OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has assigned India-based Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited's (BPCL; BBB-/Stable) proposed notes an expected rating of 'BBB-(EXP)'. The notes are to be issued out of its USD2bn medium-term note programme, rated 'BBB-'.

The notes will constitute direct, unconditional, unsubordinated and unsecured obligations of BPCL. The final rating is contingent upon the receipt of final documents conforming to information already received.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Strong Government Linkage: BPCL has very strong linkages - operationally and strategically - with its 54.9% shareholder, the Indian state (BBB-/Stable). Its rating is equalised with that of India based on Fitch's Parent and Subsidiary Linkage criteria. BPCL continues to sell public distribution kerosene and household LPG at below market prices under a regulated pricing regime, although diesel prices were deregulated in October 2014. We believe that BPCL continues to be a strategically important entity for the state.

Before the deregulation of diesel pricing, the prices of around two thirds of the petroleum products (including retail diesel, public distribution kerosene and household LPG) marketed by BPCL were regulated by the government, and sold at prices lower than international market prices. The government funded these under recoveries (UR; difference between market prices and regulated prices) partly through direct budgetary support and partly by directing upstream oil companies to provide discounts to BPCL.

Significant Player: BPCL is the third-largest refiner in the country with a capacity of 30.5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) that accounted for 14% of capacity in India, and the second-largest marketer of petroleum products with a 21% market share. In the financial year ended March 2014 (FY14), BPCL marketed 34.3mtpa (FY13: 33.7mtpa) domestically, exported 3.1mtpa (FY13: 3.2mtpa) and refined 28.7mtpa (FY13: 28.6mtpa) of petroleum products.

Under Recoveries Impact Working Capital and Debt: BPCL's gross UR in FY14 was INR345bn (FY13: INR390bn), which was covered by government subsidies of INR184bn (FY13: INR219bn) and discounts from upstream players of INR156bn (FY13: INR168bn). BPCL shouldered INR5.1bn of the UR (FY13: INR2.5bn). BPCL's working capital position had been impacted because of delays in the receipt of subsidy payments from the state.

Diesel accounted for 52% of BPCL's FY14 UR, but the amount of diesel UR is likely to decline substantially following the deregulation of diesel pricing. Further, the fall in oil prices to below USD50 per barrel in January 2015 from more than USD100 a year ago, will also help bring down inventory costs. These two events will reduce BPCL's working capital requirements and the short-term debt required to fund it.

High Capex Planned: The company has outlined a fairly high capex of more than INR300bn over the next four years. The largest part of the capex is for the expansion of the Kochi refinery to 15.5mtpa from the current 9.5mtpa at a cost of around INR165bn. The high capex is likely to lead to continued negative free cash flows over the next four to five years.

Upstream Discoveries: BPCL has 18 upstream blocks (eight in India and ten abroad), from which it has some successful discoveries - notably in the Rovuma Basin in Mozambique (in which it has 10% participating interest), in its Brazilian assets (20% participating interest), and West Australian onshore assets in Perth (27.8% stake). The Mozambique asset is assessed at having recoverable resources of 50trn-70trn cubic feet of natural gas, and the investors in the project also plan to set up a natural gas liquefaction plant with two trains with an initial capacity of 5mtpa each.

Credit Profile to Weaken: At FYE14, BPCL had a net leverage (net debt/EBITDA) of 2.8x (FYE13: 3.8x) and interest cover of 4.7x (FYE13: 2.6x). With BPCL likely to generate negative free cash flows due to high capex, Fitch expects the company's net leverage to increase over the next two to three years. BPCL has a comfortable liquidity position with cash and cash equivalents of INR50bn at end-September 2014 (FYE14: INR69bn). The company also enjoys good access to international and domestic capital markets.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch's key assumptions within our rating case for the issuer include:
- The URs and the corresponding budgetary support requirements fall substantially in FY15 and decrease further in FY16
- Profitability falls in FY15 due to inventory losses as crude oil price has fallen

RATING SENSITIVITIES

BPCL's rating is equalised with that of India.

Positive: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action include
-An upgrade of India's sovereign rating provided that BPCL's current linkages with the state are maintained

Negative: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action include
-A downgrade of India's sovereign rating
-A weakening of BPCL's linkages with the state

For the sovereign rating of India, the following sensitivities were outlined by Fitch in its Rating Action Commentary of 9 April 2015.

The main factors that individually or collectively could lead to positive rating action are:

- Fiscal consolidation or fiscal reforms that would cause the general government debt burden to fall more rapidly than expected
- An improved business environment resulting from implemented reforms and structurally lower inflation levels, which would support higher investment and real GDP growth

The main factors that individually or collectively could lead to negative rating action are:

- Deviation from the fiscal consolidation path, leading to persistence of the high public debt burden, or greater-than-expected deterioration in the banking sector's asset quality that would prompt large-scale financial support from the sovereign
- Loose macroeconomic policy settings that cause a return of persistently high inflation levels and a widening current account deficit, which would increase the risk of external funding stress.