% year-on-year. As a result, revenue from domestic NPK sales increased by 38% year-on-year, from RUB 7,310 million (USD 230 million) in 2013 to RUB 10,067 million (USD 262 million) in 2014. Revenue from NPK export sales decreased by 2% year-on-year, from RUB 13,657 million (USD 429 million) in 2013 to RUB 13,363 million (USD 348 million) in 2014, as a result of a 16% year-on-year decline in NPK export sales volumes, which was partially compensated by a 17% increase in revenue per tonne denominated in roubles.
• Phosphate rock: Total sales of phosphate rock decreased by 15% year-on-year to RUB 14,393 million (USD 375 million) in 2014 due to higher internal consumption of phosphate rock by PhosAgro production sites and lower phosphate rock production volumes.

The phosphate-based products segment’s gross profit for 2014 increased by 48% year-on-year to RUB 46,547 million (USD 1,211 million), resulting in a gross profit margin of 44%, compared to a 35% margin in 2013, which was the result of higher sales denominated in roubles and decreased cost of goods sold.

Revenue per tonne for the principal phosphate-based products

Nitrogen Segment

Result	2014 RUB mln	2013 RUB mln	year-on-year change, %
Revenue	16,626	12,810	30%
Inter-segment transfers	8	99	(92%)
Cost of goods sold	(10,180)	(10,036)	1%
Gross profit	6,454	2,873	125%

Nitrogen segment revenue increased by 30% year-on-year to RUB 16,626 million (USD 433 million) in 2014 from RUB 12,810 million (USD 402 million) in 2013. Production and sales volumes of nitrogen-based fertilizers increased by 5% and 10% year-on-year, respectively, in 2014.

Export revenue from urea increased by 33% year-on-year from RUB 8,988 million (USD 282 million) in 2013 to RUB 11,917 million (USD 310 million) in 2014, due to a 14% increase in sales volumes and an increase in revenue per tonne of 16%. Total revenue from ammonium nitrate (AN) decreased by 5% from RUB 2,620 million (USD 82 million) in 2013 to RUB 2,499 million (USD 65 million) in 2014, due to an 11% decrease in sales volumes, which was balanced by an 8% increase in revenue per tonne.

Nitrogen segment gross profit during 2014 increased by 125% year-on-year to RUB 6,454 million (USD 168 million), mainly as a result of the significant revenue growth caused by the devaluation of the Rouble against the US Dollar, resulting in a gross profit margin of 39%, compared to 22% in 2013.

Revenue per tonne for the principal nitrogen-based fertilizers

Cost of Sales

Item	2014			2013			Change y-on-y
	RUB mln	USD mln	% of cost sales	RUB mln	USD mln	% of cost sales	RUB	%
Materials and services	24,532	638	36%	21,084	662	31%	3,448	16%
Salaries and social contributions	9,754	254	14%	12,022	377	18%	(2,268)	(19%)
Natural gas	7,505	195	11%	6,300	198	9%	1,205	19%
Depreciation	7,332	191	11%	7,147	224	10%	185	3%
Sulphur and sulphuric acid	4,522	118	7%	3,428	108	5%	1,094	32%
Potash	3,915	102	6%	4,114	129	6%	(199)	(5%)
Electricity	3,650	95	5%	3,478	109	5%	172	5%
Ammonia	3,423	89	5%	4,671	147	7%	(1,248)	(27%)
Fuel	2,791	73	4%	4,161	131	6%	(1,370)	(33%)
Heating energy	1,161	30	2%	579	18	1%	582	101%
Ammonium sulphate	839	22	1%	1,157	36	2%	(318)	(27%)
Other items	14	-	-	53	2	-	(39)	(74%)
Change in stock of WIP and finished goods	(617)	(16)	(1%)	(55)	(2)	-	(562)	1022%
Total	68,821	1,791	100%	68,139	2,139	100%	682	1%

PhosAgro’s cost of sales increased by just 1% year-on-year in 2014, to RUB 68,821 million (USD 1,791 million), while overall fertilizers sales volumes increased by 3%. This cost of sales performance was primarily due to the following factors:

· An increase of RUB 3,488 million (USD 90 million), or 16%, year-on-year in the cost of materials and services due to price inflation of 5.9% (PPI 2014 vs 2013), together with a 3.7% increase in production volumes and the outsourcing of certain functions, which was balanced by a significant decrease in personnel costs.

