Russia: more room for manoeuvre, VTB

OREANDA-NEWS. April 30, 2015. Since the CBR’s BoD meeting in March, data releases have provided additional evidence of stabilisation in depreciation expectations and the normalisation of the inflation run rate. First, the March CPI print demonstrated a sizable decline in sequential inflation, from 3.4% MoM SA in January 2015 to 1.4%.

Furthermore, in April the run rate of inflation broke below the 0.2% WoW mark, signalling declining headline inflation driven by weakening demand. Second, the contraction in real wages reached -9.3% YoY in March, evidencing that there is no measurable risk of second round inflationary effects. Importantly, the key decision regarding the public wages freeze was signed into law with the amendments to the budget, which is likely to reduce the risks of public sector-led wage inflation.

Finally, RUB has appreciated 17.5% since the last CBR meeting, supported by the trio of a shrinking geopolitical premium, a sustained recovery on the oil market and resumed international attention to RUB assets. Considering the significantly reduced risks to the CBR’s inflation target, we think that the CBR will go for a 200bp cut.