Fitch Affirms AgeRio's IDR & Revises Outlook to Negative Following Action on Parent
KEY RATING DRIVERS - IDRS, NATIONAL RATINGS, SUPPORT RATINGS
The rating action mirrors the recent revision of the Outlook on the IDRs of Agerio's parent, the State of Rio de Janeiro (ERio, long-term Foreign Currency and Local Currency IDRs 'BBB-'/Negative Outlook). (See 'Fitch Revises Outlook on Brazilian Subnationals to Negative on Sovereign Revision', dated April 14, 2015 at 'www.fitchratings.com' for more details.) The revision on ERio followed the same rating action on Brazil's sovereign Outlook.
AgeRio's ratings are driven by expected support from ERio and equalized to those of its parent. Its Support Rating of '2' reflects Fitch's view that the probability of support would be high, in case of need. Fitch does not assign a Viability Rating to AgeRio, as it is a development agency.
Fitch views AgeRio as strategically important for ERio, as it acts as the state's development arm and implements its economic development policies. ERio controls 99.99% of AgeRio. Furthermore, by state law, ERio's its stake in AgeRio's voting shares cannot fall below 51%, and it is the financial agent or administrator of three state funds. A track record of frequent capital injections by ERio reinforces Fitch's view. According to Fitch, AgeRio's small size in relation to the GDP and the budget of ERio and budget, makes the cost of potential support relatively low and increases ERio's propensity to support AgeRio.
RATING SENSITIVITIES - IDRS, NATIONAL RATINGS, SUPPORT RATINGS
Changes in Parental Support: AgeRio's ratings are aligned with those of ERio. Therefore, any further changes in ERio's ratings or Rating Outlooks, or willingness to provide support to AgeRio, or in Fitch's evaluation of AgeRio's strategic importance to its parent, would result in changes in AgeRio's ratings.
Fitch has taken the following rating actions:
--Foreign and Local Currency long-term IDR affirmed at 'BBB-', Outlook revised to Negative from Stable;
--Foreign and Local Currency short-term IDR affirmed at 'F3';
--Long-Term National Rating affirmed at 'AA-(bra)', Outlook Stable;
--Short-Term National Rating affirmed at 'F1+(bra)';
--Support Rating (SR) affirmed at '2'.
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