• A 19%, or RUB 2,268 million (USD 59 million), year-on-year decrease in personnel costs as a result of the staff optimisation programme.

· A year-on-year decrease in expenditure on purchased ammonia of RUB 1,248 million (USD 32 million), or 27%, from RUB 4,671 million (USD 147 million) in 2013 to RUB 3,423 million (USD 89 million) in 2014. This was due to year-on-year declines in purchase volumes by 28% partially offset by a 2% increase in prices. PhosAgro was able to decrease purchases from third parties after the modernisation of its ammonia production facilities in Cherepovets, which helped to increase ammonia production by 132 ths tonnes, or by 13% year-on-year in 2014.

· A year-on-year increase in expenditure on natural gas of RUB 1,205 million (USD 31 million), or 19%, to RUB 7,505 million (USD 195 million) in 2014. Natural gas is required primarily for the production of ammonia. The price per cubic metre of natural gas rose by 8%, while natural gas consumption increased by 11% year-on-year. The price increase was due to a 15% tariff increase in the second half of 2013. The 11% growth in volumes of gas purchased was due to a 13% year-on-year increase in ammonia production.

• A year-on-year decrease in expenditure on potash by 5%, or RUB 199 million (USD 5 million), to RUB 3,915 million (USD 102 million) in 2014. This was mainly due to an 18% decrease in potash purchase prices, which was balanced by a 16% increase in potash purchase volumes as a result of an 6% year-on-year increase in NPK production.

· A year-on-year decrease in expenditure on fuel by RUB 1,370 million (USD 36 million), or 33%, from RUB 4,161 million (USD 131 million) in 2013 to RUB 2,791 million (USD 73 million) in 2014. This was in line with the 35% decrease in fuel consumption resulting from the replacement of heating oil purchases with direct purchases of heating energy, as well as decreased open-pit mining.

· The decline in production of NPS/NPK grades with a high nitrogen content led to a decrease in purchases of ammonium sulphate by RUB 318 million (USD 8 million), or 27%, year-on-year.

· Heating energy expenses increased by RUB 582 million (USD 15 million) year-on-year, from RUB 579 million (USD 18 million) in 2013 to RUB 1,161 million (USD 30 million) in 2014, as a result of the replacement of heating oil, which is consumed in boilers generating heating energy at Apatit, with direct purchases of heating energy, providing significant savings on fuel.

· An increase in expenditure on sulphur and sulphuric acid by RUB 1,094 million (USD 28 million), or 32%, year-on-year from RUB 3,428 million (USD 108 million) in 2013 to RUB 4,522 million (USD 118 million) in 2014. This was driven by a 4% increase in volumes consumed due to higher production of phosphate-based fertilizers and feed phosphates, and by a 27% increase in purchase prices.

Administrative expenses rose by 8% year-on-year to RUB 9,081 million (USD 236 million) in 2014 primarily due to the following reasons:

• An increase in payroll expenses by 7%, or RUB 359 million (USD 9 million), as result of restructuring of the Group’s administrative personnel and their relocation to Cherepovets, as well as implementation of the new management KPI incentive system, which led to increased bonuses to key management as result of overall EBITDA growth.
• An increase in professional services by 60%, or RUB 414 million (USD 11 million).

Selling expenses rose by 39% year-on-year, from RUB 8,378 million (USD 263 million) in 2013 to RUB 11,646 million (USD 303 million) in 2014. This was primarily due to the following changes from 2013 to 2014:

• A 6% increase in the Russian Railways infrastructure tariff and operators’ fees from RUB 4,334 million (USD 136 million) to RUB 4,579 million (USD 119 million). An increase in container shipments, combined with a 22% increase in domestic fertiliser sales (largely shipped on a CPT basis), led to higher use of rail freight transport.
• A 104% increase in freight, port and stevedoring expenses from RUB 2,577 million (USD 81 million) to RUB 5,252 million (USD 137 million), mainly due to increased shipments through ports by 9% and an increase in port tariffs.

