Fitch Upgrades 4 and Affirms 8 Classes of Santander Drive Auto Receivables Trust
2013-3
--Class A-3 affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class B upgraded to 'AAAsf' from 'AAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class C upgraded to 'AAsf' from 'Asf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class D upgraded to 'Asf' from 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class E upgraded to 'BBBsf' from 'BBsf'; Outlook Stable.
2014-2
--Class A-2-A affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class A-2-B affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class A-3 affirmed at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class B placed on Rating Watch Positive at 'AAsf';
--Class C affirmed at 'Asf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class D affirmed at 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class E affirmed at 'BBsf'; Outlook Stable.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The rating actions are based on available credit enhancement and loss performance. The collateral pools continue to perform within Fitch's expectations. Under the credit enhancement structures, the securities are able to withstand stress scenarios consistent with the current rating and make full payments to investors in accordance with the terms of the documents.
Fitch's review is based on the initial base case cumulative net loss (CNL) estimate of 16.45% for the 2014-2 transaction. For the 2013-3, transaction, Fitch revised its loss proxy from 16.15% to 15.35%, as losses are currently extrapolating below Fitch's prior base case loss proxy assigned at the last review of the transaction. Based on current loss trends, Fitch projects CNL for both transactions to be in the 13-16% range.
The upgrades in the 2013-3 transaction reflect the improved loss coverage available to the notes. Placing class B in the 2014-2 transaction on Rating Watch Positive reflects Fitch's expectation that this note will likely be eligible for a single-category upgrade given additional amortization over the next six months. Further, Fitch will continue to monitor both transactions and may take additional rating actions within this timeframe.
The ratings reflect the quality of Santander Consumer USA, Inc.'s retail auto loan originations, the adequacy of its servicing capabilities, and the sound financial and legal structure of the transaction.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Unanticipated increases in the frequency of defaults and loss severity could produce loss levels higher than the current projected base case loss proxies and impact available loss coverage and multiples levels for both transactions. Lower loss coverage could impact ratings and Rating Outlooks, depending on the extent of the decline in coverage.
In the 2013-3 transaction, classes A, B and C demonstrated limited sensitivity to various loss-timing scenarios while classes D and E show muted growth in their respective rating loss multiples under a back-ended loss timing scenario. In the 2014-2 transaction, the class A and B notes demonstrated limited sensitivity to various loss-timing scenarios while classes C, D and E exhibit declines in loss coverage multiples under a back-ended loss timing scenario.
To date, the transactions have exhibited strong performance with losses within Fitch's initial expectations, with rising loss coverage and multiple levels consistent with the current ratings. A material deterioration in performance would have to occur within the asset pool to have potential negative impact on the outstanding ratings.
Fitch's analyses of the Representation and Warranties (R&W) of these transactions can be found in the respective appendices listed below. These R&W are compared to those of typical R&W for the asset class as detailed in the special report 'Representations, Warranties, and Enforcement Mechanisms in Global Structured Finance Transactions' dated March 26, 2015.
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