Fitch Upgrades Russia's Miratorg to 'B '; Outlook Stable
The rating upgrade reflects Miratorg's solid financial performance in 2014 and our expectations that its consequently improved credit metrics will remain commensurate with a 'B+' rating over the medium term. This is premised on our expectation that in conjunction with a healthy EBITDA level, capex requirements from the company's pork and poultry (unconsolidated) businesses will decline from 2016 and management will remain committed to a conservative capital structure. The ratings also factor in maintained state support to the sector, especially in the form of interest rate subsidies, and successful refinancing of short-term debt maturities as demonstrated in 2014.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Vertically Integrated Business Model
Miratorg's business covers nearly the entire meat production process - from crop growing and fodder production to livestock breeding, slaughtering and product delivery. This enables the company to maintain higher-than-peer operating profit margins and to smooth out volatility. It also enables the company to defend its position as the leading pork producer in Russia.
Lower 2015 EBITDA Margin
We expect Miratorg's consolidated EBITDA margin in 2015 to return to a level close to 2013's 24.6% from an exceptionally high 33.5% of 2014, which was supported by the combination of one-off benefits on costs and sale prices. Consequently, while sales will grow, EBITDA could decline in mid-single digit percentage terms in 2015.
In 2015 the company is likely to face increased costs of fodder and see more stable meat selling prices. In addition, EBITDA margin in 2015-2018 will be diluted by growing sales at the lower-margin distribution unit, spurred by increasing volumes of poultry and beef produced by Miratorg's related parties. Nevertheless, Miratorg's EBITDA margin should remain at around 20%, which is higher than that of non-vertically integrated international peers. We expect EBITDA margin to increase further, should Miratorg consolidate its off-balance sheet poultry business.
Diminishing Risks from Related-Party Projects
In 2014, poultry and beef projects, which are still outside of Miratorg's consolidation scope, became operational. New net loans from Miratorg to related party entities that own and develop these projects fell to RUB2.3bn in 2014 from RUB14.5bn in 2013. Miratorg supports the poultry project with suretyships on its debt (RUB18bn). Since our forecast assumes the ability of the poultry business to repay its debt with internally generated cash flows over 2015-2018, we do not include such suretyships within Miratorg's total debt burden (RUB68.9bn as at end-2014).
Potential Poultry Business Consolidation
Based on the group's track record of developing certain businesses through related parties - and later bringing them on balance sheet, we believe that Miratorg could do the same with the poultry business in 2015 or 2016. This would result in improved transparency of the group. Our rating assumes that such consolidation will not entail large cash outflows. We also assume that the consolidation of the significant additional cash flows from those assets would offset the consolidation of approximately RUB18bn project debt, leaving a largely neutral impact on leverage.
Related Party Beef Projects
Conversely, we expect the beef business, whose debt Miratorg does not guarantee and which is currently in its expansion phase, to remain outside of the consolidation scope over 2015-2018. We do not rule out further cash support from Miratorg through related-party loans but, in our view these should not put material pressure on Miratorg's credit metrics as external long-term financing (without recourse to Miratorg) has been obtained to fund expansion capex.
Positive Free Cash Flow
After some expected deterioration in 2015, due to lower EBITDA and higher capex, we forecast FCF margin to return to mid-single digits from 2016 (2014: 6.8%) when capex needs should decrease. We understand from management that there are no further large expansion plans for the pork and poultry business over the medium term.
Metrics Consistent with Upgrade
Due to an exceptional EBITDA performance in 2014, FFO adjusted leverage declined to 2.9x from 5.7x in 2013. We expect this metric to remain around 3.5x over 2015-2018, which is commensurate with a 'B+' rating. Our calculation excludes the guaranteed debt of the related parties, which would have increased leverage by 1.0x.
State Support to Industry
Being an agricultural producer, Miratorg enjoys a favourable tax regime and receives interest rate subsidies covering around half of its interest payments. This helps the FFO margin and coverage metrics, leading to improved financial flexibility. Historically the difference between subsidy-adjusted and unadjusted FFO fixed charge coverage was around 1.0x-2.0x.
We expect state support to agricultural producers to be maintained, despite deteriorated public finances, as achieving self-sufficiency in food remains one of key objectives of the Russian government. A material reduction in state support could put pressure on Miratorg's cash flows and credit metrics.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Negative: Future developments that could lead to a negative rating action include:
-Gross FFO adjusted leverage consistently above 4.0x (both including and excluding poultry)
-FFO fixed charge cover sustainably below 2.0x and/or FFO fixed charge cover adjusted for government interest rate subsidies below 2.5x
- Any material deterioration in FCF generation driven, for example, by lower EBITDA margin, and larger-than-expected loans to related parties
-Liquidity shortage caused by the limited availability of bank financing in relation to short-term maturities or refinancing at more onerous terms than expected
Positive: An upgrade is unlikely in the coming two years, unless there is an improvement in corporate governance, including better group structure transparency and diminishing cash support to related parties, and subject to:
-Gross FFO adjusted leverage sustainably around 3.0x (both including and excluding poultry)
-FFO fixed charge cover sustainably above 3.0x and/or FFO fixed charge cover adjusted for government interest rate subsidies above 3.5x
-FCF margin close to mid-single digits, coupled with the management's commitment to a conservative capital structure
-Adequate liquidity
LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE
At end-2014 Miratorg's cash, undrawn committed lines and expected FCF were insufficient to cover RUB31.9bn short-term debt. However, the major part of this debt was represented by maturing working capital facilities, which are usually of one-year tenor. We expect Miratorg to extend these facilities upon maturity due to its strong and long-standing relationships with its major lenders - state-owned Russian banks, albeit at higher cost.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch's key assumptions within our rating case for the issuer include:
- Strong double-digit revenue growth in 2015, driven by growing sales volumes of distributed beef and poultry and of own produced pork, and mid-single-digit growth thereafter
- EBITDA margin lower in 2015 and broadly stable thereafter
- Capital intensity close to historical levels in 2015 and not exceeding 4.5% over 2016-2018
- Maintaining interest rate subsidy coverage of at least 35%-40% of interest payments
- No dividends
- Adequate liquidity and refinancing of 2015 short-term maturities at reasonable terms
FULL LIST OF RATING ACTIONS
Agri Business Holding Miratorg LLC
Long-term foreign and local currency IDRs: upgraded to 'B+' from 'B'; Outlook Stable
National Long-term rating upgraded to 'A-(rus)' from 'BBB+(rus)'; Outlook Stable
Miratorg Finance LLC
Foreign currency senior unsecured rating: upgraded to 'B+'/RR4' from 'B'/'RR4'
National Long-term senior unsecured rating: upgraded to 'A-(rus)' from 'BBB+(rus)'
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