PhosAgro’s foreign exchange loss increased by 1,019% year-on-year, from RUB 2,999 million (USD 94 million) in 2013 to RUB 33,545 million (USD 873 million) in 2014. The loss from operations with derivative financial instruments was RUB 7,338 million (USD 191 million). That was the result of the significant 72% Rouble depreciation against the US Dollar during 2014 (from RUB 32.7292 at 31/12/2013 to RUB 56.2584 at 31/12/2014), compared to a decline of just 8% during 2013 (from RUB 30.3727 at 31/12/2012 to RUB 32.7292 at 31/12/2013). The foreign exchange loss of over RUB 31.5 billion and loss from operations with derivative financial instruments of over RUB 1.4 billion in 2014 was unrealised, compared to an unrealised foreign exchange loss of just RUB 1.1 billion and an unrealised gain from revaluation of derivatives of RUB 0.1 billion in 2013.

Cash spent on capex in 2014 amounted to RUB 20,549 million (USD 535 million), increasing by 15% in comparison with RUB 17,795 million (USD 559 million) spent in 2013. PhosAgro’s capital expenditure, which consists of additions to property, plant and equipment, amounted to RUB 18,575 million (USD 483 million) for 2014, compared to RUB 17,662 million (USD 555 million) in 2013. Capital expenditure focused on construction of the main ore shaft № 2 at the Kirovsky underground mine, the new 760 ths tonnes/year ammonia plant at PhosAgro-Cherepovets as well as the construction of new storage facilities for liquid ammonia at Balakovo.

Outlook

Market:

• DAP prices have recovered by more than USD 20 in 1Q 2015 to an average of USD 483 per tonne (FOB Tampa), compared to an average of USD 459 in 4Q 2014, thanks to healthy demand from developed agricultural markets.
• At the same time, the decline in feedstock prices has helped to reduce average industry cash costs: ammonia CFR prices in the US and Morocco have come down below USD 500 per tonne from peak levels of USD 655 per tonne in autumn of last year.
• Low imports by India in 2014 have depleted local fertilizer stocks, which combined with a decision by the Indian Government to increase the P&K subsidy in its 2015/2016 budget, should lead to much better local consumption and imports of phosphate-based fertilisers in 2015. We saw increased market activity from Indian buyers already at the end of last year, well ahead of the budget announcement in the end of February. Increased demand from India, combined with healthy demand from the rest of the world, should support DAP pricing throughout the year.

· The new Indian phosphoric acid price was settled recently, at USD 805 per tonne of P₂O₅ CFR India for January-June 2015, representing a further USD 40 increase over the 4Q 2014 price.

· Agricultural commodities performance continues to be a limiting factor for significant fertilizer price increases. At the same time, farmer incentive to maintain high yields on cereals, especially soybeans, with minimum growth in planted acres should support phosphate application.

Company:

· PhosAgro’s substantially improved low cash cost position combined with the Rouble depreciation has further enhanced our competitive advantage, which together with our flexible production makes the Company well placed to respond to any changes in global demand for concentrated or complex fertilizers and NPS. The Company intends to invest further into both increasing capacity and expanding the number of NPK grades it produces.

· The dramatic Rouble depreciation has worsened the economic situation for Russian farmers and for 2015 spring planting season we are offering discounts to local farmers in the range of 15-20% on various fertilizers compared to netback export prices.

• All major development projects are on track, including the new ammonia plant designed to increase cost efficiency and support further expansion of PhosAgro’s complex fertilizer production capacity.

• PhosAgro continued its restructuring process in 1Q 2015 with the launch of a merger of Agro-Cherepovets, PhosAgro AG and Nordic Rus Holding into PhosAgro-Cherepovets. This is aimed at further enhancing cost efficiency and simplifying the corporate structure.
• New trade offices are due to start operations in 1H 2015 in Geneva, Switzerland and Sao Paolo, Brazil.
• The Company plans to decrease leverage ratios in 2015, aiming to end the year closer to the target of 1x net debt/EBITDA.
• The Board of Directors, at its meeting on 28 April 2015, changed PhosAgro’s dividend policy to increase net profit available for distribution as dividends to a range of 30%-50%, from the previous range of 20%-40%.